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Stats Report
  • STAT BROTHERS

    Cut prediction: The American Express

  • Scottie Scheffler opened with a 65 and is second in Data Golf's win probabilities. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)Scottie Scheffler opened with a 65 and is second in Data Golf's win probabilities. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

2020 The American Express, Round 1

Scoring Conditions:

Stadium Course (SC): -1.47 strokes per round

La Quinta (LQ): -2.42

Nicklaus Tournament (NT): -2.71

Current cutline (top 65 and ties after 3 rounds):

73 players at -3 or better (T49th position)

Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

  1. 8 under par: 17%
  2. 7 under par: 16%
  3. 9 under par: 14.8%

Top 10 win probabilities:

  1. Rickie Fowler (T3, -7, 13.3%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (T3, -7, 6.8%)
  3. Sungjae Im (T14, -5, 4.6%)
  4. Paul Casey (T37, -4, 3%)
  5. Grayson Murray (T1, -8, 3%)
  6. Russell Knox (T6, -6, 2.7%)
  7. Tom Hoge (T6, -6, 2.2%)
  8. J.T. Poston (T14, -5, 2.2%)
  9. Abraham Ancer (T37, -4, 2.1%)
  10. Zac Blair (T1, -8, 2.1%)

NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Sony Open in Hawaii, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.