Every once in a while, I'm asked to clarify how Future Possibilities is constructed. It's the section of this weekly preview parked at the bottom and it's reserved for notables in every field. Given the objective of PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done and every other One & Done game across the landscape, the notables comprise the short list that should command the highest ownership percentages.
Confusion can occur when you consider someone like Dustin Johnson, who sits atop my Power Rankings for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A player of his caliber is going to attract attention everywhere he plays, and that translates into him qualifying as a future possibility 100 percent of the time. However, Future Possibilities discriminates against cachet and focuses on proven course success. After all, you're selecting only one golfer per event, and even if you're a two-man gamer, the demarcation line for value needs to be positioned much closer to actual value of the commodity than speculative value.
Only 11 golfers in the field of 156 at Detroit Golf Club appear in Futures Possibilities below, and none are followed by the Rocket Mortgage Classic because it's an inaugural event on the PGA TOUR. Sure, we can project who might be a good fit way in advance, and I do for a handful for the majors that migrate, but without any prior experience as evidence that any golfer will commit to the tournament, long-range planning is folly for the regular non-majors.
This phenomenon yields a tremendous opportunity for One & Doners in pursuit in the Motor City. Even the chalk is iffy because of the unknown. Front-runners will be all over the place despite the presence of DJ, Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler. There's also the reality that the RMC is the 36th event of the season. Even if your league started late, there's a decent chance that most if not all of those golfers are no longer available to opponents you are targeting.
If you're way back and still have the means, it's time to stop talking yourself out of DJ. That patience helped get you to where you are today.
And that's it. He's the only haymaker who makes sense on the board. This is what happens when we're presented with mystery.
To assist in determining your choice, work the remainder of the season backward.
Have you reserved your favorites for the TOUR Championship, Wyndham Championship, World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (at TPC Southwind) and The Open Championship specifically? Those tournaments will be appearing considerably in Future Possibilities in the coming weeks. (Incidentally, if you're curious where notables who didn't commit to the RMC make sense later, simply navigate to the One & Done preview for the U.S. Open. It's the most recent with the most comprehensive section.)
If you already haven't, pencil in your probables. Then count how many others will need to cover the duration. Now crosscheck that result with the chalk at Detroit GC.
If you're pacing with a surplus, knock off a big name. Now is not the time to get cute. Besides, you've earned the right to pig out. If you're limited, lean on a hot hand like Kevin Streelman or invest in a safe play like Ryan Moore or Kevin Kisner.
For chasers, allow yourself to be aggressive because you're guaranteed to be stalking a moving target who has no better idea than you about what might transpire. If DJ is gone, scorers like Sungjae Im, Rory Sabbatini and Jason Kokrak can take the at-bat.
Let this strategy guide you this week. It's a terrific chance to connect with the game on an organic level. If you're not already thinking and planning like this, it's an exercise that will assist you in applying this step consistently over time. In fact, be ready for the same advice for next week's 3M Open.
Rank Expert Pick Comment 32nd
Rickie Fowler The plan was to burn him in a major, but abstaining worked out perfectly as I had Tiger Woods (win) at the Masters, Brooks Koepka (win) at the PGA Championship and Patrick Cantlay (T21) at the U.S. Open. Now, with nothing pending in Future Possibilities, Fowler defaults as my pick in this field. 58th
Now that the pressure of the pro debut is out of the way, I think he’ll flash his potential. 121st
Perfect week to take a chance on an up-and-comer and the Korean has no problem going low or making a ton of birdies. 129th
On the Mark
In the end when it came to picking a player on a new course I went with Sneds’ ability on Poa Annua greens ... having said that I did consider Chez Reavie off his awesome play in Cromwell.
Joaquin Niemann Given my poor form with guys I feel a reason to pick, I’m going with a guy I like who has reasons not to pick him. Great logic right? 750th
One of the higher players in the FedExCup standings still available to me; he’s been playing well all season long – hasn’t finished out of the top 33 since January.
NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2018-19. The numerical values in parentheses represent the order of relative confidence of where to use each golfer if multiple sites are listed (e.g. 1 for strongest, 2 for next-strongest and so on). To present weighted confidence in real time, numerical values will not change all season no matter how many tournaments remain listed for each golfer. All are pending golfer commitment.
Jason Dufner … Wyndham (8); TOUR Championship (10)
Brian Harman … John Deere (4)
Billy Horschel … Wyndham (6); TOUR Championship (1)
Dustin Johnson … WGC-St. Jude (6); TOUR Championship (7)
Martin Laird … Barracuda (2)
Hideki Matsuyama … Wyndham (7); TOUR Championship (5)
Ryan Moore … John Deere (8); Wyndham (2); TOUR Championship (9)
Cameron Smith … Wyndham (3)
Brandt Snedeker … Wyndham (1; defending)
Brendan Steele … Barracuda (3)
Bubba Watson … TOUR Championship (8)