Bubble breakdown: Sizing up the top 125 contenders

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Camilo Villegas, No. 150 on the money list, hasn't won since the 2010 Honda Classic.
November 07, 2012
Brian Wacker, PGATOUR.COM

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- Billy Mayfair enters the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic with his fate in his hands for a second straight year.

A year ago, he came into the season-ending event on the outside looking in before tying for sixth to secure his PGA TOUR card. This time, he's right on the bubble at No. 125 on the money list.

But no one from 120th on down, with a few exceptions, is safe. The Disney event represents their last chance to secure a spot in the magical top 125 on the money list -- an opportunity made more important this year given next year's schedule changes.

Near Top 125
Name Money rank Earnings Comment
James Driscoll 120 $687,338 Since contending in Hartford, Driscoll has missed six of his last nine cuts, including two of the last three. Another could be costly.
Boo Weekley 121 $683,259 Like Driscoll, Weekley is struggling with missed cuts in four of his last five starts. This could be the second straight year Weekley finished outside top 125.
Jeff Maggert 122 $671,494 The 48-year-old got his first career win at Disney nearly two decades ago. Another good performance would lock up a card and serve as a bridge to the Champions Tour.
Kevin Chappell 123 $623,775 The 26-year-old has just one top 10 all year, and that came at the U.S. Open. He's also missed four of his last five cuts.
Rod Pampling 124 $620,893 Pampling also has just one top 10 this season, but he's missed just one cut since June. On the flip side, he's missed the cut here each of the last two years.
Billy Mayfair 125 $619,961 Last year, Mayfair tied for sixth here to move from 127th to 109th on the money list. He comes in this year right on the bubble. Can he do it again?
Trevor Immelman 126 $617,296 The bad news: Immelman is outside the top 125. The good news: He's exempt through next season thanks to his 2008 Masters victory.
Gary Christian 127 $616,457 The 41-year-old rookie doesn't have a top 50 in the Fall Series and he's a combined 2 over during that stretch.
Alexandre Rocha 128 $605,117 Better late than never: Rocha finished second in Reno and fourth at the Frys.com Open to earn more than $500,000.
Bill Lunde 129 $593,598 The 37-year-old has saved his best golf for last, finishing in the top 20 in three of his last five starts, including a fifth in Las Vegas.
D.J. Trahan 130 $587,407 Things were looking bleak for Trahan -- until he tied for fourth at Sea Island to pick up $165,333.
Gary Woodland 131 $583,338 Woodland battled injury early this year and spent the season undergoing a swing change. The positives: He finished T9 at Frys.com, and he's exempt through 2013 for his 2011 win in Tampa.
Chez Reavie 132 $571,875 If not for a playoff loss in Boston last year, Reavie's card would be secure through next season. Instead, he's fighting for a spot.
Retief Goosen 133 $571,174 The South African underwent back surgery in August, and he's expected to apply for a Medical Exemption for 2013.
Tim Petrovic 134 $558,862 Petrovic has missed more cuts (9) than he's made (7), but a T2 at the Frys.com Open has given him the most important thing of all: Hope.
Richard H. Lee 135 $547,733 After seven missed cuts in his first 10 starts this year, Lee has finished in the top 20 in three of his last five, including a T6 in Vegas.
Tim Herron 136 $547,479 Putting has been Herron's big weakness -- he's 140th in strokes gained-putting. But he's made nearly $150,000 his last three starts.
Jerry Kelly 137 $532,901 Kelly has missed the cut in three of his last four starts, but he has four career top 20s here and more importantly has a career money exemption for next season if needed.
Justin Leonard 138 $528,907 Like Kelly, Leonard is safe for next year with a career money exemption. Still, you don't want to burn those if you don't have to.
Charlie Beljan 139 $527,528 He contended at The Greenbrier Classic before finishing T3. He also finished T10 at The McGladrey Classic. He needs another very strong week to have a shot.
Bobby Gates 140 $525,293 Last year, Gates bogeyed his final hole at Disney and waited around to find out he finished 126th on the money list. Five missed cuts in his last seven starts have hurt his chances this year.
Notables outside the Top 125
Name Money rank Earnings Comment
Stewart Cink 149 $461,127 He's in the field this week but is safe for next season thanks to his victory at the 2009 British Open.
Camilo Villegas 150 $460,474 Villegas won back-to-back events during the FedExCup Playoffs in 2008 and the 2010 Honda Classic but hasn't won since. He's never finished worse than No. 77 on the money list in any of his previous six years on TOUR, dating to 2006.
Robert Karlsson 161 $362,085 The Swede moved to the U.S. last year to concentrate on the PGA TOUR, but he doesn't have a top 10 in 16 starts this season.
Stuart Appleby 162 $361,514 One of just five players to shoot 59 on TOUR, the Australian has not fashioned a top-10 finish since a T10 at the 2011 Honda Classic.
Erik Compton 163 $359,765 The double heart transplant recipient needs a big week to secure his card for a second straight season after graduating from the Web.com Tour a year ago.

Below is a breakdown of their chances.