FedExCup wrap-up: BMW Championship, Rd. 3

September 11, 2010
Biggest Projected Movers
Player   Current Projected Increase Comment
58 2 56 spots The leader rebounded well -- Saturday's 66 was eight strokes better than his second round
37 10 27 spots Broke par for third consecutive round as he chases his first PGA TOUR win and spot at East Lake
16 5 11 spots String of five straight birdies has him in position for the win and a spot in the top five
44 27 17 spots Another round in the 60s and he could be making his first appearance at East Lake -- or maybe win
41 30 11 spots Second-straight 69 has left him three shots off the lead
Who's in trouble
These players started this week inside the top 30 but are currently projected to finish outside the top 30, which is the field size for the Playoffs finale, THE TOUR Championship:
Player Current Projected Comment
J.B. Holmes 24 31 Has steadily improved after opening 77 put him in a big hole, shooting 68 Saturday
Kevin Streelman 26 33 Local favorite needs to go low on Sunday to get to East Lake for the first time
Nick Watney 30 34 Bubble boy needs to finish 24th or better to make it to East Lake; currently tied for 26th
Rory McIlroy 29 36 Young Northern Irishman finally broke par, shooting third-round 68, but needs to move up 19 spots to advance
Top-five watch
Here's how the top five in points going into the BMW Championship fared in Saturday's second round:
1. MATT KUCHAR Feeling better, he'll start the final round one stroke back with a chance to win his second in three weeks
2. CHARLEY HOFFMAN Monday's winner got back on track with a 70, seven strokes better than his second round score
3. STEVE STRICKER Mr. September played like the man we remember, shooting a bogey-free 67 to tie for 14th, five strokes back.
4. JASON DAY He's 6 over and his spot in the top five could be in jeopardy since projections show he needs to finish fourth or better to stay there
5. LUKE DONALD Englishman took a step backwards with Saturday's 72 but only fell one spot to sixth in the projections so he's still got hope
The top five in the FedExCup points standings is important, since the top five going into THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola control their own fate in regards to winning the FedExCup.
Bubble watch
Bubble Tournament Comment
30 THE TOUR Championship Bubble boy Nick Watney fell four spots when a 70 left him tied for 26th. Kevin Na, currently tied for seventh, has replaced Watney at No. 30 and needs to play hard. He's got to finish eighth or better on Sunday to get to East Lake for the second straight year.
Projected moving inside top 30: Ryan Moore, Charlie Wi, Ian Poulter, Kevin Na.
Projected moving outside top 30: J.B. Holmes, Kevin Streelman, Nick Watney, Rory McIlroy
Notables Status
Player Current rank Projected Comment
Tiger Woods 51 44 Needs to make up six shots to jump inside top 30 in points
Vijay Singh 63 59 Needs to make up nine shots; that's asking too much
Steve Stricker 3 4 Has done enough to keep his position in top five
Ernie Els 7 8 In position to move back in top five with a great Sunday
Jim Furyk 11 13 Probably too far back to move into top five
Phil Mickelson 14 14 Holding steady, just fine-tuning for East Lake
Dustin Johnson 16 5 Projected into top five if current leaderboard holds
Rory McIlroy 29 36 Needs a big Sunday to climb back into top 30
Ian Poulter 44 27 He can't afford a dropoff, otherwise he's out of top 30
According to PGATOUR.COM's Projected Shots Back, the players below are currently projected outside the top 30 and need to make up 10 shots or more on Sunday to remain in the Playoffs. In other words, these players are all but mathematically eliminated:
Player Current rank Projected rank Shot back
Stuart Appleby 43 48 11 shots
D.J. Trahan 36 48 18 shots
Heath Slocum 42 50 12 shots
John Senden 38 52 15 shots
Rory Sabbatini 45 53 13 shots
Tom Gillis 48 54 11 shots
Jason Bohn 46 55 13 shots
Brian Davis 47 56 15 shots
Angel Cabrera 49 60 20 shots
Ricky Barnes 54 61 17 shots
Fredrik Jacobson 55 62 15 shots
Tim Petrovic 66 63 10 shots
Justin Leonard 59 64 12 shots
Bryce Molder 60 65 12 shots
Jason Dufner 65 66 12 shots
Y.E. Yang 61 67 14 shots
Andres Romero 68 68 17 shots
Stephen Ames 69 69 17 shots
Scott Verplank 70 70 18 shots
For the complete list of Projected Shots Back, click here

LEMONT, Ill.. -- Here's a quick look at the latest FedExCup projections and implications following the third round of the BMW Championship: