Fantasy Insider: OHL Classic at MayakobaNovember 12, 2013
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider
The home game. Many variables can define it, and results will vary despite it, but gamers love knowing who lives where in addition to where a golfer practices and how often. But for every example of a guy that converts in his own backyard, there is a handful that hasn't.
By now you know that Chris Kirk is familiar with Sea Island Resort; I mentioned it in this very space last week. He's one of seven PGA TOUR members listed as living in the area (although he's relocated to Atlanta). All were in play last week. Three recorded top-10s (including Matt Kuchar's T7 and Brian Harman's T10), Zach Johnson tied for 16th, Harris English finished T27 and Jonathan Byrd shared 55th place after a strong start. Only tournament host Davis Love III missed the cut among the lot.
The moral of the story is: Like all things fantasy relevant, form and class supersedes any one angle, including local knowledge. While Kirk fulfilled the hopes of all gamers that lean heavily on this dynamic, so it might be a while before another local boy does good.
Look for my choices for PGATOUR.com's fantasy game in Expert Picks. My one-and-done selection, analysis and season totals will appear in The TOUR Report on Wednesday.
On a Roll
Jeff Overton ... Presents the latest example of why gamers need to overlook the occasional failure. He missed the cut on the number at The McGladrey Classic due to poor scrambling in the second round, but his aggregate strokes gained-putting clip was 3.660 at the midpoint (1.830 average). He's 52nd on TOUR in greens in regulation, so it's unlikely that his struggles will continue after just one bad round, especially since he connected three top 20s prior to his short stay at Seaside.
Brian Harman ... A T10 at Seaside was his fourth top-11 finish in seven starts dating back to the Reno-Tahoe Open. Tied for 26th in his only start at El Camaleon in 2012. Led the field in the third round that week with a 65.
Luke Guthrie ... After a T5 at the Shriners and a solo fourth at the BMW Masters where he held the lead for most of the tournament, he finally hit a wall at The McGladrey Classic. He opened with a 67, and then went 0-for-10 in par-breaker chances on a windy Friday to card a 75 and miss the cut on the number. Remain confident as that's his only over-par round in his last 14 worldwide.
George McNeill ... Already 3-for-3 on the season with a T7 at the Frys.com Open and a T22 at The McGladrey Classic. Led last week after an opening 62, so the pieces are in place for more fireworks in his fourth trip to Mexico where he's survived two of three cuts.
Robert Karlsson ... Making his debut at El Camaleon. Snuck into the field on a top-10 exemption when Kevin Stadler bogeyed the 72nd hole at The McGladrey Classic. Karlsson's T10 marked the best of seven consecutive cuts made, including all four during the Web.com Tour Finals. He's a non-member, so there's no motivation to pick him up in a long-term format unless he wins.
Horses for Courses
Chris Stroud ... Arguably the sneakiest play in all formats this week. With four top 10s in recent months, including a T3 at the CIMB Classic only three weeks ago -- also on paspalum greens -- he's projected to pile on a superb record at El Camaleon. It includes top fives in the last two editions and a T12 in 2008.
Cameron Beckman ... Something will give this week. The all-time earnings leader of this tournament is 6-for-6 with a victory in 2010 and two more top 15s. Meanwhile, he hasn't logged a top-50 finish on either the PGA or Web.com Tour since a playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Best reserved for weekly salary games where he comes cheap.
Mark Wilson ... The 2009 champion at El Camaleon hasn't missed a cut in three tries. Gamers wish that he was exhibiting better form, but that hasn't stopped him from enjoying success before. In fact, it's why he's the poster boy for this section.
Heath Slocum ... Survived the cut in all three starts here with a T3 in 2009 and a T13 in 2010. Also coming off a T16 at The McGladrey Classic -- another track on which he's a horse. Four top 20s in his last six starts dating back to the Web.com Tour Finals.
Not So Fast
Robert Allenby ... It's been 21 months since he lost in an eight-hole, sudden-death playoff to John Huh the last time this tournament was contested. The Aussie really hasn't recovered from that knockout blow. In his last 46 starts worldwide, he's survived only 13 cuts and posted two top 25s.
Johnson Wagner ... Won in a playoff at El Camaleon in 2011 where he found a boatload of confidence, but settled for a T30 in his title defense. Survived only four of his last 15 cuts entering this week.
Alvaro Quiros ... There's a reason he's here this week instead of chasing the riches at the DP World Tour Championship. The six-time European Tour winner underwent surgery on his right wrist nearly a year ago. He picked up five top 25s in 19 starts (and got married over the summer), which essentially mirrors his long-term form on his home circuit, but many gamers expect more given his cachet. Tied for 28th in his only start at El Camaleon in 2008.
Back in the Saddle
Jerry Kelly ... Couldn't give it a go for his second round at Seaside last week due to a back injury. He's 5-for-5 at El Camaleon with a T5 in 2009. The course won't overpower anyone, so he's not an automatic fade.
Jarrod Lyle ... Returns from his second bout with leukemia. Coincidentally, while his last competition anywhere was at the 2012 OHL Classic at Mayakoba, he's teeing it up at this week's Talisker Masters on the PGA Tour of Australia.
Chris Kirk ... The McGladrey Classic champion suddenly has a new set of commitments that come with the spoils. It includes starts at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, Masters, World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship.
Angel Cabrera ... Nursing an ailing left shoulder. This chases a wrist injury over the summer.
Roberto Castro ... By withdrawing, he'll enter the holiday break with only a T35 at the CIMB Classic on the board.
Russell Henley ... He's 2-for-3 early on and has broken par in each of the first rounds of his starts, but hasn't picked off another red number in seven rounds thereafter.
Kris Blanks ... Withdrew after 22 holes of The McGladrey Classic with a shoulder injury that just won't get out of his way. He then pulled out of this week's tournament.
Brad Fritsch ... Poised to compete in next week's World Cup of Golf in Australia.
Daniel Chopra ... Fully exempt as a Web.com Tour Finals grad, but will compete on the Asian Tour for the second consecutive week.