Rory McIlroy rebounds from incredible odds to win FedExCup

New FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy sent his opening tee shot in the TOUR Championship out of bounds over a fence and made triple bogey. Midway through his second round he sat 11 shots adrift of Scottie Scheffler’s lead and was trading at +5000 with BetMGM Sportsbook (50 to 1) to win a third FedExCup.

Starting the final round McIlroy was still six shots back of a man who had four wins, including the Masters, on his resume in 2022. It seemed insurmountable even if McIlroy’s odds had come in to +1000. He was at least set to play in the final group with Scheffler.

Working against him was the fact no one had come back from more than two shots with a round to play at East Lake in the prior 10 years. Since the FedExCup era began in 2007, winners of the TOUR Championship at East Lake had held the lead or co-lead nine of the 15 times through 54 holes. You had to go back to Camilo Villegas in 2008 to find the record comeback of five shots.

“Honestly, I wasn't really giving myself much of a chance teeing off in the fourth round,” McIlroy would admit. But incredibly he joined the lead after seven holes, lost it again soon after, fought back to the top again and had it alone for the first time after 70 of 72 holes. From there McIlroy held on to make history as the first three-time FedExCup champion.

“Six behind on the first tee on Thursday and I was 10 behind on the third tee. I guess it just shows you anything's possible, even when you're a few behind or a few in front in the tournament. Anything can happen,” McIlroy said.

“I guess I proved that I was in a really good mindset for the week and I didn't let it get to me too much and just stuck my head down and got to work… to claw my way back and end up winning the tournament, incredible. Just really proud of my resilience.”

McIlroy’s wild ride once again showed the volatility of live golf odds and the opportunity it can bring bettors feeling brave to take a chance. We’ve gone behind the numbers and tracked his odds from the week to see just how miraculous the result turned out to be for the man who now owns three FedExCups, a PLAYERS Championship and four majors.

ODDS TIMELINE – Rory McIlroy to win the FedExCup

Thursday

Pre-Tournament: +800 – As the minutes ticked down to McIlroy’s first round he sat +800 thanks to the six-shot buffer Scheffler had earned via his body of work during the season.

Rd 1, Opening Tee Shot: +1200 – As rain fell annoyingly in the area McIlroy began his FedExCup chase with a double-crossed tee shot that sailed left… further left… and further left still. It cleared the boundary fence and was out of bounds forcing him to retee.

Rd 1, Par-4 1st, 5th shot: +1400 – The odds continued to move after McIlroy’s fifth shot to the par-4 opener was still 7-feet from home.

Rd 1, Par-4 1st, 7th shot: +2200 – His travails ended with a triple bogey ballooning his odds as he sat nine shots back.

Rd 1, Par-3 2nd, 4th shot: +2800 – If his start wasn’t bad enough McIlroy backed it up with a bogey on the second hole as well. The lead was a distant 10 shots from him.

Rd 1, Par-4 3rd, 1st shot: +3300 – As Scheffler geared himself towards a big week, McIlroy’s tee shot on the third hole headed for the rough giving bettors more doubts.

Rd 1, Par-5 6th, 3rd shot: +2800 – Sitting 35-yards out in the rough McIlroy secured his first big roar of the week by holing out for eagle to get back to within eight shots.

Rd 1, Par-4 14th, 3rd shot: +2200 – McIlroy’ odds jumped to +2200 with birdie on the 12th, back to +2800 with bogey on 13 before another birdie on the 14th started a positive run home.

Rd 1, Par-3 15th, 2nd shot: +1400 – The roars return for Rors as he buries a 35-foot birdie putt.

Rd 1, Par-4 16th, 3rd shot: +1200 – The fightback continues with a seven-foot birdie bringing his odds in a little tighter. They would stay there overnight as a final hole birdie is cancelled out by Scheffler finishing with three straight birdies of his own. He sits eight clear of McIlroy.

Friday

Rd 2, Par-4 5th, 4th shot: +2500 – McIlroy opens round two with five straight pars but meanwhile Scheffler birdies the second and third holes to open a 10-shot gap to the Northern Irishman.

Rd 2, Par-4 14th, 4th shot: +4000 – McIlroy’s par streak continues as Scheffler sets up a birdie on the 12th and goes 11 ahead.

Rd 2, Par-4 16th, 1st shot: +5000 – Scheffler is looking ominous through 13 holes, sending McIlroy’s odds to the high point for the tournament.

Rd 2, Par-4 16th, 3rd shot: +3300 – McIlroy birdies the 16th to get back within 10 shots.

Rd 2, Par-5 18th, 4th shot: +4000 – Despite another birdie on the last hole McIlroy drifts out to +4000 at the end of the round and lands nine shots off the pace at the halfway point.

Saturday

Rd 3, Par-3 2nd, 2nd shot: +3300 – An early third round birdie brings McIlroy within eight of the lead.

Rd 3, Par-4 3rd, 3rd shot: +2200 – Two birdies in a row and Scheffler can hear cheers in the distance as he warms up. Seven shots back now.

Rd 3, Par-4 4th, 5th shot: +3300 – Just as McIlroy fans think he’s surging, he gives a shot back with a sloppy bogey. Eight off the pace.

Rd 3, Par-4 5th: +4000 – Back out to overnight odds thanks to a Scheffler dart on approach to the third hole. Luckily for McIlroy and others, he fails to convert the putt.

Rd 3, Par-5 6th, 3rd shot: +2800 – An incredible approach from 196-yards sets up a simple eagle putt that McIlroy converts and is now within six of the lead.

Rd 3, Par-4 8th, 3rd shot: +1600 – The gap is just five shots to the lead when McIlroy coaxes in a 26-foot birdie on the eighth hole and he briefly comes in to +1200 when Xander Schauffele makes a mistake to lessen the gap to second place.

Rd 3, Par-3 15th, 3rd shot: +1000 – McIlroy misses a chance at birdie on the par-3 15th but an earlier birdie on 13 and now Scheffler’s bogey on 11 leaves the gap at four shots. McIlroy fails to convert a great approach on 16 before bad weather sees play finish for the day.

Sunday

Rd 3, Restart Sunday: +1000 – McIlroy birdies both of his remaining holes to come in to +700 but Scheffler returns a new man and birdies four out of his last six to set up a six-shot buffer with 18 holes to play leaving McIlroy at +1000.

Rd 4, Par-4 1st, 5th shot: +1600 – An opening bogey from McIlroy is only softened by the fact Scheffler does the same to leave the gap at six shots.

Rd 4, Par-4 3rd, 3rd shot: +900 – The beginning of an incredible stretch as McIlroy pulls within five with a birdie from six-feet.

Rd 4, Par-4 4th, 4th shot: +700 – The lead is just four shots as Scheffler bogeys the fourth while McIlroy manages a par.

Rd 4, Par-4 5th, 3rd shot: +400 – It’s birdie time again for McIlroy on the fifth and this is getting real now as he sits just three off the pace.

Rd 4, Par-5 6th, 4th shot: +200 – The unthinkable is incredibly unfolding as McIlroy birdies the front nine par-5 while Scheffler drops a shot on the same hole. McIlroy is now just one shot off the lead.

Rd 4, Par-4 7th, 3rd shot: +130 – The six-shot lead is gone in just seven holes as McIlroy drills a 17-foot birdie into the cup on the seventh and takes a share of top spot.

Rd 4, Par-4 8th, 4th shot: +175 – Scheffler stoically stops the bleeding with a birdie on the eighth hole to retake the lead.

Rd 4, Par-4 12th, 3rd shot: +100 – McIlroy produces a lovely wedge to 6-feet and makes the birdie putt to tie for the lead once again. Just six holes remain.

Rd 4, Par-4 14th, 1st shot: -133 – A huge drive down the tough 14th sees McIlroy’s odds tighten.

Rd 4, Par-4 14th, 5th shot: +180 – An awful approach from the fairway sets the tone for an ugly bogey and McIlroy is one back with just four holes to play.

Rd 4, Par-3 15th, 2nd shot: -118 – East Lake erupts as McIlroy rebounds from his mistake with a 31-foot 8-inch birdie putt on the 15th to join the lead once again.

Rd 4, Par-4 16th, 3rd shot: +140 – The odds are rollercoasting as McIlroy goes long on approach into 16 and then his chip comes out hot but hits the flag and ricochets to seven-feet.

Rd 4, Par-4 16th, 4th shot: -250 – A huge turn of events as McIlroy makes his testing par putt but Scheffler is unable to do the same having played his third from a greenside bunker. McIlroy leads by one with two to play.

Rd 4, Par-4 17th, 4th shot: -200 – McIlroy misses a 20-foot birdie try on 17 leaving the door open for Scheffler who is pacing around a 9-foot look to rejoin the lead.

Rd 4, Par-4 17th, 4th shot: -500 – Scheffler’s birdie attempt is unfortunately one of his worst putts of the day and doesn’t fall.

Rd 4, Par-5 18th, Free Drop: -3333 – In the bettors eyes the FedExCup is secured when despite pulling his second shot on the last into a grandstand from which it rebounded into deep rough, McIlroy is given relief. Two unsuccessful drops allow him to place the ball and with a perfect lie established the incredible comeback is assured.

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