Odds Outlook: Can Kurt Kitayama repeat at 3M Open?

The 3M Open hosted at TPC Twin Cities begins the final three-event stretch to close the regular season on the PGA TOUR. With the FedExCup Playoffs looming, perpetual favorite Scottie Scheffler (+270), along with 2025 champion Kurt Kitayama (+2200), highlight the field of 144 for the eighth playing of the event in the Minneapolis suburb of Blaine, Minnesota.

Making his tournament debut, Scheffler continues his trend of playing the week following a major championship in 2026. The No. 1 player in the FedExCup standings lost in a playoff both at the RBC Heritage after the Masters and at the Travelers Championship the week after the U.S. Open. He earned third-place money during his “home game” at TPC Craig Ranch at the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson the week after the PGA Championship. During his recent fortnight across the pond, he saw his streak of cuts made at 78 events at the Genesis Scottish Open and cashed T4 at The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. Last week at the final major of the season, his iron play was on fire, but he could not convert those chances into enough birdies. This week at TPC Twin Cities (par 71; 7,431 yards), where the average winning score over the first seven editions is better than 19-under par, Scheffler knows he can push the accelerator all the way to and through the floor. Hitting the most Greens in Regulation in a shootout is the first step to success, and there is nobody better on TOUR in that department. Scheffler also leads the TOUR in Birdie Average, among many categories.

Kitayama returns to the land of 10,000 lakes to defend his 2025 title, his second career victory on the PGA TOUR. The 32-year-old matched the course record of 60 in Round 3 and closed with a 65 to miss equaling the tournament record by a shot. His 32 birdies were tied for the third-most in a TOUR event ever. He posted 13 under to earn T6 on his first visit and posted an aggregate of 36-under par in two attempts. This season, the Californian cashed 16 times in 18 tries, including 11 straight since falling short at THE PLAYERS Championship. His four top-10 payouts this season include a season-best T2 at The Genesis Invitational. He ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season and led the field in that category last year.

Maverick McNealy (+2700) completes the trio of players shorter than +3000 to win at TPC Twin Cities. The Californian owns one TOUR victory at another shootout, The RSM Classic in November of 2024. Earlier that summer, he registered his best payday at the 3M Open in his third start, T3, after a third-round 63 put him in contention. McNealy is one of only eight players in the top 50 in the OWGR teeing it up this week. After skipping the Genesis Scottish Open, he shot 71-72 (3 over) and missed qualifying for the weekend at Royal Birkdale. His missed cut was just the second in 17 events this season. He owns just as many missed cuts as top-10 paydays: two in 2026. His latest appearance, T10, came at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday in early June. A super putter, he ranks 25th in Birdie Average on TOUR.

The trio of players listed at +3000 spans the TOUR player spectrum. Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama (+3000) owns 11 TOUR titles and has made the cut in 28 consecutive starts. He was one of 14 players to make the cut in all four major championships this year, and his T14 at Royal Birkdale was his second top-15 result (T12, Masters). Over half of his 17 starts have resulted in T25 or better paydays. The Japanese legend cashed T7 on debut in 2019 and will make his first start since T30 in 2023. He opened with 64 in both of those visits. He would be just the second international winner in eight editions of the 3M Open.

Keith Mitchell (+3000) has cashed T5 or better twice in six visits and will make his fourth consecutive start at TPC Twin Cities this week. The powerful, accurate ball-striker earned his first and only TOUR victory at another watery layout, the Champion Course at PGA National. This week, water is in play on 15 holes, but there is plenty of room to move it off the tee and swing driver. The 34-year-old went low earlier this season, posting 22 under at THE CJ CUP to earn the first of two top-five paydays in 2026.

Jackson Koivun (+3000) turned professional after cashing T23 at the U.S. Open in June. All of 21 years old, he fell short of the weekend at the John Deere Classic two weeks later, but bagged his first top-10 result (T10) at the ISCO Championship the following week. A serial winner on the college beat, the former Auburn Tiger lifted 11 trophies and won all three major national player of the year awards twice(2024, 2026). Last summer as an amateur, he posted top-10 paydays at three events: ISCO Championship, Wyndham Championship and Procore Championship. Nobody is questioning the pedigree of the three-time SEC individual champion, but investors are not wading in at a discount either.

Tom Kim (+3300) used the momentum he created at the U.S. Open (solo third) and kicked down the door at the Genesis Scottish Open two starts later. Opening with a round of 65 and closing with a round of 64, he posted 17 under and missed tying the tournament scoring record at The Renaissance Club by a shot. After missing the cut at Royal Birkdale, he arrived in Minnesota earlier than expected at a track where he posted six of eight rounds in the 60s. Since posting 73 on his maiden loop, he's 20 under over his next seven rounds. A victory this week would be his second of the season and fifth in his career.

Jake Knapp (+3300) returns to Minnesota to complete unfinished business. The 2025 event saw him post 64-65 to sit one shot off the 36-hole lead. A third-round 67 positioned him one shot behind the final pair on 18 under before closing with 68 to share third place. He was one of six players to post 20 under or better in 2025. The winner of the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta ranks fifth in SG: Putting and seventh in birdie-or-better conversion percentage on top of his power tee to green. His best paydays this season included seven of his first eight starts earning T11 or better. He has missed the cut in three of his last five starts after earning a check for 11th place at the Masters.

Ryan Fox, the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, withdrew from the event after winning the claret jug on Sunday. Stefano Mazzoli (+35000), the winner of the Corales Puntacana Championship last week, is playing.

Odds of previous 3M Open winners playing (not listed above):

• 2023: Lee Hodges (+10000)
• 2022: Tony Finau (+6000)
• 2021: Cameron Champ (+25000)

Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, with odds via FanDuel:

• +4000: Pierceson Coody
• +4500: Gary Woodland, Corey Conners, Jackson Suber, Jordan Smith, Doug Ghim
• +5000: Sungjae Im, Ben James
• +5500: Sam Stevens, Max Homa
• +6000: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Michael Brennan, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Johnny Keefer
• +6500: Max Greyserman, Jason Day, Davis Thompson, Mac Meissner
• +7000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rasmus Højgaard, William Mouw, Aldrich Potgieter
• +8000: Beau Hossler, Kevin Yu, Michael Kim, Ricky Castillo, Casey Jarvis, Taylor Pendrith, Stephan Jaeger, Steven Fisk

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