August 11, 2015
By Bill Cooney and Mark Broadie, PGATOUR.COM
- Adam Scott is ninth in total driving and eighth in greens in regulation this season. (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Welcome to another edition of stats formulas predict a champion.
We've only selected one champion in six events in the stats-based formula -- Rory McIlroy at last season's PGA Championship. But three of the six top selections in the stats formula have finished in the top 10 in that respective tournament (See: 2014 U.S. Open, 2014 Open Championship, 2014 PGA Championship, 2015 PLAYERS, 2015 U.S. Open, 2015 Open).
Here's a quick reminder of how it works: For the stats-based formula, I select three statistics and add up each player's rank in them to obtain a total value -- and those players are ranked in total value from lowest to highest.
This week, I've select total driving, greens in regulation and putting from 15 to 25 feet. I have a strong feeling that making long putts is going to be key this week when factoring in the challenging sight lines and dangerous pin locations at Whistling Straits. As always, arguments can be made for and against this approach to predictions. But Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson appear to be the favorites this week based on my formula.
Note: Only the players in the field this week were used in the formula. Both Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods do not officially qualify for statistics on TOUR -- they do not meet the minimum requirement for rounds played -- but neither would be in the top 15 this week. McIlroy's value would be 215 while Woods' would be 440.
|Player||Total Driving||Greens in Regulation||Putting 15-25 feet||Total Value|
|1. Adam Scott||9||8||19||36|
|2. Henrik Stenson||1||1||35||37|
|3. Brooks Koepka||42||19||6||67|
|4. Jordan Spieth||42||55||3||100|
|5. Billy Horschel||18||10||73||101|
|6. Ben Martin||45||25||46||116|
|7. Webb Simpson||17||59||47||123|
|8. Russell Henley||8||78||39||125|
|9. Lee Westwood||28||86||12||126|
|10. Keegan Bradley||2||66||59||127|
|11. Zach Johnson||48||42||40||130|
|12. Kevin Streelman||19||22||102||143|
|13. Brendan Steele||25||24||98||147|
|14. Martin Laird||41||67||41||149|
|15. Jason Dufner||39||49||62||150|
TOURNAMENT PERFORMANCE FORMULA (Mark Broadie)
Broadie, the Columbia Business School professor and strokes gained guru, has kindly agreed to provide his own prediction formula once again this week. His is more of a performance-based formula. Broadie used a weighted formula based on two categories: A player's lowest tournament adjusted scoring average in the past eight events (he also looked at European Tour events) and a player's adjusted scoring average in the prior 36 events (again, he looked at European Tour events). Broadie then weighted the 36 prior events at 70 percent (Average performance from past year) and the eight most recent at 30 percent (Best performance in previous eight events).
Here are his results, with the ranking in each category listed:
Note: Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley and Zach Johnson made both formulas.
|Final rank/Player||Rank, average past year||Rank, Prev. 8 events|
|1. Jordan Spieth||2||1|
|2. Rory McIlroy||1||6|
|3. Jason Day||4||2|
|4. Jim Furyk||3||4|
|5. Bubba Watson||7||3|
|6. Justin Rose||6||5|
|7. Henrik Stenson||8||9|
|8. Adam Scott||5||28|
|9. Hideki Matsuyama||10||19|
|10. Sergio Garcia||11||20|
|11. Matt Kuchar||12||18|
|12. Dustin Johnson||9||49|
|13. Zach Johnson||13||12|
|14. Rickie Fowler||14||10|
|15. Keegan Bradley||15||30|