Sleeper Picks: The American Express

Thomas Detry (+275 for a Top 20) … If not for Taylor Montgomery, who you’ll find often in the Power Rankings, including for The American Express, the 30-year-old from Belgium would be in the driver’s seat for early Rookie of the Year attention. In fact, both talents are heading their class of 28 right now, but Montgomery has a slight edge. Detry has been juggling his obligations and opportunities on the DP World Tour, but they haven’t slowed his game on the PGA TOUR where he’s 5-for-5 with a runner-up finish in Bermuda highlighting four top 15s.

Callum Tarren (+450 for a Top 20) … I’ll take, “What a Difference a Year Makes” for $400, Alex. Actually make it worth much more, said the Englishman. The context is striking. When he missed the cut in his debut at The American Express as a PGA TOUR rookie a year ago, it dropped him to 0-for-6 on the season. He’d stretch the misery to eight consecutive fruitless attempts before finally ending the drought on the Korn Ferry Tour out of necessity. Of course, you know the rest of the story of how he rallied late in the season to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. The 32-year-old is just 3-for-7 this season but he’s made the chances count with a T13 in Mississippi and a T2 at Sea Island. Not that he’s been fearful, but he’s most certainly fearless today. It’s the proper approach in every shootout.

Dean Burmester (+375 for a Top 20) … In full disclosure, Joel Dahmen sat in this space until he withdrew on Tuesday morning. His odds were omitted, but he was just +220 for a Top 20 despite having an 0-for-3 record in the tournament. The respectful value is a reflection of how well he played in the fall, which is the primary reason why he was featured here at first. With his departure, another PGA TOUR rookie by definition only assumes the position primarily because of his terrific value for the same finish. Like Detry above, the 33-year-old Burmester also is a proven performer abroad. He’s currently 56th in the Official World Golf Ranking and 62nd in the FedExCup with a solo fourth in Mississippi contributing last fall. He added a pair of top 10s in his native South Africa thereafter.

Patrick Rodgers … It’s a coin flip to determine which was more surprising, that he committed to the Sony Open in Hawaii where he’s just 1-for-4 with a T38 in his last appearance in 2020, or that he withdrew well before the tournament started. It’s not that he’s never hopped out early, but it was his only competitive opportunity to contribute to the FedExCup since mid-November, so the timing of the decision was unusual. Furthermore, given how he raced into the holiday break with a 7-for-7 flourish that included a T3 among four top 20s, conventional wisdom included the notion that he wouldn’t wait to resume the fireworks show. Whatever the case, he’s poised to establish a personal best at PGA WEST where he’s cashed three of four times, albeit no better than last year’s T40.

Martin Laird … When analyzing any golfer in any tournament, sometimes the absence of recent success can deter shrewd planning when it shouldn’t. Case in point, since the Scot joined the PGA TOUR in 2008, he’s missed only one edition of The American Express. It happened last year when he withdrew after the commitment deadline and before the opening round. He has only one top 10 (T9, 2017), which is one of five top 25s, but he’s just 1-for-4 with a T47 in 2021 since. The message isn’t to ignore him outright. Comfort takes precedent over inconsistency in execution. You also can note his success in other desert layouts like TPC Summerlin and TPC Scottsdale (in his adopted backyard). No one can avoid the career bell curve, and now at 40 years of age, successes are expected to occur with less frequency, so tiptoe in moderation. He concluded 2022 with a pair of top 25s, so consider investing a fraction of a unit in a Top 30 or Top 40 market, or go bigger in a matchup.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2023. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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