With Torrey Pines now in the rearview mirror, the PGA TOUR turns the page to Super Bowl week and TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open.

This event is about more than elite golf. The atmosphere is epic. Handicappers have to account for the roars, the pressure and the chaos. The question isn’t just who can handle the course. It’s who can handle the moment.

At just over 7,200 yards, and as a par 71 following Tom Weiskopf’s remodel, TPC Scottsdale puts a premium on ball-striking. There’s a common theme among past champions: elite ball striking entering the week, paired with a timely spike on the greens.

Scottie Scheffler (+210), Brooks Koepka (+5000), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) are all multiple-time winners here. None has built a reputation as an elite putter, yet each dominated this course tee-to-green and got hot on the greens when it mattered. That’s the recipe for success at TPC Scottsdale.

The underlying metrics support it. Fairways are hit at a below-average clip, while greens in regulation sit above TOUR norms. Translation: everyone finds greens, so separation comes from quality ball-striking and proximity.

Based on Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over the last 36 rounds (via Betsperts), the top profiles in this field are:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Austin Smotherman
4. Kurt Kitayama
5. Pierceson Coody

Of that group, Coody (+5400) might be the most intriguing number on the board. He dominated on the Korn Ferry Tour and has carried that momentum onto the PGA TOUR this season. Two top-three finishes in seven starts, made the cut each week, and three straight top 20s.

Could he win his first TOUR event against a field this deep? Maybe that’s ambitious, especially in his debut here. That’s why I’m more interested in Coody in placement markets. A Top 20 around +275 or a Top 40 near even money makes more sense. He’s finished inside the Top 40 in seven of his last eight starts, and for bettors looking to manage risk, that’s the cleanest way to play him.

Then there’s Scheffler.

Almost any model you run has him sitting at the top. He’s the best golfer in the world, and he’s a perfect fit for this golf course. Scheffler is gaining an absurd +3.09 strokes per round overall, with the next closest player, Ben Griffin, trailing well behind. That gap explains the short outright price in such a loaded field.

So, how do you actually bet Scheffler?

His Top 10 price is heavily juiced, and the outright doesn’t offer much breathing room. That pushes us toward derivative markets.

Before getting there, it’s also worth noting that fading golfers can matter just as much as finding targets. With water in play on several holes, especially down the back nine, ball flight becomes a separator. Natural cutters tend to have an edge, while right-to-left players face a tougher visual on multiple tee shots.

Course history at TPC Scottsdale also carries weight. Success tends to repeat, and struggles often linger. Among golfers with at least six rounds here, these players have lost the most strokes on average:

1. Vince Whaley
2. Chad Ramey
3. Davis Riley
4. Austin Eckroat
5. Stephan Jaeger

The forecast is about as friendly as it gets through the first three rounds. Expect highs around 78 degrees with minimal wind from Thursday through Saturday, which should keep scoring aggressive. Sunday is where things change. Winds are projected to creep up toward 11 mph, adding a bit more bite to the finishing stretch. That makes early positioning even more critical. Getting out in front before conditions firm up could be a real edge this week.

Best value on the board

Scottie Scheffler, First Round Top 10 +144

Quick shoutout to Byron Lindeque and the crew over at Back 9 Bets for helping surface this angle early in the week. Sometimes it’s one sharp conversation that points you toward the right market, and this was one of those spots.

After digging through the numbers, the best way to capitalize on Scheffler this week is early. In 22 career rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s gained +2.82 strokes on the field. Across five appearances, he’s gained an impressive +3.04 per first round.

His First Round Leader price is understandably short, but the First Round Top 10 market still offers room to work and a ton of value. Scheffler comes out firing more often than not, and this setup plays directly into his strengths.

Nick Taylor, First Round Leader +7000 | Nick Taylor, First Round Top 10 +640

Taylor profiles as a classic first-round type here. He’s a course-stickiness golfer. Specific venues unlock his game regardless of form, and TPC Scottsdale is one of them.

The results speak for themselves. He won here in 2024 and followed that up with a runner-up finish in 2023, proving this place clearly fits his eye. Across his starts at TPC Scottsdale, Taylor is gaining +0.67 strokes on average, and +0.45 per round overall, but that number jumps to +3.44 strokes in opening rounds. That’s exactly the spike you need when shopping in the FRL market.

Recent history backs it up, too. He grabbed the 18-hole lead here in 2024 and was second after Thursday in 2023. Add the fact that he already owns a first-round lead earlier this season, and the case is straightforward. When Taylor shows up for courses he likes, he tends to arrive quickly. That makes him a very real threat to be sitting near the top again after Day 1.