The PGA TOUR’s crown jewel, THE PLAYERS Championship, will be contested this week at TPC Sawgrass. For the first time in recent memory, there are doubts about the players at the top of the board.

Rory McIlroy sent shockwaves through the sport when he withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard prior to the third round. It was only the second time in his PGA TOUR career that he withdrew mid-tournament, so it was certainly unexpected. McIlroy cited back spasms but seemed optimistic about being fully healthy for THE PLAYERS.

Scottie Scheffler has been pure excellence, but his T27 last week was his worst finish in a year. Obviously, that’s a very high bar, but it’s certainly concerning to see Scheffler struggle, even if it is by his own standards. It is worth noting that Scheffler lost over 2.5 strokes on approach last week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, which now marks the second straight event that he’s lost strokes in that category.

TPC Sawgrass will punish those who miss the fairway with an average “missed fairway penalty” of 0.38 strokes per miss. That’s a combination of water and thick rough that dampens scoring. It’s also worth another 0.18 strokes per “long drive,” or a drive that goes farther than average on that hole. Long and straight drivers off the tee will see a sizable benefit this week.

Admittedly, I was less worried about last week’s withdrawal from Rory McIlroy before his Monday statement that “stubborn” back pain will delay his arrival at TPC Sawgrass until Wednesday. It’s a significant curveball for the defending champ. Still, if McIlroy approaches 100% physically, there could be some serious betting value on the defending champ.

Prior to the withdrawal, McIlroy had already gained two strokes off the tee, something he has accomplished in seven of his last nine worldwide starts and a trend that gives him a sizable advantage over his peers. His approach play has improved significantly in 2026, with tightened proximities and increasing quality birdie opportunities, and I see sufficient upside at his current +1400 outright price at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The other outright consideration is Cameron Young, who is passing both the eye test and putting together an eye-popping stat profile. He’s hitting these tight little draws throughout all trajectories – seemingly in complete control of his game. That’s being reflected on the stat sheet as well. He gained over seven strokes off the tee last week, which ranked first in the field. He’s gained strokes in that category in 11 straight events dating back to last year. For being such a big hitter, he has excellent touch on and around the greens, making TPC Sawgrass an excellent fit for him. This field is so deep that his odds to win are currently +3300 at DraftKings.

There’s no reason to think that Collin Morikawa is going to slow down anytime soon. His last three starts have been vintage Morikawa. He’s gained 17.16 strokes on approach, which is the most valuable skill set you can have on any golf course. The other asset that Morikawa possesses is his ability to hit fairways. He plays out of the short grass more than 68% of the time – which is a top-10 rate on TOUR. He finished T10 here last year while losing two strokes on the putting surfaces. He’ll need to putt better this year, but he has a clear path to the top of the board. His current odds to finish top five are +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

It’s not often that Corey Conners finds reprieve on a putting green, but he has at TPC Sawgrass in his career. Over his last five starts at THE PLAYERS Championship, he’s gained 8.88 strokes putting. Not surprisingly, that has translated into great results. He’s earned three top-15 finishes during that stretch, highlighted by his T6 last year. He cleaned up his ball-striking last week at Bay Hill and is now boasting a solid stat profile heading into THE PLAYERS. His top-20 odds are enticing at +340.

With a tournament of this magnitude, there are plenty of wagering options, including the line for the winning score. It’s being set at 269.5 by DraftKings Sportsbook, which equates to 19-under par being the expected winning score. There is a touch of rain in the forecast during the week, which could soften the course, but that’s not enough to move me off the over 269.5 market because I believe this will play more difficult than expected. TPC Sawgrass demands such a complete game and there are big numbers lurking everywhere. Only once since 1995 has the winning score been under 269.5, and that was Scottie Scheffler in 2024. I expect that birdies will be at a premium and bogeys will be in abundance.

Rickie Fowler has been impressive in 2026, gaining 1.22 strokes per round in his 20 rounds this year. There are two things that have really improved his play. Firstly, his putter is back to being a weapon. He’s gained at least three strokes putting in each of his last four starts. Secondly, and probably connected, is that his bogey avoidance is one of the best on TOUR, at just 10%. He’s not taking any unnecessary risks, which is why I think Rickie Fowler to have a bogey-free Round 1 is a very interesting option, priced at +1600.

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