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  • Stats formula picks PGA Championship winner

    Suggests that McIlroy, Walker, Scott, Garcia are favorites

  • Rory McIlroy, who ranks third in driving distance, is our formula's favorite to win the PGA Championship. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images) Rory McIlroy, who ranks third in driving distance, is our formula's favorite to win the PGA Championship. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

No doubt, Rory McIlroy is the heavy favorite entering this week's PGA Championship at Valhalla in Louisville, Ky. Most oddsmakers have him pegged with odds at or near 5-to-1. Regardless, we wanted to run a stats formula for the third time in major championships this season -- both the U.S. Open and Open Championship had some success in picking top players, just not a champion.

In case you missed our two previous editions, this is how the stats formula works: With input from our editorial team here at PGATOUR.COM, I select three stat categories and add up the rankings in an attempt to determine a handful of golfers that can win. This week, I've decided to go for driving distance, greens in regulation and strokes gained-putting. Pretty stock stats, you say? Well, you're right. These three stats are very straightforward, but, in my opinion, so is the golf course. Valhalla is long and right in front of you. Not too many tricks here. Just pure American golf. So maybe there really is no secret to picking a winner at Valhalla. Let's not overthink things.

Without further delay, here are the top players in our formula. The oddsmakers' favorite is also our stats formula favorite. That's just how the numbers crunched.

Golfer Driving Distance
Greens in Regulation
Strokes gained-putting Total
1. Rory McIlroy
3 10 37 50
2. Jimmy Walker
19 29 7 55
3. Adam Scott
18 31 13 62
4. Sergio Garcia
48 4 15 67
5. Charley Hoffman
25 11 53 89
6. Keegan Bradley
14 64 24 102
7. Charles Howell III
10 14 90 114
8. Bubba Watson
1 23 98 122
8. Brendan Steele 20 39 70 129
10. John Senden
93 27 11 131
11. Graham DeLaet
15 3 119 137
12. Harris English
27 8 105 140
12. Hunter Mahan
42 51 48 141
14. Ryan Palmer
24 27 92 143
15. Jason Kokrak
8 81 58 147
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