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September 11 2013

12:36 PM

How Stenson could fall outside top 5

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Henrik Stenson has the inside track to a top-five spot, but there are no guarantees.

By Mike McAllister, PGATOUR.COM

LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- From a historical perspective, Henrik Stenson can expect to be inside the top five in FedExCup points after this week's BMW Championship.

After all, he starts No. 1 in points after winning the Deutsche Bank Championship. In the previous four years in the current FedExCup points configuration, no player who has won one of the first three Playoffs events has ever fallen outside the top five before reaching the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola.

But mathematically speaking, Stenson is not a 100 percent iron-clad lock to stay inside the top five. And of course, if he isn't a lock, neither are any of the other four players inside the top five. (For an in-depth look at the top five, click here)

Here's one scenario in which Stenson could fall outside the top five:

Steve Stricker wins the BMW Championship and earns 2,500 FedExCup points. That puts his total to 5,117 points.

Justin Rose finishes solo second and earns 1,500 points. That puts him at 4,164.

Matt Kuchar finishes solo third and earns 1,000 points. That puts him at 4,103 points.

Adam Scott finishes solo fourth and earns 750 points. That puts him at 4,667 points.

Tiger Woods finishes solo fifth and earns 550 points. That puts him at 4,587 points.

Stenson finishes at best in solo 61st in the 70-man field. That puts him at 4,101 points.

In that scenario, the points standings would like like this before the reset:

 

Rank Player FedExCup points
1 Steve Stricker 5,117
2 Adam Scott 4,667
3 Tiger Woods 4,587
4 Justin Rose 4,164
5 Matt Kuchar 4,103
6 Henrik Stenson 4,101

That's just one scenario; others exist. But if Stenson plays reasonably well this week, he won't have to worry. Given that hot hand he's currently showing right now, it's difficult to imagine he'd do anything but continue it at Conway Farms.

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