AUGUSTA, Ga. — If history is any indication, the field of true contenders to win the Masters has been trimmed from 91 to a sweet 16.

Over the last two decades, 18 of the 20 Masters champions have been T10 or better after the opening round. Likewise, 18 of the last 20 winners have been within four shots of the lead after 18 holes. Admittedly, Rory McIlroy broke both trends last year en route to his historic victory at Augusta National Golf Club. But those on the outside looking in still face an uphill battle in trying to overcome some significant trend inertia.

In all likelihood, the winner of the 2026 Masters is one of the 16 players currently in red figures. The large contingent of folks at 1-under, including Tommy Fleetwood and Gary Woodland, satisfies both historical trends mentioned above. Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite to buck another historical trend, as he’s in line to become the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Woods in 2002 after grabbing a share of the lead after an opening-round 67.

Updated odds to win the Masters

• +240: Rory McIlroy (-5)
• +340: Scottie Scheffler (-2)
• +950: Sam Burns (-5)
• +1000: Xander Schauffele (-2)
• +1500: Patrick Reed (-3)
• +1900: Justin Rose (-2)

I’m sticking to my pre-tournament pick that Xander Schauffele will slip into his first green jacket, as he did everything he needed to in an opening-round 70 that kept the leaders within reach while keeping the heat on bigger names like McIlroy and Scheffler. His +1000 price is a discount off his pre-tournament number, but I still don’t think he’s going anywhere.

With 18 holes in the books and a crispy setup poised to challenge players over the next three rounds, there are some spots for in-play value heading into Friday. Let’s dive in:

Round 2 3-ball: Tommy Fleetwood (+140) over Patrick Reed and Akshay Bhatia

For part of the afternoon, Fleetwood looked like he would challenge for the lead as he reached 4-under at the turn. He gave a few back on the second nine, but after a 1-under 71, he’s still among the group of 16 who can win this thing while fitting historical trends.

Reed’s eyes light up at the prospect of a firmer and faster Augusta National, as course conditions more closely resemble those from his 2018 victory. Still, he caught a few good breaks in his opening 69, including an eagle from off the green on No. 2 and another from long range on No. 8. I don’t think he’ll fade from contention, but I could envision him stalling out a bit simply from regression. Bhatia also struggled coming home, with three bogeys and a double over his final seven holes, and he hit only 10 greens in regulation.

As a result, I like this price on Fleetwood for a 3-ball given his ball-striking acumen after a day where he missed just one fairway. If he dials in the iron play a touch, he could more firmly build a spot among the contenders.

Cameron Young Top 10 finish (+250)

Young evaded an early demise Thursday, admirably rallying back from a 4-over 40 to get to the house at 1-over. While that likely puts the PLAYERS champ (+4500 outright) too far adrift to truly contend for his first major title, he could still make some progress toward cashing a finish position wager at plus-money prices.

Young missed the cut last year at this event but proved at TPC Sawgrass that he’s got all of the shots required. An inward 33 amid crispy conditions on Thursday means he’ll head into the second round with more momentum than most of his counterparts facing an over-par start. I don’t expect him to sweat a second straight missed cut in Augusta, and the more likely outcome would be for him to head into the weekend within the top 30, if not the top 20 – at which point this price for a top-10 result will likely be much shorter.

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