Draws and Fades: Jackson Koivun leads but veterans like Billy Horschel lurk at 3M Open

How can you not be romantic about the beautiful game of golf?

Regardless of who your favorite player is, what we’ve seen through three rounds of the 3M Open has been nothing short of amazing.

First, it was Ben Kohles (+700 at DraftKings Sportsbook) firing a brilliant 62 in the opening round. Then Michael Kim (+3300) broke the course record and joined the sub-60 club with a dazzling, effortless 59. In the third round, it was new PGA TOUR member Jackson Koivun who stole the show, firing a bogey-free 61 to take a three-stroke lead into the fourth and final round. He’s now -155 to get his first career win Sunday in Minnesota.

With calm conditions and softer greens, the birdies were out there. Eight golfers shot 64 or better in the third round, 15 of the 18 holes played under par and the scoring average was 3.56 strokes under par. That was more than two strokes lower than the average over the first two rounds.

Even world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+1300) joined the birdie brigade. He made seven birdies and an eagle on his way to a 7-under 64, moving into a tie for ninth place, just six strokes off the lead heading into the final round.

That said, no one should get comfortable because the birdies are out there.

Sunday should bring a few more nerves for the golfers trying to claim a PGA TOUR title. The afternoon wave will have to deal with winds of 8 to 13 mph and gusts as high as 18 mph. There is also a chance of isolated thunderstorms, which could soften the course even more if they roll through the area.

Draws

Billy Horschel, Top 5 including ties (+185)

Lately, there has been more negative conversation about Billy Horschel’s (+4000) game than positive. It’s hard to speak highly of someone who has more missed cuts than top-40 finishes this season.

Horschel entered the week coming off three consecutive missed cuts and had missed the cut in six of his previous eight starts. The irons weren’t necessarily the problem. He had gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts. It was a combination of poor putting and poor play off the tee.

This week has been very different.

Horschel has been one of the best ball-strikers in the field. Even with his putter not fully cooperating, he is 15-under and tied for sixth. He has gained strokes ball-striking in all three rounds and has been incredibly steady.

That continued Saturday when he hit 16 of 18 greens in regulation, including all nine greens on the back nine.

Horschel is a momentum golfer. When things are going well, his putter gets better, his attitude gets better and his overall game follows.

I’m going to take a little nibble on him to finish inside the top five. Things haven’t gone particularly well for him lately, but Horschel knows how to win golf tournaments and he knows how to close.

I’m adding ties just in case he finishes in a crowded group at T3, T4 or T5.

Gary Woodland, Top 20 (-115)

Normally, I would be looking for someone to fade here, but I’m having a tough time not grabbing more shares of Gary Woodland.

It feels like Woodland could explode and shoot 62 in the final round. There have just been a few small hiccups keeping him from being a top-10 finisher.

Look at the second round. Woodland was cruising after birdieing two of his first five holes, then made a triple bogey on the seventh. He settled down again on the back nine and was 2-under in the back on the 16th tee before making double.

Another mistake came in the third round when he was 5-under before bogeying the easy par-5 18th.

Those mistakes have been frustrating, but Woodland has also shown some insane flashes. There have been stretches where he has been completely dialed with both his driver and irons. It has honestly been a thing of beauty.

There is some volatility in his game, but when Woodland gets rolling, he can get streaky.

The real question is whether he can keep the ball in the fairway. For the most part, he has. Woodland hit 10 of 14 fairways in the first round, then 12 of 14 in both the second and third rounds.

Most of his biggest mistakes have come from being overly aggressive with his approach shots. If he can eliminate those lapses for one round, I truly believe he can climb the leaderboard quickly and finish somewhere around T8 or T9.

He enters the final round tied for 19th, giving us a little value in the top-20 market.

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