Draws and Fades: BMW Championship

When constructing your lineup in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, remember that there is no cut at the BMW Championship, so your focus should be on leaderboard finish. Of course, given that we’re in the FedExCup Playoffs in which bonus points are quadrupled, that already was the plan, but there’s no need for insurance.

RELATED: Statistically speaking, Sleeper picks

Next week’s TOUR Championship also promises four rounds to all 30 who qualify and commit, but because Starting Strokes determine opening position and stroke play thereafter determines the final leaderboard, there are no FedExCup points awarded in the season finale. To compensate, as noted in Rules, the same bonus structure utilized in the first two Playoffs events will be applied to leaderboard finish in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Therefore, a win will yield 200 bonus points, second place will award 120, and so on.

While that should be self-explanatory, it’s still important to specify that only the actual leaderboard will be used and not pure aggregate scoring, just like the real thing. If the champion happens to have taken the fewest strokes over 72 holes, then it’s just a coincidence that he won.

My tradition of slotting everyone who commits to the TOUR Championship in its Power Rankings will continue on Monday. Therefore, Draws and Fades also will be customarily thin, but it still will publish.

As gamers and fans soak up the final fortnight of the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, my attention is rapidly pivoting to turning over my familiar franchises for 2022-23. I’ll also be sharing my annual full-membership fantasy ranking with a target pub time-date of right around when the field for the Fortinet Championship will be released on Friday, Sept. 9, give or take a day or two due to a few factors.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Cameron Young (-160 for a Top 20) … The rookie is rightfully lauded for the elevated balance of his game, not to mention his sheer fierceness when he’s in the hunt, which has been quite often. However, even keen gamers may not be aware that he leads the PGA TOUR in distance of all drives. On a 7,534-yard course new to just about everyone, muscling it off the tee is advantage personified. He’s 13th in the FedExCup, so he’s positioned best for pacers who have built a wall at the TOUR Championship. Then again, the conservative among that crowd might not lean into a first-timer no matter the fit, so the stars could align for chasers as well. As always, it depends on how well you understand your opposition.

DRAWS

Corey Conners (+130 for a Top 20) … He’s been a top-25 machine all season, but therein lies the rub. The Canuck has connected for only three top 10s, two of which in stroke-play competition. However, since he’s put four rounds together with regularity, that consistency is amplified in a contest with no cut. Even better for all, his profile as a tee-to-green behemoth should grant him the confidence he needs to retain position inside the top 30 of the FedExCup. He’s currently 29th.

J.T. Poston (+200 for a Top 20) … Setting aside his 11th-hour qualification for The Open Championship where he missed the cut, he’s been phenomenal in the other five of his last six starts. He’s 24th in the FedExCup, so he’s poised to advance to the TOUR Championship for the first time, but he’s performing like he’s a legitimate threat to spoil the experience for the most notable who will be there with him. It’s all come together at the right time.

Brian Harman
Russell Henley
Maverick McNealy
Taylor Pendrith
Davis Riley

Odds sourced on Tuesday, August 16th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Billy Horschel … When you distill everything we review and what influences our decisions, ultimately we land somewhere on the spectrum of trust. He had 100 percent of mine at TPC Southwind last week because he’s had so much success on that track over the years. His analytics this year also have corroborated his rhetoric about being in the best form of his career. Yet, he missed the cut (on the number) last week, and he’s still without a top 20 since the win at Muirfield Village in early June.

Marc Leishman … Held on to 68th in the FedExCup after last week’s T64. It ended an 0-for-3 skid, so there’s that, but it’s been months since he’s inspired us.

Mito Pereira … After sustaining a full season’s worth of form to be inside the top 30 of the FedExCup a little over a month ago, he’s drifted to 41st on a 1-for-5 slide. So, the expected approach is that he’ll have everything to gain and nothing to lose, but the recent form doesn’t suggest that he’ll reignite in Delaware.

Keegan Bradley
Adam Hadwin
Tom Hoge
Mackenzie Hughes
Matt Kuchar
Luke List
Troy Merritt
Sebastián Muñoz
Cameron Tringale

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Hideki Matsuyama … Opted against playing the St. Jude due to a sore neck. He would have been returning from an injured left wrist that knocked him out of the 3M Open after one round, so dude is banged up. A healthy 30-year-old is the archetype for the test this week. He’s a long-hitting, tee-to-green beast with unfamiliar greens benefiting average putters. Instead, he’s a risk and a contrarian. And at 15th in the FedExCup, he’s also a lock to advance to the TOUR Championship, so it’s fair to wonder how much he’s willing to push it if he doesn’t open strong in Delaware.

Alex Noren … Walked off TPC Southwind early in the second round last week with discomfort in his neck. He was miles from making the cut, so he eliminated the possibility of doing further damage. The Swede was the runner-up in his previous start at the Barracuda, so he angled into the Playoffs as a bit of a disruptor. Now 66th in points, he’d need another podium finish or thereabouts just to survive.

Kyle Stanley … Sidelined since a T38 (with Camilo Villegas) at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He hasn’t competed anywhere since. An explanation hasn’t been released, but he’ll be back at it for the Albertsons Boise Open presented by Chevron to open the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. No doubt the 34-year-old is poised for a medical extension on the PGA TOUR regardless of his results of the next three weeks.

Bronson Burgoon … Like Stanley, Burgoon also has been shelved, albeit for a little longer. He hasn’t pegged it since missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open over four months ago, so he’d be in position for a medical extension as well next season. He’s also committed in Boise.

NOTABLE WDs

Cameron Smith … Resting a sore hip. He’s third in the FedExCup, so he’ll be in position to strike at the TOUR Championship, but he’d lose one slot each at the BMW Championship if Sam Burns records no worse than a two-way T28 and Tony Finau connects for no worse than a two-way T10. All others would need top-six finishes and better to knock the Aussie down another spot.

Tommy Fleetwood … Sat out the FedEx St. Jude Championship for personal reasons and fell nine spots to 56th in the FedExCup. When he alerted followers on Twitter on Aug. 6 that he was “taking time out to be at home,” he didn’t specify when he would return, so there was a shred of possibility that he’d be back for the BMW Championship. Alas, his season is officially over.

RECAP – FedEx St. Jude Championship

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Cameron Smith T13
2 Patrick Cantlay T57
3 Tony Finau T5
4 Rory McIlroy MC
5 Xander Schauffele T57
6 Matt Fitzpatrick T5
7 Scottie Scheffler MC
8 Justin Thomas T13
9 Sungjae Im 12th
10 Jordan Spieth MC
11 Will Zalatoris Win
12 Tom Kim T13
13 Jon Rahm T5
14 Billy Horschel MC
15 Sam Burns T20
16 Russell Henley MC
17 Tyrrell Hatton T31
18 Collin Morikawa T5
19 Max Homa T42
20 Cameron Young T31
Wild Card Shane Lowry T46

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result
Chesson Hadley (+250 for a Top 40) MC
Adam Long (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Adam Scott (+110 for a Top 40) T5
Adam Svensson (+200 for a Top 40) T51
Brandon Wu (+180 for a Top 40) MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

August 16 … Will Zalatoris (26)
August 17 … none
August 18 … Cameron Smith (29)
August 19 … Jhonattan Vegas (38)
August 20 … Zac Blair (32)
August 21 … J.J. Spaun (32)
August 22 … none