Draws and Fades: Sanderson Farms Championship

After its last week off until the holiday hiatus, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is back for the first of eight consecutive tournaments. The stretch begins with this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship and concludes familiarly with The RSM Classic on Nov. 17-20. For the record, the RSM also will mark the finish lines for Segment 1 and the first phase of the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle category, not to mention it’s also the last fall portion of the last wraparound season.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking

Draws and Fades published during the week of the Presidents Cup, so you’re excused if you missed it. If you did, I took advantage of the open mic to analyze the impact of the revised scoring in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf at the Fortinet Championship. If you’d like to read it, click or tap here.

With higher fantasy totals promised, there’s going to be a greater separation between contenders and also-rans this season. The inflation increases the risk of the risk-reward dynamic of fantasy, so our job is to manage that risk accordingly. Too much risk requires too much success to pay off, but we’re going to be just fine in making cuts and hanging up four numbers even when we don’t own winners in final rounds.

If you’re keen on longer-range planning, remember that neither the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP nor THE CJ CUP at South Carolina will have a cut. While those fields won’t be cemented for a couple of weeks, the top 60 in season-ending FedExCup Playoffs Eligibility points are automatically exempt.

Of course, it doesn’t mean that all will commit and compete, but knowing that you’ll be able to lean on notables across a two-week stretch without the sweat of swallowing zeroes should positively influence a sooner decision to roster a stud like Sahith Theegala in Mississippi this week. Even if he happens to win either of the limited-field invitationals coming up, overall points scored in both events will mitigate the blow of a victory if your opposition connects and you don’t.

If you’re not picking up what I just laid down, read last week’s Draws and Fades linked above. It explains how fantasy scoring is more widely distributed with pars worth one point.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Chris Kirk (-110 for a Top 40) … While I’ve distanced from slotting a non-winner atop most Power Rankings – this week’s is an exception, of course – for readers who have questioned it over time, I’ve often referred to the 2011 edition of this tournament. That was when Kirk sat No. 1 for what was known as the Viking Classic. He was a PGA TOUR rookie and a non-winner at the time. Then, boom – he won. He’s returned seven times since, cashing in six but not for a top 30 since a distant T2 in 2016. So, note the regression in the projection for the bet. He’s converted 11 top-40 finishes in individual competition since a T35 here last year.

DRAWS

Seamus Power (-125 for a Top 40) … He’s played only four times in the last three months, so he’s not worn down but he’s not rusty. The East Tennessee State product from Ireland is comfortable in these climes and he’s had a modicum of success at Country Club of Jackson with a pair of top 20s contributing to a 3-for-5 slate. He pops often enough that I’m never worried about an extended slump no matter the reason. And at 35, he’s in his prime, so the only surprise is if he stops delivering as often as he has for us.

Peter Malnati (+200 for a Top 40) … It’s going to be tough to find the right usage, if at all. He prevailed here in 2015 and was the runner-up in 2020. Those successes punctuate six paydays in seven consecutive appearances, but he’s almost never the focus of any short-term considerations. The compliment is that he’s always figured it out, but he’s been among the most unpredictable in real time.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-160 for a Top 40) … No one played as little as his two matches at the Presidents Cup, so it’d be curious if he’s sluggish in his tournament debut in Mississippi. It also was his only live action in a month. He makes most cuts, and he recorded 10 top 40s in individual competition in the 2022 portion of last season, so this is a proper target. Sprinkling into DFS normally would have merit, but he’s a glossier name these days, so ownership percentages will be high.

Justin Suh (+110 for a Top 40) … Massive letdown at Fortinet. OK, OK, that’s harsh, but it’s also evidence of the challenge to elevate. Retain the faith because he’s generated that equity, but just remember that, as convincing as he is that he’s the latter, we’re still learning if he’ll be a horse or a hoss.

Keegan Bradley
Will Gordon
Nick Hardy
Mackenzie Hughes
Russell Knox
Robby Shelton
Kevin Streelman

Odds sourced on Tuesday, September 27th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Sepp Straka … Fresh off what so far is his career season on the PGA TOUR, what with a win, a second and a T3 fueling his debut at the TOUR Championship (where he finished T7), he’s set up to sustain it. However, there have been cautionary tales who have reached the promised land only to struggle in regaining traction the very next season. They know who they are; fantasy owners of those guys do as well. He doesn’t project to tumble into oblivion but he’s 0-for-4 at CC of Jackson with a scoring average of 72, which is par for a course for which par is not an impressive score. Give him time, but the most intriguing component of his 2022-23 will be how he sets up his schedule. He’s been one of the busiest out there, but now it would make sense to adopt a less-is-more approach and focus on the stops where he’s most comfortable and rewarded.

Gary Woodland … Nothing has changed for a while now, so you already know that his value is stronger in the long-term. Missed the cut in his debut here last year and he’s connected for only one top 25 in his last 10 starts upon arrival.

Ryan Armour … Broke through here in 2017 but it’s his only top-45 finish among three paydays in seven trips. He’s also missed five straight cuts on the PGA TOUR. We love his perspective and the wisdom of a man of a certain age, but he’s not for the fantasy gamer with a weak heart.

Brendon Todd … It’s an anomaly until it’s a trend, but when the trend itself is an anomaly, it fortifies the takeaway. He’s 0-for-5 at CC of Jackson. While the first three missed cuts occurred during his career nadir, anything he yields is a bonus. Of course, that means that he’s also the ultimate contrarian for investors who love the speculative.

Joel Dahmen … Statistically, he checks a bunch of the boxes, especially from tee to green and even lightly in par-5 scoring, but the cult hero is 1-for-5 with a T81 at Wyndham in the last three months. And neither of his paydays in three tries at CC of Jackson went for a top 50.

Lucas Glover
C.T. Pan
Chez Reavie

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Brandon Matthews … In what was an inauspicious rookie debut, he walked off Silverado with an injured back during his opening round of the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago. For the moment, he presents only as a complement in deep full-season rosters or as a flier in fractional considerations in DFS.

NOTABLE WDs

Sebastián Muñoz … CC of Jackson is the site of his only PGA TOUR victory (in 2019) and he’s been a loyalist to the tournament, but it’s also understandable that he wants a break after last week’s stress of the Presidents Cup where he went undefeated in three matches, albeit in a losing cause.

Cameron Champ … Since breaking through for his first PGA TOUR title here in 2018, his only return trip was for his title defense (T28), so it was mildly surprising that he had committed in the first place. Opened this season with a missed cut at Silverado.

Danny Lee … This would have marked his first visit since his debut at CC of Jackson in 2014. Recently sat out several weeks with a sore hip only to return in the Playoffs to miss the cut in the first leg. Then opened this season with the same result at the Fortinet. It’s one thing to play (or try to play) through an injury when status is locked up, as he seemed to have done for most of 2022, but now that he’s reset for 2022-23, he’ll be less likely to push it too hard. In the scenario that the sky is falling, every start he makes would deduct one from a medical extension, if necessary, beginning next season. In other words, he has no reason to try to compete until he’s as close to 100 percent as possible.

RECAP – PRESIDENTS CUP

POWER RANKINGS - UNITED STATES

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Justin Thomas 4-1-0
2 Patrick Cantlay 3-1-0
3 Xander Schauffele 3-1-0
4 Jordan Spieth 5-0-0
5 Scottie Scheffler 0-3-1
6 Max Homa 4-0-0
7 Collin Morikawa 2-1-0
8 Billy Horschel 1-2-0
9 Tony Finau 3-1-0
10 Sam Burns 0-3-2
11 Kevin Kisner 0-2-1
12 Cameron Young 1-2-1

POWER RANKINGS – INTERNATIONALS

Power Ranking Golfer Record
1 Sungjae Im 2-2-1
2 Adam Scott 2-3-0
3 Hideki Matsuyama 1-3-1
4 Tom Kim 2-3-0
5 Cam Davis 2-3-0
6 Corey Conners 0-4-0
7 Mito Pereira 0-2-1
8 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1-0-1
9 Sebastián Muñoz 2-0-1
10 Taylor Pendrith 0-4-0
11 K.H. Lee 2-1-0
12 Si Woo Kim 3-1-0

GOLFBET

Bet: Internationals +6.5 points (+100)
Result: U.S. 17.5, Internationals 12.5

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

September 27 … none
September 28 … none
September 29 … Matthew NeSmith (29)
September 30 … none
October 1 … Scott Gutschewski (46); Grayson Murray (29)
October 2 … George McNeill (47); Callum Tarren (32)
October 3 … Danny Willett (35)

Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. Set a budget. Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds. Play with trusted, licensed operators. CLICK HERE to learn more at HaveAGamePlan.org.