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Power Rankings: Valero Texas Open
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April 18, 2016
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM
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Jimmy Walker led the field in total birdies last year at JW Marriott TPC San Antonio (22). (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
The Valero Texas Open eclipsed $100 million in charitable contributions last year, in the process becoming just the fourth PGA TOUR event to surpass that benchmark. While all things San Antonio in springtime are attractive, funds raised for charity has been one of the calling cards for the title sponsor that forged its relationship with the tournament in 2002.
What hasn’t been as, shall we say, generous is the host course, JW Marriott TPC San Antonio. Winning here has proven to be an exercise in survival. It’s not necessarily the American Ninja Warrior of golf, but you can’t rule it out, either. Since the course debuted in 2010, the six champions have averaged 277.33 strokes for the week. TPC San Antonio is a stock par 72, so concluding the tournament at 10-under is worthy of consideration for the title and black cowboy boots awarded every victor.
Last year’s field scoring average of 74.521 was a tournament high as well as the highest of every non-major all season. The first-round scoring average of 76.695 was the highest for any round in a non-major since the final round of the 1999 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (77.563). The third and final round of that season’s AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am scored an unreal 79.383 several months prior.
A gusty wind is always the primary variable for robust scoring and it was in last year’s lid-lifter, touching 38 mph at times. It’s not going to come remotely close to that extreme this week, but inclement weather will remain a critical component of the narrative, just as it has in recent days in southern Texas. A reasonable threat for rain and storms trickles into Thursday before finally taking a breather until it ramps up again on Sunday. Daytime highs will flirt with 80 degrees and winds should be moderate at worst until the finale when they might freshen, although a change in direction at the midpoint will also draw attention.
The field of 156 will embrace any break it can get at TPC San Antonio, which can stretch to 7,435 yards. Influenced by that bear of a first round last year, the course yielded the second-lowest green-in-regulation percentage of the season at just 51.73. Its average proximity to the hole of 43 feet, 1 inch, ranked as the longest of any course. It measured longest in the stat in every split inside 175 yards. All pars are testy as well. Most notably, at 4.91, the par 5s were the most challenging set of the season.
Defending champion and Boerne, Texas, resident Jimmy Walker led or co-led his field in greens hit, strokes gained: putting, one-putt percentage, par breakers (22 birdies) and par-5 scoring. While that kind of multi-faceted approach would work almost everywhere, if you’re going to simplify the objective, TPC San Antonio will likely host a putting contest simply because hitting the 6,400-square foot greens on the Greg Norman design has been so difficult. To wit, four of the six winners of the VTO have finished inside the top five in strokes gained: putting en route to their titles.
POWER RANKINGS: Valero Texas Open
Rank PLAYER COMMENT 1 
Charley Hoffman Most reliable in the field. Competed in every edition at TPC San Antonio, finishing no worse than T13 (twice). Recent uptick in form includes three top 25s; T14 at RBC.
2 
Jimmy Walker Home game for the defending champ. Three top 20s in six appearances. Three top 10s and another three top 20s in 2016. Nails inside 175 yards; 10th in adjusted scoring.
Home game for the defending champ. Three top 20s in six appearances. Three top 10s and another three top 20s in 2016. Nails inside 175 yards; 10th in adjusted scoring.
3 
Zach Johnson Predictably nice fit with his approach game. Top 20s in last two editions during which he ranked a respective fourth and first in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Predictably nice fit with his approach game. Top 20s in last two editions during which he ranked a respective fourth and first in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
4 
Matt Kuchar He’s 4-for-4 here with no worse than a T22 (2013). Top 15s in every other start in 2016; T9 at Harbour Town where he’s repeated success. Eleventh in adjusted scoring.
He’s 4-for-4 here with no worse than a T22 (2013). Top 15s in every other start in 2016; T9 at Harbour Town where he’s repeated success. Eleventh in adjusted scoring.
5 
J.B. Holmes T4 at the Masters post-shoulder injury; closed with 68. Five top-11 finishes in last seven starts. Two top 15s here, but not since 2011 (T11). Terrific inside 175 yards.
T4 at the Masters post-shoulder injury; closed with 68. Five top-11 finishes in last seven starts. Two top 15s here, but not since 2011 (T11). Terrific inside 175 yards.
6 
Patrick Reed First trip since 2013. The Texan leads the TOUR with seven top 10s, three of which in his last four starts. Sits 19th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and sixth in scrambling.
First trip since 2013. The Texan leads the TOUR with seven top 10s, three of which in his last four starts. Sits 19th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and sixth in scrambling.
7 
Aaron Baddeley Notable here for his 336-yard birdie in last year’s lid-lifter, but he’s 4-for-4 with three top 20s. Top 10s in two of last three starts. Four top 10s this season most since 2011.
Notable here for his 336-yard birdie in last year’s lid-lifter, but he’s 4-for-4 with three top 20s. Top 10s in two of last three starts. Four top 10s this season most since 2011.
8 
Billy Horschel Loves a tough track. Led field in strokes gained: putting here in 2013 (placing T3); ranked sixth in 2015 (solo third). Nine straight paydays upon arrival, five for a top 25.
Loves a tough track. Led field in strokes gained: putting here in 2013 (placing T3); ranked sixth in 2015 (solo third). Nine straight paydays upon arrival, five for a top 25.
9 
Freddie Jacobson Proclivity to clean up well and play small ball has paid dividends. Last year’s T50 was first outside a top 20 in six tries. Three top 15s in 2016; T15 at windy Puerto Rico.
Proclivity to clean up well and play small ball has paid dividends. Last year’s T50 was first outside a top 20 in six tries. Three top 15s in 2016; T15 at windy Puerto Rico.
10 
Branden Grace The RBC champ hasn’t impressed in most of his starts immediately following a victory, but won in consecutive weeks in January of 2012. Third start at the VTO (2-for-2).
The RBC champ hasn’t impressed in most of his starts immediately following a victory, but won in consecutive weeks in January of 2012. Third start at the VTO (2-for-2).
11 
Brendan Steele Only PGA TOUR victory occurred in his debut here in 2011. He’s added a T4 (2012) and T8 (2015) since. Scuffling of late, but sits eighth in the all-around ranking.
Only PGA TOUR victory occurred in his debut here in 2011. He’s added a T4 (2012) and T8 (2015) since. Scuffling of late, but sits eighth in the all-around ranking.
12 
Jason Kokrak Recently fulfilling expectations on tracks where he’s already proven it (T20, Bay Hill; T6, Harbour Town). Top 15s in two of last three starts at TPC San Antonio.
Recently fulfilling expectations on tracks where he’s already proven it (T20, Bay Hill; T6, Harbour Town). Top 15s in two of last three starts at TPC San Antonio.
13 
Daniel Summerhays Regardless of form in real time, he’s hung up top sevens in his last three visits. No worse than 73 (twice) in those 12 rounds; actual scoring average of 70.50.
Regardless of form in real time, he’s hung up top sevens in his last three visits. No worse than 73 (twice) in those 12 rounds; actual scoring average of 70.50.
14 
Bryson DeChambeau Analytical approach is put to the test on a beast of a layout. Led RBC Heritage in strokes gained: tee-to-green en route to a T4. Also much longer than advertised.
Analytical approach is put to the test on a beast of a layout. Led RBC Heritage in strokes gained: tee-to-green en route to a T4. Also much longer than advertised.
15 
Phil Mickelson Always dangerous, of course. Hasn’t yet connected with TPC San Antonio – 1-for-2 with a T30 in 2015 – but has three top fives and another trio of top 20s in 2016.
Always dangerous, of course. Hasn’t yet connected with TPC San Antonio – 1-for-2 with a T30 in 2015 – but has three top fives and another trio of top 20s in 2016.
ROB BOLTON'S WRITING SCHEDULE
PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Columnist Rob Bolton will be filing his usual staples leading up to this week's event. Look for the following features later this week:
MONDAY: Power Rankings
TUESDAY*: Fantasy Insider, Comfort Zone, Sleepers
WEDNESDAY: One-and-Done
THURSDAY: Most-picked players* = Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM's Expert Picks, which also publishes on Tuesdays.
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Most reliable in the field. Competed in every edition at TPC San Antonio, finishing no worse than T13 (twice). Recent uptick in form includes three top 25s; T14 at RBC.