Case for (and against) Jon Rahm as Farmers Insurance Open favorite

Jon Rahm’s quest for three straight wins on the PGA TOUR continues to gather steam after a 6-under 66 in the third round of the Farmers Insurance Open moved the Spaniard to second place, just two back of Sam Ryder.

Just one round remains ahead of the special Saturday finish at Torrey Pines with Ryder sitting at 12-under as he chases his first TOUR win and Rahm breathing heavily down his neck at 10-under. Last year’s winner Luke List came from five back in the final round, leaving another five contenders feeling confident this week.

Whether you picked up the juicy triple figure odds on Ryder pre-tournament or went all in on Rahm as the heavy pre-tournament favorite, you’re facing a nervous finish. Let’s take a look at the players on top of the board at BetMGM Sportsbook and check the case FOR and the case AGAINST their chance to take home the Torrey trophy.

JON RAHM, -10, 2nd (+125 to win)

Case For: Rahm won the Farmers Insurance in 2017 and the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in 2021. His last four Farmers results are T5-2-T7-T3. He’s also won his last two PGA TOUR starts and four of his last six worldwide. Ranks ninth this week Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee when keeping the ball in play out of tough Torrey rough is imperative. “I've won my last two tournaments, so I have no reason not to believe that I can do it one more time,” Rahm said Friday. “I've been swinging it beautifully all week and it just keeps getting better and better so hopefully tomorrow I can do what needs to be done.”

Case Against: Honestly, it’s hard to find one. But let’s nitpick. Rahm has lost almost a stroke (-0.827) to the field in his two rounds on the South Course so far this week around the greens. If, and it’s a big if, he finds himself missing the putting surfaces on approach things might get a little dicey. And look, winning three starts in a row on TOUR is incredibly rare these days. It’s only happened twice in the last decade.

SAM RYDER, -12, 1st (+275 to win)

Case For: Well, he’s the leader. That’s a start. Ryder has been stoic with just two bogeys in three rounds and he’s gained over four strokes (4.092) on the field with his approach play. He’s 9/10 scrambling from tough spots, ranking first in the field. “I don't feel like I have a lot of weaknesses with my game right now,” Ryder said Friday. “I'm not really trying to overcontrol it, I'm just trying to embrace it and enjoy it because this is ultimately what we want, right? That's why we play.”

Case Against: Ryder is yet to win on TOUR and he has to play with the Torrey T-Rex in Rahm in the final round – as intimidating as it might get. In his previous five attempts at Torrey, he has just one top 10 (T10 in 2021) and a year ago he opened with an 80 on the South Course. His second round 68 from this week is his career low on the South and he’s played the par-5s on the South in just two-under over two rounds.

TONY FINAU, -8, 3rd (+650 to win)

Case For: Finau is on a roll playing his last 30 holes 11 under after looking set to miss the cut. After gaining three strokes late in round two to survive on the number put up the round of the day with an 8-under 64 on Friday to be just four back. Ranks third in SG: Approach, eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 18th in SG: Around the Green. Has seven top 25s at Torrey, four of which are Top-10s.

Case Against: Despite his stellar round on Friday Finau ranks 65th in SG: Putting this week. One can’t afford many misses when the tournament goes on the line. But he claims he’s got it under control. “First couple days the putter was quite cold and (I was) not very comfortable over it, but a couple of adjustments in setup and rolled it a lot better today,” Finau admitted. “It was evident with the putts that went in from short range for me. I've actually hit it really nicely all three days, I just capitalized on putts, par saves and birdie putts that I really needed today.”

COLLIN MORIKAWA, -7, T4 (+1400 to win)

Case For: Morikawa is hungry as he’s looking to rebound from his epic collapse to Rahm at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He ranks first in the field in SG: Approach and 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Was T4 at the U.S. Open at Torrey in 2021. “If I put together 18 good holes, we could be right there,” he said.

Case Against: Worryingly, he has lost over two shots to the field putting (-2.391) to be ranked 68th. Can his putter, and new chipping style, hold up under the pressure given what we saw in Maui? “Putting has kind of felt, it's been off and on. It hasn't felt great, but it hasn't felt terrible,” Morikawa added.

MAX HOMA, -7, T4 (+1600 to win)

Case For: Homa is trying to grab another win in California to go with his two Fortinet Championships and his Genesis Invitational. He’s ranked second in SG: Approach this week and is usually one of the better putters on poa. “If I play the way I played today and make some putts, I'll be fine… I'm very happy with my golf game, just need to keep doing exactly what I'm doing and just be patient,” Homa said.

Case Against: Homa has missed four cuts in six previous tries at the Farmers Insurance Open. And while his two trips around Torrey South’s front nine so far have been played in five under, he’s two over on the back nine with just two birdies. It’s likely the winner will need to make some back nine moves in the final round.

* Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. BetMGM is available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY only. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Paid in free bets. Free bets expire in 7 days from issuance. Minimum deposit required. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, DC, LA, NV, WY, VA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (IN, NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), call or text the Tennessee REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN) or call 1-888-777-9696 (MS). Sports betting is void where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada.