NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. — The tale of two waves hit hard on Moving Day at Aronimink, producing a far more dramatic split than anything we saw over the first two rounds.

Those who snuck across the cut line and teed off before noon Saturday were handed the most favorable scoring conditions of the week. Winds settled under 20 mph and warmer temperatures finally offered something close to comfort for players who entered the weekend over par.

Rory McIlroy stole the show with a third-round 66 to vault to 3-under, just off the lead. Those paying attention here two nights ago saw me mention him at +9000 after his opening round. Congratulations to anyone holding that lottery ticket.

Other names highlighted along the way included distressed assets like Ludvig Åberg, Sam Burns and, after Round 2, Xander Schauffele. Every one of them enters Sunday within five shots of the lead.

Honestly, it almost feels like we are right back at the post-Round 1 leaderboard with how many players still have a realistic path to the Wanamaker Trophy. There are still blue-chip names available at attractive prices that could absolutely lift the trophy with something in the neighborhood of a 66. There are also a few undervalued names near the top worth a much closer look.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the odds ahead of the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship:

• Jon Rahm +465
• Alex Smalley +490
• Ludvig Åberg +600
• Rory McIlroy +760
• Xander Schauffele +1225
• Nick Taylor +1550
• Scottie Scheffler +1650
• Aaron Rai +1800
• Patrick Reed +1900
• Maverick McNealy +2450
• Matthias Schmid +2600
• Chris Gotterup +3800
• Hideki Matsuyama +4000
• Justin Rose +4000

Draws

Patrick Reed (+1900)

With such a crowded pack still alive, I’m looking for someone who relishes the chance to lean into chaos and pressure. Looking for a touch more value than names like Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy, I stop immediately at Patrick Reed at 19/1.

Reed loves a fight and has spoken often lately about how much he enjoys the heat of competition in big events. It has become part of the brand as he continues a trophy-laden run on the DP World Tour while hoping to play his way back onto the PGA TOUR next season.

We know he has the moxie and resolve to make a move on Sunday, but he has also brought the game this week. Reed gained 1.6 strokes around the greens Saturday and has improved his iron play to more than five strokes gained on approach for the week.

As temperatures rise Sunday and these greens begin to show signs of baking out, give me the guy with one of the most tactical short games in the world.

Hideki Matsuyama, Top 5 (+390)

For those looking for an extra sprinkle beyond the outrights, you can still get nearly 4/1 on another major champion to finish inside the top five and ties.

Matsuyama sits at 2-under, four shots back, and could easily be closer if not for a few bad breaks Saturday at Aronimink.

Despite some volatile bogeys, Matsuyama has the type of major pedigree that much of this leaderboard lacks. The game is there, too. For the week, he ranks inside the top 25 in approach, around the greens and putting, while losing just 0.6 strokes off the tee.

In a sneaky-good pairing with Chris Gotterup before the afternoon wind machine really gets going, look for Matsuyama to quietly work his way near the top of this crowded board.

Loose change

With so many names still hanging around, there are a few more fliers worth mentioning as we barrel into what should be a tremendous Sunday finish.

• For one, getting Rory McIlroy at +770 is basically buying him at his pre-tournament number, except now he is white hot after consecutive low rounds and sits just three back.
• I’ve been touting Xander Schauffele all week and he remains available at +1225 outright, plus +145 for a top five after firing a Saturday 66.
• Justin Rose at +4000 also feels impossible to ignore given how he has shown up on major Sundays recently. He is also available at +415 for a top five.
• Brooks Koepka feels like a reach at +6100 outright, but +215 for a top 10? If he finds even a flicker of momentum with the putter, I’m interested.

Fades

Alex Smalley

I’ve been kind enough to leave fades out all week, but this one felt unavoidable.

Smalley has openly talked throughout the week about not being someone who naturally thrives in the spotlight. And in Saturday’s final group, surrounded by cameras, he came out sputtering with three bogeys in his first four holes. It wasn’t until the crowds thinned and the afternoon wore on that he seemed to settle into himself.

To his credit, he responded with an impressive back-nine 31 while one of the few players still on the course late, fully earning another crack in Sunday’s final pairing.

But the lights are about to get 10 times brighter.

Not only is Smalley chasing his first major championship. He is chasing his first professional victory anywhere, whether that be on the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry Tour or otherwise. It's just too much, too soon.