Draws and Fades: Tommy Fleetwood positioned for a weekend charge at Muirfield Village

Halfway through the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, there is literal carnage all over the course.

Golfers are posting some massive numbers. Rickie Fowler shot 82 today. Akshay Bhatia shot 80. Daniel Berger shot 81. Even Jordan Spieth posted a 79.

The course is playing tough, and there are big scores all over the leaderboard. Then, you look at the top of the leaderboard, and you see J.T. Poston (+200) sitting there as the 36-hole leader after firing one of the most impressive 7-under 65s you’ll see.

It almost felt like Poston was playing an entirely different golf course. A 65, while the round average is 74.11, is actually insane. Poston gained 9.11 strokes on the field (via DataGolf), which was four strokes more than Ryan Gerard (+290), who gained the second most strokes today.

According to DataGolf, Poston has a 31.8% chance to win, while Gerard sits at 23.8%. Together, they’re eating up more than 55% of the win probability.

Even with those projections, I’m having a hard time finding much value on either of them in the outright market.

This feels a little like the PGA Championship after 36 holes. At that point, it looked like we could kind of guess who was going to win. Then Aaron Rai went out and fired a big final round and usurped those who failed to create any separation.

I went to play the “no” price on Poston’s outright prop, but the -400 number slapped me in the face and told me to look for another bet.

So here we are.

Eric Cole to win (+3400)

Before you bet this, or even seriously consider it, just know I think this is a long shot.

That said, I do think we are seeing enough good signs from Eric Cole's game to at least consider him this week.

He finished second at the Charles Schwab Challenge after a fantastic weekend of golf. Russell Henley was just a madman and chased him down, eventually beating him in a playoff. Even in the loss, Cole’s numbers were striking. He was a big gainer putting and a big gainer in total, despite not really hitting a ton of fairways.

That is always going to be the knock on Cole. He does not hit fairways as consistently as some of the golfers ahead of him, but he has continued to find ways to be successful.

In the first round this week, he finished even par while barely finding fairways. Then, in the second round, the accuracy improved, and he went out and posted one of the rounds of the day.

Cole has enough spike-potential to shoot a 6-under or 7-under round as Poston did. Why? Because when he starts hitting fairways, his game becomes dangerous. He hits greens and gives himself looks. And with the way he’s putting that’s all he really needs.

In two of his last three tournaments, he has gained more than 1.3 strokes putting. In those events, he finished T6 and second.

I just don’t want any part of the top two guys right now, and the price on Cole is big enough to make a small sprinkle worth considering. Even if it ends up being a bad bet, it is not a large investment, with a ton of upside.

End of Round 3 Leader: Tommy Fleetwood (+1300)

This is another bet I would suggest taking lightly. Round leader bets are difficult to hit, and Tommy Fleetwood (+950) has a lot of ground to make up after a less-than-stellar second round.

Fleetwood shot 1-over 73, and the irons were basically a mess all day. He lost strokes on approach, and he simply was just not good enough.

But the one thing that has carried from round one to round two has been the driver.

In round one, when Fleetwood fired a 5-under 67, he hit 12 of 14 fairways. Then in round two, even while struggling with the irons, he hit nine of 14 fairways.

We have seen golfers get beaten up all over this golf course, but the guys who have had success are the ones consistently playing from the fairway. Muirfield Village rewards accuracy off the tee. Fleetwood lives in the fairways.

I am not saying he wins this golf tournament, but he has a great chance to have a big round given the fact that his drive is always down the middle of the fairway.

This is simply a skill play that is backed by a really nice number.