Charles Howell III will be looking to get back on track this week. (Cannon/Getty Images)

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

CHARLES HOWELL III

He's eighth on the PGA TOUR in FedExCup points and he finished T19 in his last appearance at Redstone in 2011, but he's gone four straight starts in full-field stroke-play events without cracking the top 25. Placed T45 at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard where he finished outside the top 25 in all relevant splits. For the season, he's 21st on TOUR in strokes gained-putting, 12th in adjusted scoring and fourth in scrambling.

Click here to check out Bolton's Power Rankings for the Shell Houston Open

Tiger Woods hits his approach to the par-5 sixth at Bay Hill in 2011. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

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On the road to 76 PGA TOUR victories, Tiger Woods has obliterated par 5s. This is no secret. And if he's going to pick off No. 77 in what would be his eighth title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he'll need to keep it floored on holes 4, 6, 12 and 16 that make up the quartet of par 5s at Bay Hill.

 Focusing only on the last three editions of the tournament since its return to a par of 72 (after three years as a par 70), both Woods and 2011 champ Martin Laird led their fields in par-5 scoring average. Ernie Els finished T2 in the stat en route to his victory in 2010. For all intents and purposes, we could call it a day right there. Go low on the par 5s or go home.

 Of course, that would be overlooking that Els (T3), Laird (T7) and Woods (1st) also did work on the par 4s during their victories. This is the only other relevant category where all three rank inside the top 10. Elsewhere, both Els and Laird placed fourth in total driving. Els was T9 in greens in regulation; Woods co-led his field in greens hit. Els (9th) and Woods (4th) also ranked highly in strokes gained-putting, but Woods co-led last year's event in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. Els didn't crack his top 20 in either.

So it goes. Woods was vintage at Bay Hill in 2012, but it was merely an extension of his incomparable record at one of his favorite venues. Yet, it cannot be overemphasized just how dominant he's been on the par 5s, both at Bay Hill and throughout his career as a professional.

In the 14 seasons he's be eligible for official rankings since he joined the PGA TOUR in 1997, he's finished first in par-5 scoring average 10 times (1997-2003, 2005, 2006, 2009). He's also finished second twice (2007, 2013), T5 once (2002) and T6 once (2012).

In his 15 starts as a pro at the API -- including all three times Bay Hill played as a par 70 (2007-2009), he's 113 strokes under par on the par 5s. The breaks down to six eagles, 116 birdies, 83 pars, seven bogeys and four doubles in 216 total occurrences.

 He's gone as low as 14-under on the par 5s in a single week (2000) and has won on five of the six occasions (all during par-72 years) he hit double digits under par in one event. The exception was his first appearance as a pro in 1997 when he scored bogey-free 11-under but settled for a share of ninth place on the leaderboard.

Sergio Garcia has put together a remarkable run of top-25s since his win last August at the Wyndham Championship. (Cannon/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

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Tiger Woods is a must-start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in every fantasy format that rewards success, but one-and-doners are still required to pause and review the options.

If Woods is still available to you and your rules don't exclude burning the defending champion, he makes it awfully difficult to invest elsewhere regardless who you have No. 2 on your board. Not only did he end a two-year winless drought on the PGA TOUR at Bay Hill last year, but he did so in convincing fashion, going five strokes lower than runner-up Graeme McDowell.

Woods either led or co-led the field in greens in regulation, par breakers, par-4 scoring average, par-5 scoring average and scrambling. He also finished fourth in strokes gained-putting. Two weeks ago, he picked off his fifth victory in the last 12 months with a wire-to-wire, two-stroke triumph at the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship. His splits throughout his bag at TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral were ridiculous.

To suggest that you should holster him for the Masters, World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational of the FedExCup Playoffs would be reckless on my part. This is why I'm exhausting my lone self-imposed mulligan on using defending champions and burning him at Bay Hill. Woods' remaining sites for title defenses this season are the Memorial and AT&T National. If I were limiting my options to use my mulligan to events only he has won, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is the runaway choice.

The primary argument against not playing Woods is that this week's purse is just $6.2 million. One-and-doners expect nothing short of a victory when they plug him in, but no second-place paycheck matches the $1,116,000 awarded to the winner at Bay Hill.

If you can't burn him or you're committed to him later, Lake Nona's McDowell is a suitable replacement. Not only is he seeking to climb that final spot on the leaderboard at Bay Hill but he's also red-hot upon arrival.

Another Orlando resident, Ian Poulter, earns an endorsement as well. In his last two trips, he's finished T12 and solo third. What's more, he's still growing on one-and-doners that think of him only as a weapon for match-play events, so you'd likely have little company if you circled the Englishman.

Justin Rose is back in action after a one-week break and immediately returns to our focus at Bay Hill thanks to a T3 in 2011 and a T15 last year, not to mention a hearty T4-T8 start to the Florida Swing. Rest assured that you'll read more about him in this feature later in the season if you don't hop aboard this week.

And just like last week, both Jim Furyk and Sergio Garcia command our attention at Bay Hill, and again, it's but one of many venues where each makes sense. That said, the argument for leaning on Garcia is stronger because he can't miss having posted 13 consecutive top-25s since his win at Sedgefield last August.

SUMMARY
Last week: Jim Furyk; T7; $148,892,85
Overall Record: 10-for-12
Earnings: $2,454,977.85
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s: 7
Top 25s: 9
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

The symmetry between the dynamics of this week's World Golf Championship and its title sponsor, Cadillac, are numerous. Phrases like high living, class and adrenaline spring to mind for 65 of the world's best golfers guaranteed of a big payday in south Florida.

TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral encourages the field to step on it -- and keep it floored. Beginning with the par-5 first, which last year played -0.840 to par (4.160), easiest of any hole on the PGA TOUR over all of the last seven seasons, flag-hunting is not only encouraged -- it's required.

Three of the six champions at the host course since it joined the World Golf Championship family in 2007 have finished first or second in greens in regulation. The last two finished T12 (Nick Watney, 2011) and T17 (Justin Rose, 2012), but each ranked fifth in proximity to the hole, thus increasing his likelihood of burying birdies.

As you'd expect with a scorable par 72, going low on the par 5s is a must. Dating back to Ernie Els in 2010, the champions have finished 1st, T2 and T3, respectively, in par-5 scoring average. Tiger Woods also led his field in 2007.

Geoff Ogilvy (2008) and Phil Mickelson (2009) deviated from this formula, ranking a respective T29 and T38 in par-5 scoring average. Instead, they led their fields in par-4 scoring average. Mickelson's clip of 3.725 is a record in a World Golf Championship event. He carded 15 birdies, 22 pars, two bogeys and one double on the set of 10 par 4s. Ogilvy (T15) is the only winner that didn't finish inside his top five in par breakers, but he was the only champ that led his field in scrambling.

Of course, no reliable vehicle comes without a commensurate braking system and safety features. After the field races through 17 holes at Trump Doral, it will carefully navigate the par-4 18th hole, which played to a scoring average of +0.539 strokes to par last year, highest of any closing hole on TOUR dating back to the 2008 season.

As a result, the finishing hole is no place to take chances. Of the 24 times the last six winners of this event played the hole, only three birdies have been recorded. And of that tiny sample size, Watney's 3 in the finale two years ago stands alone in the last three rounds. (He also has the only double bogey or worse with a 6 in his third round.) As a group, champions have averaged 4.167 on the red-light special of an 18th hole.

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick in Puerto Rico is ...

Y.E. YANG

Fresh off a T18 at The Honda Classic, his best finish in a stroke-play tournament on the PGA TOUR since September of 2011. However, it was the latest of a handful of strong efforts worldwide dating back to last fall. He ranked T5 at PGA National in greens in regulation, second in proximity to the hole and T8 in par-4 scoring average. First-timer at Trump International Golf Club-Puerto Rico.

MORE: Puerto Rico Open Power Rankings

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

WEBB SIMPSON

After a so-so start to the West Coast Swing, he tied for sixth in the Northern Trust Open at Riviera, and then went 3-1 at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship. Faded to a T35 with a closing 77 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship in his debut last year. Ranked T6 for the week in par breakers (1 eagle, 19 birdies). Currently ninth on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, sixth in scrambling and 25th in adjusted scoring.

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

In my Power Rankings on Monday, I cited that Rory McIlroy scored bogey-free 5-under on the two par 5s at PGA National en route to his title at last year's The Honda Classic. I then added that capitalizing on the holes was integral for success this week.

It's time to dig into that a little more.

Since The Honda Classic moved to PGA National in 2007, only two champions have finished inside the top 20 in par-5 scoring average during the week they won. Before McIlroy ranked T7 in 2012, Camilo Villegas co-led his field in 2010. Villegas also placed T1 in par-4 scoring average. Of the six editions, the Colombian holds the marks for lowest aggregate (13-under 267) and widest margin of victory (five strokes).

The total of the other five margins of victory equals five. Therefore, from a statistical standpoint, Villegas is the outlier. (Now three years removed, we can appreciate even more what he accomplished that week after making an early-week trek to his homeland to help kick-start the inaugural Colombia Championship on the Web.com Tour.)

As it relates to scoring on the par 3s and 4s, all six victors ranked inside the top 10 in par-4 scoring average. Four placed inside the top five in par-3 scoring average; Mark Wilson ranked T27 in 2007 while Villegas was T14 in 2010. These splits make sense since most of the winners weren't picking up many strokes against the field on par 5s, but they always post the low aggregate.

Now, to the variable of bogey avoidance also mentioned in the Power Rankings, it's a goal that requires proficiency through most of the bag at PGA National. Getting up and down is imperative, but guys can take the pressure off scrambling by hitting their greens in regulation and limiting three-putts. It sounds elementary but the host course tests the quality of one's execution as well as any track on the PGA TOUR.

All but Rory Sabbatini (2011; T21) ranked inside the top 10 in GIR, but the South African led his field in scrambling. McIlroy then led his field in saving par during Sabbatini's title defense. All six winners ranked inside the top 25 in strokes gained-putting.

A round can unravel quickly, particularly as guys navigate The Bear Trap -- McIlroy was bogey-free 3-under on holes 15, 16 and 17 last year -- so a confident short game and greenside touch will reveal who came to grind.

Ernie Els' record at PGA National puts him on the short list for The Honda Classic. (Ehrmann/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

Now that you've survived the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship by respecting the format which in turn preventing you from burning a big name -- right?! -- it's time to revisit the stable of options for this week's The Honda Classic.

What's interesting and potentially pivotal is that there isn't a frontrunner of a candidate. Twelve of the top 20 all-time money leaders at this event (including pre-2007 when PGA National first hosted) are in the field, but I quickly whittled the list of viable options down to four -- Y.E. Yang (second all-time), Ernie Els (11th), Rory McIlroy (12th) and Justin Rose (17th).

Since many one-and-dones exclude defending champions as an option, omit McIlroy. Until he flashes his usual form, he'll remain holstered anyway. Also consider that the purse is only $6 million, not enough to roll the dice on the Ulsterman. Yang is a former winner (2009) and runner-up (2011), but I'd limit him to a two-man format at best.

Els' five consecutive cuts made at PGA National began with a title in 2008. He makes some sense this week if he wasn't already on your short lists for the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational or the U.S. Open. Plugging him in somewhere on the Florida Swing is almost a no-brainer. Rose has value at quite a few venues, not the least of which is this week's host course where he's posted top fives in his last two visits, finishing at 7-under in each.

Graeme McDowell is another strong choice thanks to top 10s in each of the last two editions. He's also coming off a good showing at Dove Mountain. Last year, I burned Lee Westwood who cooperated with a solo fourth for his second top 10 in three appearances.
 
Yet, while various angles on the aforementioned tug at me, I'm going to ride Charl Schwartzel, who sits No. 1 in my Power Rankings. He's finished T14 (2011) and T5 (2012) in his starts at PGA National and has an active streak of seven consecutive top fives in stroke-play events, including two thrashing victories in December.

SUMMARY

Last week: Ian Poulter; 4th; $500,000.00
Overall Record: 6-for-8
Earnings: $1,725,760.00
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 3
Top 10s: 4
Top 25s: 6
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

MARTIN KAYMER

First-timer at PGA National. When he stated that his entire career may have been riding on the putt that he converted to clinch the Ryder Cup for the Europeans at Medinah last fall, you couldn't blame him despite the hyperbole. Now that we're several months removed, there's evidence that it very well may have been a turning point as well. In 11 starts since, he's logged seven top-11 finishes (all in his last nine events), a grouping that includes a victory at the 12-man Nedbank Golf Challenge.

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

Your plan of attack for the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship should consist of equal parts defense and aggression. Just make sure they are in that order.

Since there is no cut, you are guaranteed a payday, and that introduces non-members into the equation.

If you make the decision to play it safe and burn a non-member, focus on a bracket that seems navigable. All four have formidable challenges, but the Hogan bracket is particularly deep, so it wouldn't be wise to lean on Richie Ramsay, Marcus Fraser, Thongchai Jaidee or Hiroyuki Fujita.

Jamie Donaldson and Thorbjorn Olesen offer one of the more intriguing matchups in the Snead bracket, but one will be gone after one round.

A resurgent Henrik Stenson (Snead bracket), who won this event at The Gallery at Dove Mountain in 2007, or fellow Swede Peter Hanson (Player bracket), who went 3-1 last year, are solid options (and both are PGA TOUR members).

Despite the appeal of a non-member, however, I can't deviate from 2012 Ryder Cup hero and 2010 WGC-Accenture champ, Ian Poulter. He loves match play and you won't miss him later. Even though he lost in the first round each of the last two years, you might as well roll the dice on a guy that offers more hope than most. Best of all, he's in the half of the Snead bracket that doesn't boast the same kind of firepower as any other half-bracket.

SUMMARY

Last week: Jimmy Walker; T16; $99,000.00

Overall Record: 5-for-7

Earnings: $1,225,760.00

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 25s: 5

Missed Cuts: 2

Withdrawals: 0

Disqualifications: 0