Draws and Fades: Round out Sunday betting card with Ben Griffin as Ben James leads in Mexico

The third round of the World Wide Technology Championship is in the books as Ben James (-275) remains atop the leaderboard, carrying a commanding four-stroke lead at 21 under over Ryan Gerard (+750) into the final round.

Checking in on the slips we put in after Friday's second round, we placed a small wager on Gerard to win outright and another on Denny McCarthy (+2250) in the winner without James and Gerard market. Both wagers are looking pretty good heading into Sunday. Gerard has some ground to make up, but McCarthy is in a particularly favorable position. If he can move up the leaderboard or hold his current position (T3 at 16 under) without anyone tying him, we could be looking at a nice return on that ticket.

Even though James put together another solid round, there were some weak spots in the armor of a golfer who has been playing absolutely lights-out over his previous five rounds. The biggest factor in James’ recent run has been his putter, which has been nearly unflappable. It feels like when he’s not throwing darts to within 5 feet, he’s draining lengthy putts to capitalize on his birdie opportunities.

However, we saw something different during Saturday’s third round. For the first time all tournament, James lost strokes on the greens. Yes, he still managed to put together a strong round and maintain his four-stroke lead, but his putter wasn’t nearly as reliable as it had been. That could open the door for someone to make a run on Sunday.

According to DataGolf.com, James has a 73.4% chance of picking up his first PGA Tour victory in Los Cabos. That largely matches the implied probability of the -275 outright odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Given the position we’re in right now, I don’t see any reason to add another golfer to our outright portfolio. We already have Gerard to win and McCarthy in the winner without James and Gerard market. That’s enough for me to feel comfortable entering the final round.

And if James ends up winning, I’m perfectly fine with that outcome. The kid is an absolute baller, and seeing him pick up his first Tour victory would be pretty sick.

That brings me to the placement markets, where I think there are a few golfers offering some value to finish inside the top 20.

Ben Griffin, Top 20 (+195, FanDuel)

This feels like one of the chalkier bets I could make, but getting this price on the defending champion, who sits just two strokes outside the top 20, feels like really good value.

Griffin (T27 at 10 under) has been criminally undervalued from a betting standpoint lately. He played some excellent golf last week, finishing T4 at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. The biggest reason wasn’t his driving prowess, which everyone knows about, or even his irons. It was how well he performed with the flat stick, something he’d been searching for throughout much of last season.

Fast-forward to this week at El Cardonal at Diamante and his putter has been downright awful in comparison to last week. He’s lost strokes on the greens and left plenty of birdie opportunities out there, particularly on the par 5s, where he’s made far too many pars.

Now, you might be asking why I’d back someone to produce a monster final round when he hasn’t put everything together through three rounds (70-67-69). Well, Griffin is one of the best final-round golfers in this field from a Strokes Gained perspective. He’s also one of the most talented players here. Unlike many golfers in this field, Griffin isn’t fighting for FedExCup security or a spot in the 2027 early-season Signature Events. He can go out there, play loose and free and attack this golf course without any added pressure.

Griffin is always capable of one explosive round. Why not have it come on Sunday?

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