Fantasy Insider: Shriners Children's Open

Paralysis by analysis. That’s how I feel two weeks into the new version of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

In my comment in Expert Picks for this week’s Shriners Children’s Open, I wrote that I don’t know why I didn’t roster Sam Burns at the Sanderson Farms Championship. As you’ll see in the Recap near the bottom here, he was No. 3 in my Power Rankings, so I objectively ignored my own confidence. Oh, I also knew that he was the betting favorite, which means that he was a popular selection in the fantasy game, so he should’ve been on my team if for no other reason than as a defensive measure. What a stupid I am.

RELATED: Power Rankings | PGATOUR.COM Expert Picks

At the risk of sounding like a martyr, part of the influence in my decisions has been as a test for you. That’s true. The priority is the commitment to this gig. What I’ve learned – or been reminded of despite the focus – is that chalk often prevails. If you’re a loyal reader, then that will sound rich coming from me. I can hear you respond, “All Rob does is play chalk.” And that’s fair. Well, it was until the launch of the new game.

Similarly, it wasn’t the plan that my results of the first two events have served as an unintentional volley to critics who have wondered why I haven’t taken chances, never mind the success that safer decisions have yielded over time. Sure, it might be more fun to be risky, and then the overall standings are updated. No thanks. Not no more.

Now I’m positioned to see what happens playing from behind for a while as I pivot back to the chalk.

In the recap of the Fortinet Championship, I reviewed the performance of JJ’sFoursome, which won the season-opener with 315 points of which 101 (or 32.1 percent) were end-of-tournament [EOT] bonus points.

JJ’sFoursome then connected with Sam Burns at the SFC en route a weekly total of 248 of which 69 (or 27.8 percent) were EOT bonus points. Having both winners has equated to EOT bonus points (100) worth 17.8 percent(!) of JJ’sFoursome’s season total (563).

Chase the chalk, gang.

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf

My roster for the Shriners Children’s Open (in alphabetical order):
Abraham Ancer
Viktor Hovland
Brooks Koepka
Scottie Scheffler
Webb Simpson
Will Zalatoris

You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Harris English (+3000) … If he doesn’t play well, he could hear commentary that it’s due to a Ryder Cup hangover, but ignore that chatter if you hear it. Shootouts are indiscriminate and, short of winning the Shriners, he’s experienced every possibility at TPC Summerlin where he’s appeared seven times. His trajectory of the last two years aligns with where it should be at this stage of his career, and the objects nearest in the rearview mirrors are shiny. Do not hesitate.

DRAWS

Marc Leishman (+6600) … The Aussie is making his first trip since his sophomore season of 2010, but that’s fine. He crushes easy tracks and he’s been crashing leaderboards all year with five top fives, including a T4 at Silverado to open this season.

Cameron Tringale (+4000) … He’s in a groove and he flourishes on gettable tracks. His 6-for-9 record at TPC Summerlin includes a co-runner-up in 2015 among a trio of top 20s.

Kevin Kisner (+10000) … But barely. He’s rebounded from an 0-for-5 skid during the spring and won in mid-August at Sedgefield, so the confidence remains elevated that he’ll make the cut. However, he hasn’t seen TPC Summerlin since 2015 and his days of populating leaderboards with regularity might be over. Short hitters on the downward side of the career bell curve have to pick their spots, and there are many of them, but his Official World Golf Ranking (36th) will attract too many gamers who aren’t paying closer attention.

Adam Scott (+5000) … In his only prior appearance (believe it or not), the UNLV product sat T8 entering the final round in 2019 but backpedaled with a closing 74 to finish T42. Don’t sweat one bad round. You know who he is and he’s in form upon arrival, but he almost always is, anyway. It’s why you know who he is.

Paul Casey
Stewart Cink
Brian Harman
Russell Henley
Stephan Jaeger
Maverick McNealy
Ryan Moore
Ryan Palmer
Kevin Streelman
Sahith Theegala
Erik van Rooyen
Aaron Wise
Cameron Young

Odds sourced on Tuesday, September 28 at 5 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES

Martin Laird (+15000) … He was the first of three who prevailed out of the unique reshuffle category generated by the eligibility adjustments in response to the pandemic last season. Under normal circumstances, he, Robert Streb (RSM) and Branden Grace (Puerto Rico) would have had to navigate the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to regain status. Unfortunately, Laird has answered with only one top 25 in a full-field competition since (T23, PGA Championship). He’s a two-time champion at TPC Summerlin (2009) with a 10-for-12 overall record in the tournament, but if a defending champion ever presented as a contrarian, he’s it.

Danny Willett (+8000) … Celebrated his 34th birthday on Sunday with victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. It was just his third payday in his last seven starts and first top 25 since mid-May. Now making the long trip for his debut at TPC Summerlin, the emotional letdown cannot be ruled out even for a proven winner. Lean on the commodities.

Patrick Reed (+3300) … First trip to TPC Summerlin in eight years, so he’ll check off the new-event requirement if nothing else. Faded late in 2020-21 and was not selected for the Ryder Cup team, but the positive is that he’s refreshed for having a month off. On the other side of the spectrum is his struggle in piling up scoring opportunities, and that’s job one this week.

Charley Hoffman (+5000) … The renewed conservative gamer in me can’t reach to him despite his Vegas ties (he’s a resident and UNLV alum) and occasional pops at a title over the years. In his last six trips, he’s missed four cuts and finished T74 (2019). The T18 in 2017 is the lone highlight. However, I wouldn’t talk you out of him in an aggressive DFS play because of his form dating back 15 months now.

Jason Kokrak (+4000) … He’s elevated to a new level of expectations in the last 12 months, but TPC Summerlin hasn’t been a site of much success with no better than a T20 (2017) as the only top-35 finish contributing to a 5-for-9 record. Meanwhile, make a mental note that he’ll be defending his first title next week but on a different course.

Rickie Fowler
Lanto Griffin
Emiliano Grillo
James Hahn
Garrick Higgo
Rasmus Højgaard
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Keith Mitchell
Francesco Molinari
Chez Reavie
Brandt Snedeker
Nick Watney

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

n/a

NOTABLE WDs

Kevin Na … The former No. 1 in my Power Rankings pulled out on Tuesday with an injured rib.

Mackenzie Hughes … A T35 at the Sanderson Farms marked his eighth consecutive cut made after missing five in a row. As mentioned in this space for others last week, it’s possible that his scheduling has changed with a pair of limited-field invitationals in the next two weeks. He finished 67th in the 2020-21 FedExCup, so he wasn’t automatically exempt into either when the season concluded, but he’s close enough to the number to believe that he’d get in.

Cameron Champ … He’s eligible for the next two events, so it’d be alarming if he doesn’t appear in at least one.

Brendon Todd … Opened the season with a T22 at Silverado, and then missed the cut at Country Club of Jackson by three shots.

Kramer Hickok … As feared, he’s hit the skids since falling to Harris English in the playoff at TPC River Highlands in late June. Hickok is just 2-for-6 and without a top 55 since.

POWER RANKINGS RECAP – SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Will Zalatoris T14
2 Mito Pereira T31
3 Sam Burns Win
4 Sungjae Im T31
5 Charley Hoffman T39
6 Corey Conners T17
7 Kevin Streelman T31
8 Keegan Bradley MC
9 Sergio Garcia MC
10 Scott Stallings MC
11 C.T. Pan T11
12 Sebastián Muñoz MC
13 Harold Varner III T11
14 Seamus Power MC
15 Cam Davis MC
Wild Card Cameron Tringale T11

SLEEPERS RECAP – SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP
Golfer Result
David Lipsky (top 20) MC
Luke List (top 10) T17
Rory Sabbatini (top 20) MC
Adam Schenk (top 20) MC
Matthias Schwab (top 20) MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR
October 5 … Kelly Kraft (33)
October 6 … none
October 7 … none
October 8 … none
October 9 … none
October 10 … Charlie Beljan (37)
October 11 … Greg Chalmers (48)

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