The 2026 PGA TOUR Season is officially underway, and the first stop brings us to the fabulous Sony Open in Hawaii. Players tee off in Honolulu at Waialae Country Club – the first of 34 Regular Season events awarding 500 FedExCup points and $1.64 million to the winner.

Nick Taylor (+4500 at DraftKings Sportsbook) returns as the defending champion for his 10th career start at Waialae, and his recent history here reads like a blueprint for success. In his last four appearances at the Sony Open, Taylor finished first (2025), T7 (2024), T7 (2023) and T11 (2021), making him one of the steadiest players in the field. Now he will be trying to do something that hasn’t been done in over a decade: successfully defend a Sony Open title, something last accomplished in 2015 by Jimmy Walker.

At 7,044 yards, the par-70 Waialae is a parkland-style coastal layout designed by Seth Raynor. With thick Bermuda grass rough, the missed fairway penalty is higher than the TOUR average. The greens are large, so the high Greens in Regulation percentage may confuse many. Greens are hit at a high rate, but at Waialae, it’s all about proximity, and playing from the rough makes getting it close difficult.

With an average winning score hovering around 19-under, despite its difficult layout, birdies will still need to be made. That’s done with smart decisions and the ability to make shots all over the course. There’s no doubt about it, Waialae is a shot-maker’s golf course.

Many golfers have referred to how important course management is here. Denny McCarthy (+6000) put it best when describing the challenge: “Fairways are really firm,” he said. “You get the crosswinds. Bermuda rough is up. Just involves a lot of thinking, course management, which is more suited to my game.”

Waialae is simply a course that golfers cannot overpower. It’s tight, it turns with plenty of doglegs, and even well-struck drives can roll through the firm fairways.

The profile I’m targeting this week is pretty clear: accurate drivers who keep it in the fairway and elite wedge players who can consistently give themselves makeable birdie looks.

Ball-striking always matters, but at Waialae, you also have to make putts, especially on Bermuda. That’s exactly why guys like McCarthy and Chris Kirk (+4000) consistently feel comfortable here. It’s strategy golf on Bermuda grass.

Russell Henley (+1100) meets all of the criteria for being a perfect fit at Waialae this week. He hits fairways at a 68 percent clip, and even when he misses, they are narrow misses — ranking third in terms of distance from the edge of the fairway. In 2025, he was first in proximity from 75-100 yards and fifth from 50-125 yards, which is exactly where most of the approaches come from.

Henley has also proven he thrives on short, positional courses where accuracy matters more than power. Even with a less-than-stellar week off the tee, he finished T8 at the RBC Heritage. He also posted a T5 at Pebble Beach, another coastal course that rewards strategy and ball placement.

He won this event in his rookie debut back in 2013, and he’s also won on Bermuda. The defending Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard champion had some of his best finishes on Bermuda last season.

He’s a past Sony Open champion with multiple top-10 finishes here. It’s hard to find a better course fit.

Mac Messiner (+7500) fits Waialae almost as nicely as Henley. He’s not long off the tee (about 290 yards), so his game is built around fairways and greens. Last season, he hit 60% of fairways and over 67% GIR, which plays well on a course that punishes missed fairways.

His form on similar courses is also solid. He finished T18 at the RSM Classic and solo second at the Wyndham Championship. If he goes on to win, he’d become the third golfer to earn his first TOUR win at this event.

Best value on the board: Seamus Power (+12500)

Seamus Power might be the most interesting value play on the board this week. He’s the kind of golfer who has real win equity at Waialae. Looking at the board starting at the +6000 range, Power has more win equity than many around.

Power hasn’t played in an event since November, so it’s tough to know exactly which version will show up in Honolulu. However, the last time we saw him, his game was trending and seemed to be coming back. He finished T11 at the Bermuda Championship and followed it with a T7 at The RSM Classic.

At this price, he’s clearly a long shot to win, but the profile matches Waialae. Over his last 36 rounds, Power ranks 23rd in the field in driving accuracy and 20th in GIR. He’s also inside the top 20 from 75-125 yards, the most common approach range at Waialae. He’s a strong lag putter and has historically been comfortable on Bermuda greens.

The number being long isn’t random, though. Power has dealt with injuries the past two seasons. Those injuries led to poor finishes and a drop in the world rankings from 27th to 160th. He said he finally feels healthy again, and he’s motivated to get back to his previous ranking.

With Power, it’s simple: can he create enough looks and get streaky with the putter? If he does, he’s in it to win. Simple as that.

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