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Analytics predict the final Wyndham Rewards Top 10 standings

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MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 02:  Brendon Todd of the United States plays a shot on the 13th hole during the final round of the World Golf Championship-FedEx St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind on August 02, 2020 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 02: Brendon Todd of the United States plays a shot on the 13th hole during the final round of the World Golf Championship-FedEx St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind on August 02, 2020 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)



    Written by Justin Ray, @JustinRayGolf

    Only four rounds of competition remain in the PGA TOUR’s regular season. Still, plenty is left to be decided in the season-long battle for the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 and the $10 million bonus pool that comes along with it.

    Justin Thomas has clinched the top spot thanks to his three victories this season, but the rest of the top-10 remains in flux on the final week. 15th Club ran more than 20,000 simulations of this week’s Wyndham Championship to predict the likelihood of every possible outcome in the standings. According to our models, there is still a large amount of movement possible this weekend at the Wyndham Championship.


    RELATED LINKS: 15th Club | Wyndham Rewards Top 10 scenarios


    Below are some of the most interesting players to keep an eye on this week.

    WEBB SIMPSON

    Current FedExCup position: 3
    Odds of moving into 2nd this week: 11.1%

    The highest-ranked player in this week’s field, Simpson can’t catch Justin Thomas for first, but there’s a chance he can pass newly-minted major champion Collin Morikawa for the No. 2 spot. A replica of 2019’s result – solo second – will get the job done, unless the man who beats him is Sungjae Im. Simpson leads all players in Strokes Gained: Total and Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green at Sedgefield since 2010. His combined score to par of 72 under par at Sedgefield over the last five years is 19 strokes better than any other player in that span. It’s no wonder Simpson is the top player in the field according to the 15th Club forecast model.

    PATRICK REED

    Current FedExCup position: 6
    Odds of moving into top 5 this week: 8.1%

    There is a 214-point gap between Reed and fifth-ranked Sungjae Im in the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. That’s a larger differential than the one between Reed and Lanto Griffin, the man in 12th place. Still, Reed has a puncher’s chance at jumping into the top five, a six-figure difference when it comes to the bonus pool. Reed picked up his first career PGA TOUR victory here seven years ago and has finished in the top-25 in each of his three return appearances since. Reed is 10th on TOUR this season in scoring average, the third consecutive season he has improved his ranking in that statistic.

    BRENDON TODD

    Current FedExCup position: 9
    Odds of moving into top 5 this week: 3.0%

    Undoubtedly one of the great stories of the season, Brendon Todd can put an exclamation point on a career year over the next four weeks. A victory at the Wyndham Championship would not only give him one of the more unexpected three-win campaigns in PGA TOUR history, it would almost assuredly push him up the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 standings into a bigger bonus payout. Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee is less significant at Sedgefield CC than the average PGA TOUR venue, a positive for the shorter-hitting Todd. Todd is making his first start in this event in four years.

    SEBASTIAN MUNOZ

    Current FedExCup position: 16
    Odds of moving into Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 1.5%

    He will need a big week in North Carolina to get there, but don’t count Sebastian Munoz out of the rewards pool just yet. The 15th Club predictive model gives Munoz a 1.5% chance at breaking into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 this weekend. Munoz has struggled since the Return To Golf, missing five cuts in seven starts, but shot in the 60s all four rounds at Sedgefield in 2019. Munoz is ranked in the top 50 on TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, a trait that will help on a golf course where iron play is more important than the average venue.

    HARRIS ENGLISH

    Current FedExCup position: 28
    Odds of moving into Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 3.3%

    At first glance, Harris English leaping 18 spots to get into the top 10 this week seems impossible. But consider this: English has four consecutive top-20 finishes, a run capped off with a Sunday 66 last week in San Francisco. He has made the cut in all six of his previous appearances at the Wyndham Championship dating back to 2012. And since the Return To Golf in June, English has gained +1.63 strokes on the field per round, the fifth-best average among players with a dozen or more rounds played. Don’t be surprised if English makes a late charge into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10.

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