By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW:
The Greenbrier Classic
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Yep, Tiger Woods is back. After his third victory of the
season on Sunday, he's once again forcing Yahoo! gamers to think
about when to plug him in. On the surface, that's an absurd
statement given all golfers get only 10 starts and strategy is
inherent. However, taking a peek at the last two years, there is
considerable and sudden relevance to the notion. After a mammoth
2009, he managed only two top 10s in 2010 -- neither of which
victories -- in just 12 starts. Battling injuries in 2011, he teed
it up only nine times. Toss in the dynamic that in 2010 he became
eligible for Life Membership. That's important to gamers since he
doesn't have to play the minimum 15 tournaments required by all
non-Life Members. In a sense, he earned the simplistic approach to
invest
every time he
committed to a tournament. If anything, the angle was to project
when he wouldn't succeed, leaning on others in counter defense.
Those days are apparently over. Healthy and active again, he's
10-for-11 this year with the aforementioned three wins, another top
10 and three more top 25s. He arrived at his first Greenbrier
Classic in a familiar spot, atop both the FedExCup standings and
the money list. (He's also first in adjusted scoring, a stat in
which the touring pros take great pride.) Since he hoisted his
third piece of hardware on Sunday at Congressional, the hot-button
issue has been how to manage whatever starts you have remaining.
This email is a prime example:
I only have four starts left for him. Think I have to hold
off for the majors and the FedExCup, but considering he won
Arnie’s, Jack’s and his own tournaments, it seems
natural for him to take the one at Sam’s house! --
Joe Joe likely owns the over for number of starts
remaining for Woods. I have only two left; the majority seems to
have two or three. With the assumption that all of us are going to
exhaust all 10, it's time to prioritize, if not ration. And I don't
agree with Joe's plan. After this week's stop at The Old White TPC,
he's scheduled to compete in the British Open in two weeks, the
World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational two weeks after
that and the PGA Championship immediately following the WGC. The
FedExCup Playoffs begin two weeks after the PGA, so he could add as
many as four more tournaments to his schedule. That's up to eight
more opportunities in Yahoo!'s format. First and foremost, if you
have one start remaining, save it for the WGC at Firestone. Despite
a pair of forgettable finishes the last two years, he's owned that
track with seven victories, one co-runner-up and a pair of
fourth-place finishes. Moreover, both of his last two results can
be excused for different reasons. Before circling a No. 2 site to
invest, both of the remaining majors could be crapshoots.
Certainly, Woods will be motivated, favored, etc., but course
history means little at the British and weather (i.e. wind) could
swing scoring toward a specific draw at either. Unless you have as
many as seven starts to use, I'm advising taking a pass on the
majors. I'll be saving my second start for the TOUR Championship.
He won at East Lake in 2007 and finished solo second in 2004, 2005
and 2009. This is an easy call. For those of you with three starts
to burn, consider the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston. He
won the event in 2006, has logged a pair of T2s and has finished no
worse than T11 in six of his seven appearances. Another factor to
support the Deutsche Bank is that the remaining list of options
equates to a series of the unknown. This week's stop in West
Virginia, The Barclays at Bethpage Black and the BMW Championship
at Crooked Stick are either new to him or contested at sites used
sparingly on the PGA TOUR. Woods has long maintained the most
predictable schedule of anyone on the circuit, so there's value in
sticking with comfort zones. However, Joe and anyone else fortunate
to have as many as four starts to spread out would be wise to save
one for the Playoffs, and likely for The Barclays since he's
navigated Bethpage as recently as the 2009 U.S. Open. What's more,
he tied for sixth that week, best among those caught up in the
wrong side of the draw due to the terrible weather that plagued the
tournament. The fail safe is that Woods will probably reward us
more often than not anyway. Still, the general lesson is that when
counting starts for any golfer in Yahoo!, there are always
approaches that project better than others.