Tiger Woods hits his approach to the par-5 sixth at Bay Hill in 2011. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

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On the road to 76 PGA TOUR victories, Tiger Woods has obliterated par 5s. This is no secret. And if he's going to pick off No. 77 in what would be his eighth title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he'll need to keep it floored on holes 4, 6, 12 and 16 that make up the quartet of par 5s at Bay Hill.

 Focusing only on the last three editions of the tournament since its return to a par of 72 (after three years as a par 70), both Woods and 2011 champ Martin Laird led their fields in par-5 scoring average. Ernie Els finished T2 in the stat en route to his victory in 2010. For all intents and purposes, we could call it a day right there. Go low on the par 5s or go home.

 Of course, that would be overlooking that Els (T3), Laird (T7) and Woods (1st) also did work on the par 4s during their victories. This is the only other relevant category where all three rank inside the top 10. Elsewhere, both Els and Laird placed fourth in total driving. Els was T9 in greens in regulation; Woods co-led his field in greens hit. Els (9th) and Woods (4th) also ranked highly in strokes gained-putting, but Woods co-led last year's event in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. Els didn't crack his top 20 in either.

So it goes. Woods was vintage at Bay Hill in 2012, but it was merely an extension of his incomparable record at one of his favorite venues. Yet, it cannot be overemphasized just how dominant he's been on the par 5s, both at Bay Hill and throughout his career as a professional.

In the 14 seasons he's be eligible for official rankings since he joined the PGA TOUR in 1997, he's finished first in par-5 scoring average 10 times (1997-2003, 2005, 2006, 2009). He's also finished second twice (2007, 2013), T5 once (2002) and T6 once (2012).

In his 15 starts as a pro at the API -- including all three times Bay Hill played as a par 70 (2007-2009), he's 113 strokes under par on the par 5s. The breaks down to six eagles, 116 birdies, 83 pars, seven bogeys and four doubles in 216 total occurrences.

 He's gone as low as 14-under on the par 5s in a single week (2000) and has won on five of the six occasions (all during par-72 years) he hit double digits under par in one event. The exception was his first appearance as a pro in 1997 when he scored bogey-free 11-under but settled for a share of ninth place on the leaderboard.

Sergio Garcia has put together a remarkable run of top-25s since his win last August at the Wyndham Championship. (Cannon/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

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Tiger Woods is a must-start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in every fantasy format that rewards success, but one-and-doners are still required to pause and review the options.

If Woods is still available to you and your rules don't exclude burning the defending champion, he makes it awfully difficult to invest elsewhere regardless who you have No. 2 on your board. Not only did he end a two-year winless drought on the PGA TOUR at Bay Hill last year, but he did so in convincing fashion, going five strokes lower than runner-up Graeme McDowell.

Woods either led or co-led the field in greens in regulation, par breakers, par-4 scoring average, par-5 scoring average and scrambling. He also finished fourth in strokes gained-putting. Two weeks ago, he picked off his fifth victory in the last 12 months with a wire-to-wire, two-stroke triumph at the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship. His splits throughout his bag at TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral were ridiculous.

To suggest that you should holster him for the Masters, World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational of the FedExCup Playoffs would be reckless on my part. This is why I'm exhausting my lone self-imposed mulligan on using defending champions and burning him at Bay Hill. Woods' remaining sites for title defenses this season are the Memorial and AT&T National. If I were limiting my options to use my mulligan to events only he has won, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is the runaway choice.

The primary argument against not playing Woods is that this week's purse is just $6.2 million. One-and-doners expect nothing short of a victory when they plug him in, but no second-place paycheck matches the $1,116,000 awarded to the winner at Bay Hill.

If you can't burn him or you're committed to him later, Lake Nona's McDowell is a suitable replacement. Not only is he seeking to climb that final spot on the leaderboard at Bay Hill but he's also red-hot upon arrival.

Another Orlando resident, Ian Poulter, earns an endorsement as well. In his last two trips, he's finished T12 and solo third. What's more, he's still growing on one-and-doners that think of him only as a weapon for match-play events, so you'd likely have little company if you circled the Englishman.

Justin Rose is back in action after a one-week break and immediately returns to our focus at Bay Hill thanks to a T3 in 2011 and a T15 last year, not to mention a hearty T4-T8 start to the Florida Swing. Rest assured that you'll read more about him in this feature later in the season if you don't hop aboard this week.

And just like last week, both Jim Furyk and Sergio Garcia command our attention at Bay Hill, and again, it's but one of many venues where each makes sense. That said, the argument for leaning on Garcia is stronger because he can't miss having posted 13 consecutive top-25s since his win at Sedgefield last August.

SUMMARY
Last week: Jim Furyk; T7; $148,892,85
Overall Record: 10-for-12
Earnings: $2,454,977.85
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s: 7
Top 25s: 9
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0

Graeme McDowell finished in the top 15 at Trump Doral in 2010 and 2012. (Ehrmann/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

All of the reservations you've had about burning a big name in a stroke-play event this season can be discarded this week. At the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship, your patience is rewarded.

Fifteen percent in the field of 65 are guaranteed a top 10 in a no-cut format with a mammoth purse of $8.75 million. While some guys will be hoping to find their game, others will be expecting to capitalize on current form.

Justin Rose is the defending champion. He's No. 3 in my Power Rankings so I'm on board, but I try not to select last year's winner in any event. One-and-dones are simple games, so I don't mind the strategic challenge. However, I do allow myself one mulligan to that self-inflicted provision. I was tempted to use it this week as Rose continues to tear it up everywhere he plays.

Perhaps if I wasn't as intrigued by Graeme McDowell (No. 5 in my Power Rankings), who is my pick to tame TPC Blue Monster at Trump Doral, I'd plug Rose in. G-Mac is one of the world's most accurate drivers, he's had success on multiple occasions at Doral and he's playing some of his most efficient golf of his career right now.

Matt Kuchar and Charl Schwartzel sit a respective first and second in my Power Rankings, but I've already exhausted both as one-and-dones. If I hadn't, either would bump McDowell from the top spot among my options. Hunter Mahan is No. 4 and available to me, but this tournament barely ranks inside his top 15 in total earnings.

As for the Puerto Rico Open, I'll adhere to the "Keep It Simple, Silly" method. While course experience isn't a prerequisite for success at Trump International Golf Club-Puerto Rico, it's still a valuable resource. That's why I'm inserting Kevin Stadler as my one-and-done. He's survived all five cuts in the history of the tournament, two going for top 10s, another two for top 20s.

SUMMARY

Last week: Charl Schwartzel; T9; $156,000.00
Overall Record: 7-for-9
Earnings: $1,881,760.00
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 3
Top 10s: 5
Top 25s: 7
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

WEBB SIMPSON

After a so-so start to the West Coast Swing, he tied for sixth in the Northern Trust Open at Riviera, and then went 3-1 at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship. Faded to a T35 with a closing 77 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship in his debut last year. Ranked T6 for the week in par breakers (1 eagle, 19 birdies). Currently ninth on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, sixth in scrambling and 25th in adjusted scoring.

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

In my Power Rankings on Monday, I cited that Rory McIlroy scored bogey-free 5-under on the two par 5s at PGA National en route to his title at last year's The Honda Classic. I then added that capitalizing on the holes was integral for success this week.

It's time to dig into that a little more.

Since The Honda Classic moved to PGA National in 2007, only two champions have finished inside the top 20 in par-5 scoring average during the week they won. Before McIlroy ranked T7 in 2012, Camilo Villegas co-led his field in 2010. Villegas also placed T1 in par-4 scoring average. Of the six editions, the Colombian holds the marks for lowest aggregate (13-under 267) and widest margin of victory (five strokes).

The total of the other five margins of victory equals five. Therefore, from a statistical standpoint, Villegas is the outlier. (Now three years removed, we can appreciate even more what he accomplished that week after making an early-week trek to his homeland to help kick-start the inaugural Colombia Championship on the Web.com Tour.)

As it relates to scoring on the par 3s and 4s, all six victors ranked inside the top 10 in par-4 scoring average. Four placed inside the top five in par-3 scoring average; Mark Wilson ranked T27 in 2007 while Villegas was T14 in 2010. These splits make sense since most of the winners weren't picking up many strokes against the field on par 5s, but they always post the low aggregate.

Now, to the variable of bogey avoidance also mentioned in the Power Rankings, it's a goal that requires proficiency through most of the bag at PGA National. Getting up and down is imperative, but guys can take the pressure off scrambling by hitting their greens in regulation and limiting three-putts. It sounds elementary but the host course tests the quality of one's execution as well as any track on the PGA TOUR.

All but Rory Sabbatini (2011; T21) ranked inside the top 10 in GIR, but the South African led his field in scrambling. McIlroy then led his field in saving par during Sabbatini's title defense. All six winners ranked inside the top 25 in strokes gained-putting.

A round can unravel quickly, particularly as guys navigate The Bear Trap -- McIlroy was bogey-free 3-under on holes 15, 16 and 17 last year -- so a confident short game and greenside touch will reveal who came to grind.

Ernie Els' record at PGA National puts him on the short list for The Honda Classic. (Ehrmann/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, Fantasy Insider

Now that you've survived the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship by respecting the format which in turn preventing you from burning a big name -- right?! -- it's time to revisit the stable of options for this week's The Honda Classic.

What's interesting and potentially pivotal is that there isn't a frontrunner of a candidate. Twelve of the top 20 all-time money leaders at this event (including pre-2007 when PGA National first hosted) are in the field, but I quickly whittled the list of viable options down to four -- Y.E. Yang (second all-time), Ernie Els (11th), Rory McIlroy (12th) and Justin Rose (17th).

Since many one-and-dones exclude defending champions as an option, omit McIlroy. Until he flashes his usual form, he'll remain holstered anyway. Also consider that the purse is only $6 million, not enough to roll the dice on the Ulsterman. Yang is a former winner (2009) and runner-up (2011), but I'd limit him to a two-man format at best.

Els' five consecutive cuts made at PGA National began with a title in 2008. He makes some sense this week if he wasn't already on your short lists for the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational or the U.S. Open. Plugging him in somewhere on the Florida Swing is almost a no-brainer. Rose has value at quite a few venues, not the least of which is this week's host course where he's posted top fives in his last two visits, finishing at 7-under in each.

Graeme McDowell is another strong choice thanks to top 10s in each of the last two editions. He's also coming off a good showing at Dove Mountain. Last year, I burned Lee Westwood who cooperated with a solo fourth for his second top 10 in three appearances.
 
Yet, while various angles on the aforementioned tug at me, I'm going to ride Charl Schwartzel, who sits No. 1 in my Power Rankings. He's finished T14 (2011) and T5 (2012) in his starts at PGA National and has an active streak of seven consecutive top fives in stroke-play events, including two thrashing victories in December.

SUMMARY

Last week: Ian Poulter; 4th; $500,000.00
Overall Record: 6-for-8
Earnings: $1,725,760.00
Wins: 0
Top 5s: 3
Top 10s: 4
Top 25s: 6
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

MARTIN KAYMER

First-timer at PGA National. When he stated that his entire career may have been riding on the putt that he converted to clinch the Ryder Cup for the Europeans at Medinah last fall, you couldn't blame him despite the hyperbole. Now that we're several months removed, there's evidence that it very well may have been a turning point as well. In 11 starts since, he's logged seven top-11 finishes (all in his last nine events), a grouping that includes a victory at the 12-man Nedbank Golf Challenge.

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

Your plan of attack for the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship should consist of equal parts defense and aggression. Just make sure they are in that order.

Since there is no cut, you are guaranteed a payday, and that introduces non-members into the equation.

If you make the decision to play it safe and burn a non-member, focus on a bracket that seems navigable. All four have formidable challenges, but the Hogan bracket is particularly deep, so it wouldn't be wise to lean on Richie Ramsay, Marcus Fraser, Thongchai Jaidee or Hiroyuki Fujita.

Jamie Donaldson and Thorbjorn Olesen offer one of the more intriguing matchups in the Snead bracket, but one will be gone after one round.

A resurgent Henrik Stenson (Snead bracket), who won this event at The Gallery at Dove Mountain in 2007, or fellow Swede Peter Hanson (Player bracket), who went 3-1 last year, are solid options (and both are PGA TOUR members).

Despite the appeal of a non-member, however, I can't deviate from 2012 Ryder Cup hero and 2010 WGC-Accenture champ, Ian Poulter. He loves match play and you won't miss him later. Even though he lost in the first round each of the last two years, you might as well roll the dice on a guy that offers more hope than most. Best of all, he's in the half of the Snead bracket that doesn't boast the same kind of firepower as any other half-bracket.

SUMMARY

Last week: Jimmy Walker; T16; $99,000.00

Overall Record: 5-for-7

Earnings: $1,225,760.00

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 2

Top 10s: 3

Top 25s: 5

Missed Cuts: 2

Withdrawals: 0

Disqualifications: 0

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

BO VAN PELT

Didn't crack the Power Rankings because he failed to post a top 15 in any of his first three starts this season. That's a drought that he experienced just once all of last year. However, he's recorded four top 15s in his last eight appearances at Riviera Country Club. Last year's T8 was his best finish in 11 career starts. Not surprisingly, the birdie machine led last year's field in par breakers (one eagle; 19 birdies).

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

Because the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am is contested over three courses, some of the more detailed data collected at host sites isn't at their complements. This is the case at both Spyglass Hill and the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The many parallels that can be drawn between champions comes with that caveat, but for the purposes of this entry, we'll focus -- with one exception -- only on statistics gathered at all three tracks. We'll also limit our range to 2010-2012 since it reflects the return of MPCC and, thus, the current rotation of courses.

As you'd expect from a tournament that doesn't qualify as a shootout, hitting greens in regulation has been valuable to each of the last three winners. Both Dustin Johnson (2010) and D.A. Points (2011) logged 50 greens en route to their titles. Johnson ranked third during his week, while Points placed 17th in the category. Phil Mickelson (2012) also ranked third, but the lefty hit 54 greens.

And that's about where the cursory comparison ends. For example, Johnson and Points ranked inside the top 11 in fairways hit, but Mickelson was 62nd. Meanwhile, Mickelson placed fourth in proximity to the hole, but Johnson (33rd) and Points (25th) didn't fare as well.

When guys hit a fair percentage of greens in regulation, scrambling isn't as important in a broad sense, but it's worth mentioning that Mickelson got up and down 14 of 18 times, tied for second-best in 2012. Again, Johnson (T57) and Points (T45) didn't save par as well.

Mickelson led his field in strokes gained-putting and Points ranked fifth, but Johnson didn't make noise there either, sitting 58th with a surprisingly inefficient split of -0.798. Now, strokes gained-putting is calculated only at Pebble Beach, so the more relevant putting stat is putts per GIR.

Lo and behold, all three champions ranked inside the top 10 in putts per GIR. In fact, Points led his field. (Johnson ranked seventh; Mickelson was T10.) Therefore, like last week's objective in the Valley of the Sun, hitting greens and making putts would qualify as the goal this week as well. It sound simple enough for any tournament, but as we've already witnessed earlier this year and certainly will again later, identity varies course to course, event to event.

Finally, just to take a peek at individual scoring on each course in play this week, of this trio, Johnson has signed for the lowest number on both Pebble and Spyglass, recording a 64 at each. Points and Mickelson failed to break 70 on both! However, DJ's 68 at MPCC is the highest among the threesome. Points netted a 63 at MPCC in his opening round while Mickelson carded a 65 there in his second round.