Scenarios: What the final 30 need to win

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September 10, 2012
PGA TOUR staff

Each of the 30 players in the field at next week's TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola has a chance to win the FedExCup. There are thousands of possibilities that would allow each player to win, especially when ties are taken into account. However, for simplicity some likely scenarios are shown below.

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Any of the top five players will win the FedExCup with a win at the TOUR Championship. The remaining 25 players can still win, but must get help from players at the top of the standings.

The scenarios below are not all-inclusive but do give an indication of some possibilities for each player to win the FedExCup.

Asterisks denote a finish combination that results in a tie in the final FedExCup points standings, in which case the winner will be decided in a sudden-death playoff immediately following completion of THE TOUR Championship.

Scenarios to win the FedExCup
No. 1 Rory McIlroy
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-5 finish
• Can finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 2 Tiger Woods
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a top-3 finish
• Can finish as low as a 2-way tie for 6th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 3 Nick Watney
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a 2nd place finish
• Can finish as low as T-4th and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 4 Phil Mickelson
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Has a reasonable chance of winning with a 2nd place finish
• Can finish as low as T-3rd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 5 Brandt Snedeker
• If he wins the TOUR Championship he wins the Cup
• Can finish as low as a two-way tie for 2nd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 6 Louis Oosthuizen
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T2 or worse
• Can finish 2nd and still have a mathematical chance of winning
No. 7 Dustin Johnson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 8 Lee Westwood
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 3rd* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-2* or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes 2nd* or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 9 Zach Johnson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 3rd or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-2 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 2nd* or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 10 Jason Dufner
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 5th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-2 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes 2nd* or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 11 Bubba Watson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T-6 or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-4 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 12 Sergio Garcia
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 6th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-4 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 13 Steve Stricker
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T-7 or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-4 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 14 Keegan Bradley
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T-8 or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-4 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 15 Luke Donald
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 9th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-4* or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 16 Matt Kuchar
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 9th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No, 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 4th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-3 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 17 Carl Pettersson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 10th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 4th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 18 Jim Furyk
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T-11 or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 5th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
No. 19 Bo Van Pelt
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes T-12 or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 5th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 20 Robert Garrigus
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 12th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 5th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 21 Adam Scott
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 13th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 5th* or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes 3rd* or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 22 Ernie Els
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes in a 3-way tie for 13th or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-5 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
No. 23 Hunter Mahan
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 15th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-5 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil MIckelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 24 Justin Rose
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 17th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 5th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes in a 3-way tie for 3rd or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 25 Webb Simpson
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 19th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 5th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes 4th or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 26 John Huh
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 21st* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes 6th* or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes 4th* or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 27 Rickie Fowler
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 23rd* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-6 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-4 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 28 Ryan Moore
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 25th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes T-6 or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-4 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 29 John Senden
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 27th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 6th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-4 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup
No. 30 Scott Piercy
• Wins the TOUR Championship
And ...
• Rory McIlroy (No. 1) finishes 29th* or worse
• Tiger Woods (No. 2) finishes in a 3-way tie for 6th or worse
• Nick Watney (No. 3) finishes T-4 or worse
• Phil Mickelson (No. 4) finishes T-3 or worse
• Brandt Snedeker (No. 5) finishes in a 3-way tie for 2nd or worse
• Louis Oosthuizen (No. 6) finishes T-2 or worse
*Tie for the FedExCup

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