Statistics fuel fantasy sports. That's always been the case. But
understanding the nuances help create an elevated level of
knowledge required to compete. Johnny Sometimer might beat me in
the short-term, but I like my chances over the course of an entire
season. When Strokes Gained-Putting was introduced last year, it
took me a few weeks to wrap my head around the concept. I
understood it in principle, but I needed to connect with it in the
field. In the beginning, I cited historical course rankings in the
stat, only to quickly realize that all tournaments will average
0.000 (give or take few thousandths of a point for negligible
variances). After all, it's inherently defined as a baseline (e.g.
If half the field averages +1.000 on one hole, the other half will
average -1.000 on the same hole). Nowadays I'll refer to putting
average (i.e. putts per greens in regulation), total distance of
putts made or even one-putt and three-putt percentages if relevant,
which isn't often. Every once in a while, a gamer will inquire
about why I don't use a stat that might seem obvious given my
analysis. The latest question arrived in my email box on Tuesday
afternoon.
Hi Rob, I use a combination of stats when putting together
my pick list each week. I've been using the actual scoring average
but noticed you look at the adjusted scoring average. [What is]
adjusted scoring average and why would it be the better or more
accurate stat to use? Thanks. -- Chris For the PGA
TOUR’s link to adjusted scoring ranking,
click here
and scroll down to the bottom. All stats include a
definition/explanation. This stat is used as one of the eight to
compute the all-around ranking and the members covet finishing
first in it. The spoils include the Byron Nelson Award (minimum 50
rounds; presented by the PGA TOUR) and the Vardon Trophy (minimum
60 rounds; presented by the PGA of America). Adjusted scoring is a
fairer measurement in the long-term over actual scoring because the
TOUR uses courses with pars of 70, 71, 72 and 73. To understand its
value, consider the following basic, extreme comparison between
Golfers A and B, both of whom log at least 60 rounds.
Make the following assumptions: - Golfer A plays
only the easiest par 70s. - The overall actual scoring average of
the par 70s = 68.00. - Golfer A averages 67.00. - Differential =
(-1.00). - Golfer B plays only the most difficult par 72s. - The
overall actual scoring average of the par 72s =73.50. - Golfer B
averages 72.00. - Differential = (-1.50). While Golfer A recorded
the lower actual scoring average (by five strokes), his
differential is higher than Golfer B's (by one-half of one stroke).
The lower the negative number of a differential, the better a
golfer is scoring. With that example, you can clearly see the flaw
created by comparing actual scoring averages. The differentials are
much more relevant.