BMW Championship props: Look for aggressive play to yield another top finish for Sam Burns

The BMW Championship is the second of three legs in the FedExCup Playoffs. The defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, sent a loud and clear message last week, announcing his intention to add another FedExCup championship to his mantle. Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis provides four more rounds to book a final place inside the top 30 for those on the outside looking in to qualify for the TOUR Championship in Atlanta next week.

DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of prop markets to get involved, so let’s dive in!

(Editor’s Note: For more expert betting picks, fantasy advice and event previews, visit DraftKings Network.)

Winner without Scottie Scheffler

• Ludvig Åberg (+1375) or Kurt Kitayama (+3700)

Let’s try this again. Scheffler, who ran away from the field on Sunday to win by eight shots last week in Memphis, left Si Woo Kim solo second. If you believe, as I do, that Scheffler has found top gear and will not be looking back, there are a couple of plays I like in this market.

Of the top choices, many will turn to Sam Burns, but I am backing Åberg. Posting three rounds in the 60s last week, only a third-round 74 knocked him out of contention. The extra yardage on the scorecard fits his precise long-iron game perfectly, and not many make more birdies (sixth in Birdie Average).

Kitayama, a two-time TOUR winner like Åberg, can also give it a ride. He ranks 31st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 10th in SG: Approach-the-Green, two excellent metrics to sort out on an unfamiliar Bellerive layout. Racking up greens in regulation is his calling card. Paying them off with a marginal putter is why this number is where it is. The good news is that he ranks 31st in Bogey Avoidance. Live to fight another day.

Top 5 including ties

• Sam Burns (+280)

He will be one of the few players disappointed by the weather forecast at the BMW Championship. The normally insufferable summer heat in St. Louis shifts to temperatures in the 80s. The winds from the north will blow out the stagnant, thick river air. Since the birth of his daughter before The Open, Burns has been playing with house money. His arrival at Royal Birkdale was last minute, and he ended up leading after 54 holes, nearly winning the event (T3). Returning to the United States, he shot a third-round 62 in Memphis to earn a spot in the final group with his buddy, Scheffler. Finishing T3, he cashed a check in the top three in three of his last four starts on TOUR. The aggressive play would be to play him in the “Without Scheffler” market. I can live in this space.

Outside-looking-in long shot

• Rickie Fowler, Top 10 including ties (+295)

I had a nice hit in this space last week with Sungjae Im (+495) in Memphis, and I am running it back this week with No. 30. The six-time winner, who last won in 2023 in Detroit, is being chased by 20 guys looking to take his 30th and final ticket for Atlanta. Fowler, like the rest of the field this week, has already qualified for the Signature Events in 2027. Booking his place in the top 30 would qualify him and the 29 others for every major event next season. His sixth top-10 payday of the season would result in a winning ticket and would be his fifth from a Signature or FedExCup Playoff event. He enters the week with a round of 66 or better in five consecutive events.

The Ladder Same Game Parlay

• Xander Schauffele, Top 20 including ties; Si Woo Kim, Top 30 including ties; Nico Echavarria, Top 40 including ties (+131)

To have this exercise pay plus-money, I needed one of the longer shots in the Top 40 category. Nico Echavarria, ranked 42nd of 50 players this week, is the man for the job. The winner of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches earlier this season, Echavarria arrives at the par-70, 7,448-yard layout fresh off a T12 payday last week in Memphis, preceded by another T12 paycheck at the Wyndham Championship the week before. There is plenty of heat in this threesome, and the guy pulling up the rear is not dead weight.

Schauffele is on a run of T18-second-T7 in his last three on TOUR and Kim, the runner-up last week in Memphis, is having the best season of his career, 11 top-10 paydays, even without a victory. He racked up three of those 11 paydays in his last four starts. I only need T20 or better this week.

Winning score Over/Under 261.5: Over (-154)

According to Rob Bolton, 17 players who teed it up at the 2018 PGA Championship are returning to Bellerive Country Club. All 18 greens have been regrassed and rebuilt since the best players in the world have visited, so any course knowledge on the putting surfaces is out the window. Over the years, the BMW Championship has produced winning totals of 27 under (Caves Valley 2022) to 4 under (Olympia Fields 2020). The last four years, including return visits to Caves Valley (Scottie Scheffler, 15) and Olympia Fields (Viktor Hovland, 17 under), have not produced a winning total better than 18 under. With blustery conditions in the forecast, plus the modifications made after a major championship, I will play over the posted total for the par-70 layout.

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Terms: draftkings.com/sportsbook. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL.