The Five: Who is at risk of missing TOUR Championship?

Who’s fighting for their postseason lives this week at the BMW Championship? Only 30 players will advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship and more than a few big names are currently outside that threshold, hoping for a strong performance at Bellerive Country Club to propel them to Atlanta.

The implications of this tournament run deeper than just a berth into the FedExCup Playoffs finale. The top six on the Presidents Cup U.S. Team will be finalized on Sunday night, with several spots still up for grabs. A berth into the TOUR Championship also ensures access to the 2027 major championships.

So who is on the outside looking in? And what do they need to do this week in St. Louis to advance to Atlanta? Here’s a look at five notable names on the bubble.

Justin Thomas

• FedExCup rank: 44th
• Minimum finish required to reach top 30: solo seventh

At risk of missing the TOUR Championship for just the second time in the last decade, Thomas will need to cultivate something he’s done very little of this season: a peak week. Thomas has had a steady season, far from the trials he went through back in 2022-23 when he missed the Playoffs. Yet, he had more top-10 finishes that season than he has amassed so far in 2026.

Thomas has only two top 10s this year and is on pace for a career low. He’s had fewer than six in a season just once before. That’s not to say Thomas is playing poorly. He has the same number of top 25s (nine) as he did a year ago. Except in 2025, he finished 10th or better in eight of those top 25s. He hasn’t consistently been able to put together all parts of his game and ride it to a top finish.

So it’s only fair that if he hopes to reach the final stop on the PGA TOUR calendar, he will need a top 10 and then some. Mathematically, he requires a minimum finish of solo seventh or better, though he will likely need a top five to feel fully comfortable.

Patrick Cantlay

• FedExCup rank: 43rd
• Minimum finish required to reach top 30: solo seventh

The former FedExCup champion and last year’s runner-up, Cantlay is at risk of missing the TOUR Championship. Could he miss the Presidents Cup, too? The veteran is running multiple races as this season concludes. He’s outside both bubbles, 43rd in the FedExCup and 17th in the U.S. Presidents Cup standings.

Both races share a common checkpoint: a top finish at the BMW Championship. Cantlay needs at least a solo seventh to qualify for his sixth consecutive TOUR Championship and ninth in the last 10 years. Cantlay would need to win to jump into the top 12 of the Presidents Cup standings.

It’s possible Cantlay could make the Presidents Cup team without advancing to the TOUR Championship. His 10-4-0 career record makes his case compelling even if his recent form is lacking, though a strong finish and TOUR Championship berth would go a long way in assuaging those concerns.

Gary Woodland

• FedExCup rank: 31st
• Minimum finish required to reach top 30: solo 48th

Woodland has already reached uncharted territory, automatically qualifying for next year’s Signature Events for the first time since they were created. Now, he could reach the TOUR Championship for the first time since 2019, the year he won the U.S. Open.

The PGA TOUR no longer awards Comeback Player of the Year, but if it did, Woodland would be the runaway winner. In his second full season since brain surgery, Woodland’s game fully turned a corner and coalesced into a momentous victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Woodland has backed up that victory with four other top 10s, including a T7 at the U.S. Open.

Woodland has the easiest path of any player outside the top 30, needing only a solo 48th (out of 50 players) to have a chance. That said, he will have a close eye on No. 30 Rickie Fowler. If Woodland can beat Fowler, he will have a good chance of advancing to the TOUR Championship.

Robert MacIntyre

• FedExCup rank: 36th
• Minimum finish required to reach top 30: three-way tie for 15th

What is the state of MacIntyre’s game and body after he shot 82 in the first round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship and withdrew?

Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis reported that MacIntyre is dealing with a cyst in “one of his knees,” which has caused discomfort for several weeks. Lewis added that MacIntyre underwent an MRI, which revealed the cyst, and was expected to undergo treatment over the last few days with hopes of playing the BMW Championship.

If MacIntyre gives it a go at Bellerive Country Club, he will need to play well to keep his season alive. He requires at least a three-way tie for 15th. MacIntyre has done that in three of his last six starts.

Sahith Theegala

• FedExCup rank: 46th
• Minimum finish required to reach top 30: three-way tie for second

Theegala’s position in the FedExCup is the worst he’s been all season. The American, who has been light on comfort as he battled injuries and inconsistency in recent seasons, was steady from the start. He began the year with two top 10s in his first three starts, but has only two top 10s since and none after the Texas Children’s Houston Open in March. That’s what has caused the slide down to 46th.

To put a stop to it, Theegala will need his best result of the season. It’s a simple directive this week. Finish first or second, or you’re going home early.

If Theegala can somehow pull off the feat, he will return to the TOUR Championship for the third time. He finished runner-up in his last TOUR Championship start in 2024.