November 02, 2018
By Matthew & Will Courchene, PGATOUR.COM
Bryson DeChambeau Round 2 highlights from Shriners
Through two days (but not quite two rounds) of the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live predictive model:
Despite being roughly the 40th-rated player in this field of 132, Peter Uihlein holds the leading win probability. His two-shot lead over Robert Streb and Whee Kim, and more importantly his three-shot advantage over Bryson DeChambeau, is enough for the model to favour him over some of the top players chasing.
Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth, respectively the 2nd and 6th-rated players in this field by our model’s estimates, are still very much in the tournament with both golfers holding a 6 percent win probability.
There are still a few players left to finish the second round, but our model has called it a mathematical impossibility for the cut to move off of 3 under par.
The biggest mover on Friday, in terms of increase in cut probability, was Brian Gay. Gay started Friday at 3 over par and just a 16 percent chance of advancing to the weekend. But, 65 strokes later, he has secured a Saturday tee time; here was how his cut probability evolved in the second round:
NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.