Fantasy preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

February 07, 2012
Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist

If you play the Yahoo! game, this is one of the more unusual weeks of the year. Not only does the cut fall after 54 holes (at low 60 and ties) but Monterey Peninsula Country Club plays to a par 70. Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are par 72s.

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Power Rankings
Rob Bolton breaks down the field in this week's Power Rankings.

Despite the potential confusion on the leaderboard, Yahoo! keeps it simple by using scores in relation to par. For example, a 4-under 68 at Pebble is more valuable than a 3-under 67 at Monterey Peninsula. Even so, as I explained in Monday's Power Rankings, Monterey Peninsula remains your best bet for Yahoo!.

Meanwhile, the PGA TOUR Matchups Game has returned on Facebook. It starts this week and will run through THE TOUR Championship. Thirty-two $50 gift cards will be awarded to the 32 weekly winners. The season-long champ will receive a $1,000 gift card while the grand prize winner will be rewarded with a $1,500 gift card.

I am ineligible for the prizes but will share my picks and post my record in this space throughout the season.

My picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am:

Tiger Woods over Dustin JohnsonNick Watney over Phil Mickelson • Aaron Baddeley over Geoff Ogilvy • Vijay Singh over Jim Furyk • Ian Poulter over Ryan Moore

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Spencer Levin (3); Nick Watney (4); Phil Mickelson (11); Sean O'Hair (13)

Group B ... Bryce Molder (1); Tiger Woods (2); Hunter Mahan (5); D.A. Points (6); Dustin Johnson (9); *Brandt Snedeker (14)

Group C ... D.J. Trahan (7); Trevor Immelman (8); Vijay Singh (10); Bob Estes (12); Jeff Maggert (15)

* - Snedeker withdrew on Monday.

Sleepers Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... J.B. Holmes

Group B ... Brendan Steele; Jimmy Walker

Group C ... Alex Cejka; Josh Teater

On a Roll (Yahoo! Group)

Rob's Yahoo! lineup
Group A: Spencer Levin; Nick Watney
Group B: Dustin Johnson; Hunter Mahan; Bryce Molder; Tiger Woods
Group C: Trevor Immelman; D.J. Trahan
YAHOO! STATS: 592 points; 47,024th place
ONE-AND-DONE: Bryce Molder ... 2012 EARNINGS: $198,726.00
DUFFER: Scott Brown ... 2012 EARNINGS: $103,600.00
2012 PROJECTIONS (All 246 players)
1-50 | 51-100 | 101-150 | 151-200 | 201-246

John Huh (n/a) ... Despite Sunday fades the last two weeks, he's posted a T6 (Farmers) and a T12 (WMPO) to sit 26th in FedExCup Points. The rookie relies on hitting fairways (17th on TOUR) but also sits 10th in the all-around.

Kevin Na (A) ... Good mojo as he arrives at Pebble Beach where he's 3-for-5 with no top 40s. Cruised home at TPC Scottsdale with a seven-birdie 65 to share fifth place.

Rory Sabbatini (A) ... Posted a pair of top 15s before taking the last two weeks off. Currently fifth on TOUR in Strokes Gained-Putting. Crazy record at Pebble Beach where he's made the cut in just half of his 10 starts but hasn't finished worse than T15 (twice) when he has survived the cut.

Pat Perez (C) ... After opening his season with a T46 at the Sony Open, he's strung together three top 25s. Has missed just two cuts in nine starts at Pebble Beach.

Chris Stroud (B) ... Top 15s in two of his first three starts including a T12 last week. Currently fifth in scrambling and 10th in adjusted scoring. His lone cut made in five appearances at Pebble Beach was a T6 in 2009.

Martin Flores (B) ... Chased his career-best T8 at the Farmers with a T19 at TPC Scottsdale. Ranks second on TOUR in Strokes Gained-Putting. Regardless of what happens the rest of the West Coast Swing, he's going to zoom up the reshuffle. If the first phase ended following the Waste Management Phoenix Open, he'd have climbed 41 spots.

Horses for Courses (Yahoo! Group)

Aaron Baddeley (C) ... Off to a sluggish start but he's a predictable ninth in Strokes Gained-Putting. Tied for sixth here last year. He also ranked inside the top seven in greens hit, putting and birdies that week.

John Mallinger (C) ... Finished in third place in his first two visits here (2007-08) but hasn't cracked a top 30 in the last three; he missed last year's cut. However, arguably reborn since his torrid stretch on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, and with a co-runner-up at the Humana Challenge three weeks ago, he's a calculated flier this week.

Tom Gillis (C) ... He's missed his first three cuts but has recorded top 10s here the last two years and has been under par in all 12 of his rounds in three starts (dating back to 2005 when Poppy Hills was included in the rotation). Co-led the field in greens in regulation last year.

Matt Jones (C) ... Roller coaster of a week at TPC Scottsdale (4-under 67-72-67-74=280) where he placed T40 in his 2012 debut. Hasn't missed a cut in four starts at Pebble Beach. Top 15s the last two years.

Zack Miller (C) ... The San Francisco-area native and resident (and product of Stanford) posted the only top 10 of his career at this event last year. He has conditional status so keep an eye on him as the season progresses. He might make for an inexpensive investment once the schedule opens up in late April.

Leaking Oil (Yahoo! Group)

Danny Lee (B) ... After sharing fifth place at the Singapore Open in mid-November, he's gone 2-for-6 worldwide with no top 25s. His lone cut made in four starts this season is a T66 at the Humana Challenge.

Jason Kokrak (B) ... After opening his rookie year with a T75/MDF at the Sony Open, he's missed three straight cuts. All of his last five rounds are over par.

Ryuji Imada (B) ... Virtually the same start to 2012 as Kokrak. Imada placed T71/MDF at Waialae and has missed his last three cuts. In his last five rounds, he's shot par twice and over par thrice.

Troy Matteson (B), Matt Bettencourt (C) and Arjun Atwal (C) ... All have started 0-for-4.

J.J. Henry (B), Hunter Haas (B) and Mathew Goggin (C) ... All have started 0-for-3.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Ryan Moore (B) ... Closed 77-78 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he led the field in bogeys and also swallowed two doubles and a triple. Currently 65th in the world ranking and on the bubble for the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship whose field is determined after this weekend's action around the world concludes. (No. 17 Phil Mickelson has already announced that he will not compete in the Match Play.)

Martin Laird (C) ... Coming of a disappointing T61 at TPC Scottsdale where he ranked T72 in greens hit and T62 in Strokes Gained-Putting. He's missed the cut in both of his appearances at Pebble Beach (2008, 2010).

Zach Johnson (A) ... While he placed T8 in his last start at the Humana Challenge, he squeaks into this category due to his seven-year hiatus from his one appearance here in 2004.

Arron Oberholser (n/a) ... Finally "defending" his lone PGA TOUR title, albeit six years later. Injuries have prevented him from returning since 2006. Missed the cut on the number last week in Scottsdale, an acceptable result given it was his only official start anywhere since October 2009. Unfortunately, his left hand didn't escape Arizona without some concern. For the full report, read Helen Ross' entry in The TOUR Report.

Stuart Appleby (C) ... He's opened 0-for-2 and that was coming off a back injury. The Aussie tied for 15th here last year but he was in much better form at the time.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Mike Weir (C) ... First start anywhere since having surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow on Aug. 18. With five top fives at Pebble Beach, he was once a lock for fantasy games at this event but leave him alone until he logs a few rounds. For the record, he has three starts remaining on a Non-exempt Medical Extension to earn $644,854 and get elevated to the Major Medical category.

Paul Goydos (B) ... Withdrew from last week's stop in Arizona for a myriad of maladies. Per his Twitter page: "Got no game whatsoever!! Left Wrist, Right Elbow, and left knee are hurting. It's only The first week in February!! Going to be a long year." Pebble Beach might be an elixir as he's posted five top 15s in 16 career appearances, including a T5 two years ago.

Tommy Gainey (B) ... Rough start to 2012 with a T79/MDF at the Sony Open, a pair of missed cuts and a withdrawal at TPC Scottsdale due to an illness. He started slow last year as well so continue to give him time to find a groove.

Dudley Hart (n/a) ... First action since his setback in Australia 14 months ago. Has 13 starts on his Major Medical Extension to earn $504,284 and retain status. If you're new to fantasy golf and not familiar with Hart, he's only 43 years old and has a history of dynamic performances. Finished 12th in FedExCup Points just four years ago.

Steve Wheatcroft (B) ... Withdrew from the Monday qualifier (Jan. 30) at last week's Waste Management Phoenix Open due to a health scare. Here's what he wrote about the ordeal in three tweets on Twitter that same day: "Played 3 holes and called for an ambulance. Literally. Spent afternoon in hospital. All is fine, just not getting the blood I need to brain. ... Obviously not the day I had planned, but sometimes the big guy upstairs has other ideas for you. Gotta keep chugging and see what's next. ... Not in hospital any more. Really no cure or prevention techniques. All tests, bloodwork, EKG's, cat-scans, etc came back perfectly healthy."

David Duval (C) ... Back in action after his late scratch from the Farmers two weeks ago due to the flu. Three-time runner-up at Pebble Beach, including in 2010.

Fred Funk (C) ... Scheduled to compete in the Allianz Championship on the Champions Tour. First start since July. Had two surgeries in early August (left thumb, right knee). Still has status on the PGA TOUR via a Major Medical Extension (six starts).

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Brandt Snedeker (B) ... Finished T50 in the wake of his playoff victory at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Briny Baird (B) ... He's started the new season 0-for-3.