Draws and Fades: Expect a bounce back from Rory McIlroy at East Lake

ATLANTA – Watch out for Rory McIlroy.

McIlroy was far from making a big move on Thursday at the TOUR Championship, firing a 2-under 70, but the scorecard doesn’t always tell the full story. The rollercoaster included three bogeys and five birdies. So why the attention? McIlroy finished the day T20 in a 29-man field.

Following the first round in Atlanta, Rory is ranked third in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in SG: Off-the-Tee. Fresh off a week at the BMW Championship where he finished four rounds ranked fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, I’m definitely paying attention to his ball-striking. The three-time FedExCup champion (2016, 2019, 2022) has more than doubled his odds to win the tournament. Prior to teeing off in Round 1, McIlroy was +900 at DraftKings Sportsbook and now is +2150 to win.

I’m not sure McIlroy will make it all the way to the winner’s circle, but his odds of finishing in the top five are +255. With his current combination of off-the-tee and iron play, I love backing him before Friday’s round begins.

Chris Gotterup is a player who needed to improve his iron play after Bellerive. Further up the odds board at +840 and two strokes behind leader, Min Woo Lee, Gotterup hit 15 of 18 greens in Round 1. With three wins to date in 2026, Gotterup has become one of the TOUR’s big game hunters. Within striking distance, he is another name to back as a potential winner or a top-five finish (+118).

Collin Morikawa (+900) and Viktor Hovland (+1100) finished Round 1 ranked first and second in SG: Putting. Together, they made 264 feet of putts. Considering both of them fall outside the top 60 on TOUR this season in strokes gained on the greens, I’m staying away from these two at the top of the leaderboard. East Lake has always been a venue where you need a great mix of ball-striking and putting. Hovland and Morikawa were ranked 20th and 21st for SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday, and both struggled primarily with their short game.

Since Andrew Green’s renovation, around-the-green acumen has become a greater influence on the final leaderboard. Asking both of them to hole another 250 feet of putts seems very unlikely alongside an around-the-green deficiency. Winning the TOUR Championship takes a full complement of skills, and even though Hovland and Morikawa are in great position after Round 1, I’ll pass on tailing these two until I see a drastic improvement in their short game.

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