Because the TOUR Championship does not award FedExCup points, PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done will assign values based on the points distribution of the first two Playoffs events. So, the winner will be credited with 2,000 points, the runner-up gets 1,200, and so on.
Just as how the bonus money for the golfers will be determined by the actual finish of the tournament, PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done also will use actual finish to determine the values of points assigned. The only influence of the FedExCup Starting Strokes is on opening position. More on its impact, of lack thereof, below.
All things considered, this is the easiest event of the season for us. Our pool from which to make the pick is sliced thin from two sides. The field is only 30 deep and, if you've played every event, you've burned 45 golfers.
The primary assistance you need for the TOUR Championship is a reminder to stay true to this week's unique equation that spits out your selection. Allow your current position to dictate.
If you're front-running, stick with the man you holstered for the occasion. That decision made long ago was rooted in traditional reasoning that includes course experience and success. Momentum upon arrival is a bonus in this case.
If you're trailing – points to self – an analysis of who makes sense is necessary. Eliminate all golfers with whom your target can stymie you. The result is your short list. In (y)our case, course experience and success are bonuses.
My Power Rankings serve as a measurement of my confidence in winning the tournament outright, not as a relation to opening position. Use it as a guide to whittle down to your last pick of the season.
Two-man gamers go into the TOUR Championship with the same approach for both picks.
With the philosophy covered, you might be surprised at how the FedExCup Starting Strokes shouldn't influence your decision. Seriously.
Reviewing the previous 15 no-cut tournaments in the last two seasons on the PGA TOUR, and considering placement only after at least one of the first three rounds was completed, three yielded winners who overcame a 10-shot deficit. Equally as intriguing, 11 prevailed after being down at least five strokes at some point. (For brevity, I'm not going to go into detail that explains how gaps were closed. The reality that they were proves that it's possible.)
Justin Rose was down eight shots entering the final round of the 2017 World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions and won by two. His deficit is the largest among the sample size but it required the shortest period of time to extinguish. The host course, Sheshan International Golf Club, is a par 72 – whereas East Lake is a par 70 – but Rose finished at just 14-under, third-lowest in relation to par in the sample size.
Dustin Johnson (2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions) and Marc Leishman (2018 CIMB Classic) also experienced 10-shot swings en route to victoy, but both were compared to sitting back of the lead after just one round. DJ was two back at Kapalua, a par 73, and won by eight at 24-under. Leishman was five off the pace after 18 holes at TPC Kuala Lumpur, a par 72, and won by five at 26-under.
I'll have a graphic on Twitter illustrating the entire sample size. While you always can view my tweets on the FANTASY page, I'll post it in the discussion space below.
All (and only) 30 golfers at East Lake are within 10 strokes before the tournament starts. The moral of this matter is not to permit opening position to dissuade you from investing in the product of your equation.
Rank Expert Pick Comment 92nd
He starts in a hole but there's not many who play this track better. He can redeem a relatively quiet season, for him at least, with a free-wheel comeback. 105th
Kevin Kisner I had planned on using Rose, but because Glass assumed the lead, I have to pivot. Oh, well. I should've played better sooner. Yet, I'm excited about what the surging Kisner presents. He's the ultimate wild card in this format and finished T3 at East Lake two years ago. 111th
On the Mark
I wish he would’ve made a few more putts over the last two events but I still like his starting position. Anyway, East Lake loves a good driver of the ball and Rory is certainly that. It’s time to put the exclamation point on the end of a consistently solid season. 152nd
Abraham Ancer Of all my remaining players, he has the best starting position (-4). 201st
It’s been a year to forget for my choices here, but hey, let’s finish with a bang and try to steal the fantasy double. 636th
Young star already has a win at East Lake.
NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.
Paul Casey … TOUR Championship (3)
Dustin Johnson … TOUR Championship (7)
Hideki Matsuyama … TOUR Championship (5)
Rory McIlroy … TOUR Championship (6)
Jon Rahm … TOUR Championship (7)
Justin Rose … TOUR Championship (2)
Xander Schauffele … TOUR Championship (1)
Adam Scott … TOUR Championship (3)
Justin Thomas … TOUR Championship (3)