For the third straight round at the Valero Texas Open, play has been suspended or delayed. The third round started early on Saturday, and golfers went out in threesomes in an attempt to beat the weather. However, it wasn’t long before the field was forced to find shelter due to inclement conditions in the area.

After a lengthy delay, play was called for the day, with the announcement that the third round will resume Sunday at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Sunday’s forecast looks ideal for getting both the third and fourth rounds in. However, if it spills over into Monday, it would mark the first time since 2016 that the Valero Texas Open has had a Monday finish.

It’s going to be a long day for the leaders. The final group has only made it through six holes, meaning they’ll have to play 30 holes on Sunday.

Through six holes, Ludvig Åberg (+240) has already cut Robert MacIntyre’s (-145) four-shot lead down to two. Right now, it feels like a two-man race, with the next closest contenders being Matt Wallace (+4500) and Ryo Hisatsune (+1500) at 11-under, sitting four shots behind MacIntyre.

Right now, major retail sportsbooks have lines posted for third-round three-balls. These are live markets, and there are definitely opportunities to find value if you’re selective. I’m not advocating to lay -400 on anyone to win a three-ball, but there are spots where you can isolate two golfers who are tied, while the third player in the group is effectively out of reach.

Round 3 Three-Ball: Chandler Phillips (+170) vs. Chris Kirk and J.J. Spaun

I’ll be very clear about this bet. This is purely a strategy play to isolate two golfers who are playing at a similar level and are tied through nine holes.

Right now, Chandler Phillips and Chris Kirk are both 4-under in the third round, while J.J. Spaun is 2-under through nine holes. Yes, Spaun could theoretically make a run and catch them, but based on the pricing, he’s clearly the odd man out in this three-ball.

So, what this really becomes is a head-to-head matchup between Chris Kirk and Chandler Phillips. Phillips is sitting at +170, while Kirk is -145.

When you actually break down how they’ve played, there isn’t a massive gap between the two. Kirk has been dialed in on approach through nine holes, gaining an impressive 2.98 strokes. But it’s important to note that a large portion of that came from his hole-out on the ninth hole. Outside of that, his putter really hasn’t been all that sharp. That said, when you’re holing out from the fairway, you don’t exactly need the putter.

Phillips has been the complete opposite. He’s gained almost all of his strokes with the flat stick in this round, picking up 2.29 strokes putting through nine holes.

Looking at the full tournament profile, neither golfer is putting up numbers that suggest Kirk should be priced this heavily as a favorite. For me, this feels much closer to a coin flip over the remaining nine holes. Maybe you give Kirk a slight edge based on overall win equity, but nothing close to what the current price is implying.

In my numbers, Kirk shouldn’t be much higher than -110. So, getting Phillips at +170 feels like we’re getting a significant amount of value for what is essentially a coin-flip scenario. It’s a smaller wager, because we’re strictly playing probabilities here, but it’s still a bet I think is worth making.

Davis Thompson Top 10 (ties included) +110

When I started combing through the data, I was pretty surprised to see that Davis Thompson’s name kept popping up in all the right spots.

More importantly, I was surprised to see him as one of the top players in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Through this tournament, he’s gained 3.05 strokes tee-to-green, which is more than a full stroke better than the next closest golfer at +1.95.

When you dig into his round-by-round profile, it gets even more interesting.

In the first round, when he shot 6-under, he gained 4.0 strokes tee-to-green, which ranked fourth in the field. Then in the second round, he finished 1-over par but still gained 2.7 strokes tee-to-green. So why the poor score? He lost 4.33 strokes putting in that round.

Now in the third round, through 13 holes, he’s gained another 2.4 strokes tee-to-green. The putter hasn’t been anything special, gaining just 0.21 strokes, but the ball striking has been consistently elite.

Obviously, Thompson is one of the golfers who would be most impacted if this were shortened to 54 holes, since he’s already through 13 holes of his third round and currently sitting T10. His opportunities to climb the leaderboard would be limited.

But if we do get a full fourth round, this is the exact profile you want to back. Typically, when Thompson has things going well off the tee, he’s able to sustain that level of play over a full round.

So given the consistency of his ball-striking through two and a half rounds, I like Thompson to finish inside the top 10 this week.