Photo Gallery

    • FEDEXCUP

      Points and finishes players needed to make top 70

      Scenarios for the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola

    • Adam Scott's position inside the top 30 for East Lake is likely secure. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR) Adam Scott's position inside the top 30 for East Lake is likely secure. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR)

    There are 98 players trying to squeeze into the top 70 in FedExCup points in order to make it to the next FedExCup Playoffs event, the BMW Championship at Cherry Hills Country Club.  We simulated 10,000 possible outcomes of this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship to see what players are at risk of falling out of the top 70 and what players need to do to make the next playoff event.


    FEDEXCUP PLAYOFFS: Standings | Deutsche Bank scenarios | Insider's guide | Playoffs Tracker | Coverage


    The simulation projections in the table below show that there is a 50% chance that the 70th position entering the BMW Championship will be at 899 FedExCup points (or fewer).  To have a 99 percent chance of making the next round, a player will need to have 944 FedExCup points (or more) at the conclusion of the Deutsche Bank Championship.

    Chance 1 percent 50 percent 99 percent
    Position 70 entering the BMW
    836* 899 944**
    * There is a 1 percent chance that No. 70 entering the BMW Championship will be 836 points or fewer
    ** There is a 99 percent chance that No. 70 entering the BMW Championship will be 944 points or more

    While 28 players are trying to play their way into the next round, the simulation projections show that only positions 62 to 70 (from Russell Henley to Scott Brown) are in any real danger of falling out of the top 70.  Those at the greatest risk are in positions 67 to 70 (Shawn Stefani, Jason Bohn, K.J. Choi, and Scott Brown).

    The table below shows what finishes these players need this week to stay in the top 70.  It also shows the finishes needed for those outside the top 70 to make their way to Cherry Hills next week.

    Golfer Current FedExCup rank Current FedExCup points Points needed for BMW Finish needed for BMW
    50 percent 99 percent 50 percent 99 percent
    George McNeill 55 962 0 0 Any Any
    Ryo Ishikawa 56 936 0 8 Any 69th
    Phil Mickelson 57 926 0 18 Any 67th
    Justin Hicks 58 923 0 21 Any 67
    Will MacKenzie 59 920 0 24 Any 66
    Jerry Kelly 60 913 0 31 Any 65
    Kevin Chappell 61 911 0 33 Any 64
    Russell Henley 62 904 0 40 Any 63
    Ben Martin 63 899 0 45 Any 62
    Brian Stuard 64 895 4 49 70 61
    Scott Langley 65 873 26 70 66 57
    Henrik Stenson 66 867 31 76 65 56
    Shawn Stefani 67 827 71 116 57 48
    Jason Bohn 68 824 75 120 56 47
    K.J. Choi 69 819 80 125 55 46
    Scott Brown 70 816 82 127 55 46
    Brandt Snedeker 71 812 87 132 54 45
    Morgan Hoffmann 72 811 88 133 53 44
    Bo Van Pelt 73 811 88 133 53 44
    Jason Dufner* 74 798 101 146 51 42
    David Hearn 75 793 106 151 50 41
    Brendan Steele 76 791 108 153 49 40
    Stewart Cink 77 776 123 168 46 37
    Ben Crane 78 774 125 170 46 37
    Brendon de Jonge 79 757 142 187 43 34
    Luke Donald 80 743 156 201 40 31
    Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 81 743 156 201 40 31
    Billy Horschel 82 722 177 222 36 27
    Jeff Overton 83 713 186 231 34 25
    Chesson Hadley 84 710 189 234 33 24
    Paul Casey* 85 699 200 245 31 22
    John Huh 86 691 207 252 30 21
    Pat Perez 87 682 217 262 28 19
    Robert Garrigus 88 678 221 266 27 18
    Jason Kokrak 89 672 227 272 26 17
    Scott Stallings 90 668 230 275 25 16
    Ian Poulter 91 657 242 287 23 14
    Andres Romero 92 651 248 293 21 13
    Carl Pettersson 93 650 249 294 21 13
    Andrew Svoboda 94 647 252 297 21 13
    Vijay Singh 95 638 261 306 19 13
    Danny Lee 96 637 262 307 19 13
    Robert Streb 97 635 264 308 18 13
    Billy Hurley III 98 630 269 314 17 12
    Michael Putnam 99 618 281 326 15 12
    Geoff Ogilvy 100 611 288 333 14 12
    * Dufner (injury) and Casey (personal) are not sheduled to play this week

    Looking ahead, the projections below show that there is a 50% chance that the 30th position entering the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola will be 1755 FedExCup points (or fewer). To have a 99 percent chance of making it into the TOUR Championship, a player will need to have 1862 FedExCup points (or more) at the conclusion of the BMW Championship.

    Chance 1 percent 50 percent 99 percent
    Position 30 entering TOUR Championship 1,621 1,755 1,862
    Position 5 entering TOUR Championship 2,828 3,297 3,777

    Currently, Adam Scott is in 16th position with 1752 FedEx Cup points. The BMW Championship has no cut, so Adam Scott will gain additional FedExCup points no matter how he plays. In fact, Adam Scott is a virtual certainty for making the TOUR Championship as long as he finishes the next two events.

    Currently, Gary Woodland is in 30th position with 1352 FedEx Cup points. He’ll need to earn 510 more points in the next two events to have a 99 percent chance of making it into the TOUR Championship.

    How have these projections done so far? On August 6, prior to the PGA Championship, the likely cutoff to advance to The Barclays was projected to be 437 points, with a range of 418 points (1 percent chance) to 450 points (99 percent chance).  The cutoff turned out to be 438 points. For details, click here.

    On August 21, prior to The Barclays, the likely cutoff to advance to the Deutsche Bank Championship was projected to be 618 points, with a range of 575 points (1 percent chance) to 647 points (99 percent chance).  The cutoff turned out to be 611 points. For details, click here.

    Mark Broadie is the author of Every Shots Counts, available in bookstores and on amazon.com.  See the website everyshotcounts.com for more information.

    comments powered by Disqus
  • file