April 22 2013

4:44 PM

Wild Card: Zurich Classic

Nick Watney's big-hitting game has always been a good fit for TPC Louisiana. (Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

NICK WATNEY

Will turn 32 years of age the same day as the opening round. The 2007 champion at TPC Louisiana has fared no better than a T20 in four return trips, but he's coming off a T13 at the Masters that ended a drought of four starts without a top 25. Currently 23rd on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, but it's an improvement in putting that lands him here. He ranked as low as 149th at one point during the Florida Swing, but has since climbed back to 93rd with three consecutive positive performances. For a guy arguably best known as a streaky putter, his latest progress could be a harbinger.


April 17 2013

11:00 AM

One-and-done: RBC Heritage

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

The RBC Heritage presents an interesting strategic challenge to one-and-doners this week. Its purse is $5.8 million, not the cool $6 million that many a veteran gamer demand to burn a top-shelf talent. However, it's not the purse that detracts me from guys like Brandt Snedeker, Jim Furyk and Luke Donald. It's the converging trends of two-time champion Boo Weekley.

Since going back-to-back in 2007 and 2008, he's 4-for-4 at Harbour Town with three top 15s, including a T6 last year. More recently, he capped off a spirited run to start the Fall Series with a solo second at the Tampa Bay Championship. And he's riding a consecutive cuts made streak of eight, longest in three-and-a-half seasons.

Harbour Town and Weekley are synonymous with ball-striking, which helps explain the affable Floridian's success. The 39-year-old former Ryder Cupper ranks seventh in total driving and ninth in greens in regulation. The 3,700-square foot greens not only enhance his pinpoint irons, they help hide his weakness as a putter. With that series of variables in his favor, I'm sold.

Loyal readers know that it's somewhat outside my philosophy to deviate from the elite in a one-and-done format. After all, games that include all 40 tournaments are unlikely to consider going off the board from what the chalk suggests because, well, there are <i>only</i> 40 tournaments. If you're in this crowd, read on.

Of the top nine in all-time earnings at the RBC Heritage, only Davis Love III (No. 1) is absent this week. He's still recovering from a neck injury from which he hopes to return very soon. Furyk sits second on the list. I'd plug him in this week but I already burned him earlier in the season (T7, Tampa Bay). There are number of sites where he'll qualify as a finalist, but Harbour Town may be the most logical as compared to your other options.

Stewart Cink (4th), Aaron Baddeley (5th) and Brian Gay (9th) are suitable possibilities in two-man one-and-dones, but that's only if you're leading with Furyk. Carl Pettersson (6th) is the defending champion, which excludes him from formats like the one to which I prescribe. Even so, his form isn't where it needs to be to warrant the investment.

Donald (7th) and Ernie Els (8th) have not won the RBC Heritage, but I'm saving both for later. Not sure when yet, but Donald will find a home without question. I wouldn't mind if he turned a corner, too. Despite his track record at Harbour Town, the sub-$6 million purse is the clincher for why I'm holstering him. I had Els circled for a spot on the Florida Swing, but he didn't resonate louder than all of my other choices that converted anyway.

Finally, Snedeker proved at the Masters that his strained oblique is no longer an issue. He's a former champion at Harbour Town (2011) and sits 11th in all-time earnings with a 5-for-7 record. But, like Donald, Snedeker will emerge as a more potent threat with a larger purse later on.

SUMMARY

Last week: Phil Mickelson; T54; $18,320,00

Overall Record: 14-for-16

Earnings: $3,819,731.18

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 5

Top 10s: 9

Top 25s: 12

Missed Cuts: 2

Withdrawals: 0

Disqualifications: 0

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April 16 2013

5:21 PM

Make your picks: RBC Heritage

Our experts have made their picks for the RBC Heritage and now it's time for you to make yours.

Who do you think will be victorious this week at Harbour Town? Share your picks in the comments sections below.

Don't forget, there's still time for you to sign up to compete with our experts at PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Golf game. Click here to sign up for PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Golf and join the group PGATOUR.COM EXPERTS to go head-to-head with our panel each week.

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April 15 2013

4:26 PM

Wild Card: RBC Heritage

Aaron Baddeley hits his approach on the way to victory at Harbour Town in 2006. (Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

AARON BADDELEY

Had the week off following a T15 at the Valero Texas Open, his third top-15 finish of the season among seven cuts made in nine starts. Ranked fourth in strokes gained-putting at TPC San Antonio. Also sits fourth on TOUR in the stat for the year as well as 41st in scrambling and 59th in adjusted scoring. After winning the RBC Heritage in 2006, he added five consecutive top 25s at Harbour Town before missing last year's cut by four strokes.


April 10 2013

11:34 AM

One and done: The Masters

Phil Mickelson is gunning for a fourth Green Jacket this week. (Redington/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider


In terms of options, the Masters is as simple as it gets for one-and-doners. Who ya got? Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson?

Really, there is no alternative strategy unless you have no choice. If you've burned both and remain undecided this week, email your short list to me at FantasyInsider@charter.net. As for why my list stops at two, behold these staggering numbers:

- Woods is the all-time earnings leaders at the Masters with $6,853,473. That's just $55,631 (or 0.81 percent) more than Mickelson in second place.

- With $6,797,842, Mickelson has earned 2.8 times that of Angel Cabrera in third ($2,427,524).

- On its own, Mickelson's $4,370,318 margin over Cabrera would rank highest all-time in 27 of the 40 tournaments on the PGA TOUR schedule. Of the other 13 (including the Masters), Woods sits atop 11. Ernie Els is No. 1 at The Open Championship, but Woods' haul in that major also exceeds Mickelson's margin over Cabrera. The only event in which Woods doesn't figure in this comparison is the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am led by Mickelson.

- As a professional at the Masters, Woods is 16-for-16 with an average paycheck of $428,342.06. In his 18 cuts made in 19 starts as a pro, Mickelson has averaged $377,658.11 per bank deposit.

I exhausted Woods (and my lone self-imposed mulligan for a defending champion) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He won by two strokes. So, despite Mickelson's acknowledgement that he's nervous and his never-dull approach at equipment this week, I'm plugging in the three-time Masters champ as my one-and-done selection this week.

Loyal readers will be quick to question my usual strategy to save the left-hander for the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola, but I'm off to a great start and that tournament guarantees a six-figure payday. Incidentally, my goal is to hit $10 million in earnings.

For those following my lead and yet to burn Jim Furyk, it's worth noting that Furyk's career earnings at the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola also exceeds Mickelson's gap over Cabrera at the Masters, so consider saving Furyk for the finale. Of course, the potential pitfall to that plan is that Furyk won't advance all the way to East Lake. Still, it's a minimal risk given he's played in all but one TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola since the FedExCup was introduced in 2007.

As for the Masters, the choices are obvious. And purely from the standpoint or entertainment, why wouldn't you want to ride either Woods or Mickelson at Augusta National?

SUMMARY
Last week
: Fredrik Jacobson; T15; $93,000,00
Overall Record: 13-for-15
Earnings: $3,801,411.18
Wins: 1
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 9
Top 25s: 12
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0


 


April 8 2013

4:49 PM

Wild card: Masters

Johnson currently ranks sixth in FedExCup standings. (Chris Condon/PGA TOUR)

Each week, PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton offers his Power Rankings for the weekly TOUR event as well as his Sleeper picks. But what about the players who don't make the Power Rankings but who can't really be considered Sleepers? Bolton will make one "wild card" selection from the large group of players who fall into that middle range but might rise up to claim the title. This week's pick is ...

DUSTIN JOHNSON

It seems impossible that he wouldn't crack a Power Rankings that goes 20 deep, but this is the reality in a field that boasts several that have enjoyed more consistent seasons thus far on top of success at the Masters. This is DJ's fourth appearance at Augusta National. (He withdrew early last year due to a back injury.) In 12 rounds, he's broken 70 just once and hasn't finished better than T30 in his debut in 2009. After opening this year with a victory at Kapalua, he went six straight starts without a top 30, but reversed his fortune with a T12 at the WGC-Cadillac and a T4 in Houston. Ranks 33rd on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, 32nd in strokes gained-putting and 21st in adjusted scoring.

POWER RANKINGS: To read Bolton's top 20 for Augusta National, click here.


April 3 2013

10:44 AM

One-and-done: Valero Texas Open

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

MORE FANTASY HELP: Fantasy Insider | Power Rankings | Sleeper Picks | Sign up and play

On the record for targeting top 10s in every event, I've been criticized for settling for too little. What's overlooked is that victories and top fives are neatly tucked in that same bubble. In fact, more than half of my top 10s this season have been top fives. It's a sound strategy, and it's the kind of philosophy that will help you keep it simple at the Valero Texas Open.

Case in point, if you haven't burned Matt Kuchar, plug him in. Sure, there may be better spots later, but that angle isn't as relevant at TPC San Antonio, a treacherous piece of property that's still relatively new to many in the field. Kuchar has been motoring along wonderfully and he has a T13 under his belt here last year. The purse is $6.2 million. Not too shabby.

When you gather all of the most important factors in making your decision this week, Kuchar stands atop most lists. But even if you're hesitant, consider what happened to me earlier this season.

I exhausted Kuchar at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, electing to holster Dustin Johnson for a more sensible site. Kuchar tied for ninth in the 30-man field but DJ came out on top. Then when I leaned on Johnson at Pebble Beach -- an obvious selection given his series of successes there -- I promptly rued my decision not to use him in the season opener. Johnson missed the cut for $0.00.

Time will tell how poor my timing was with Johnson, but the point is clear and I learned from it. Instead of waiting to use Tiger Woods for the Masters or another more lucrative event, he paid dividends at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a victory. No regrets.

Now, if you, like me, no longer have Kuchar at your disposal, then Fredrik Jacobson is a suitable alternative. Arguably just outside the range of obvious investments in a one-and-done, the Swede makes sense given his recent form (five straight top 25s), history at TPC San Antonio (2nd; T5; T18) and a confidence booster of having just qualified for the Masters via the Official World Golf Ranking. He's also rested having taken the last three weeks off.

Jacobson is my choice for the Valero Texas Open. And yes, I'll settle for a top 10.

SUMMARY
Last week: Keegan Bradley; T10; $137,433,33
Overall Record: 12-for-14
Earnings: $3,708,411.18
Wins: 1
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 9
Top 25s: 11
Missed Cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0


April 2 2013

2:07 PM

Make your picks: Valero Texas Open

Our experts have made their picks for the Valero Texas Open and now it's time for you to make yours.

Who do you think will be victorious this week at TPC San Antonio? Share your picks in the comments sections below.

Don't forget, there's still time for you to sign up to compete with our experts at PGATOUR.COM's Fantasy Golf game. Click here to sign up for PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Golf and join the group PGATOUR.COM EXPERTS to go head-to-head with our panel each week.

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March 27 2013

5:41 PM

The Stats Suggest: Shell Houston

Adam Scott celebrates his win at Redstone in 2007. (Cox/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

MORE FANTASY HELP: Fantasy Insider | Power Rankings | Sleeper Picks | One and done advice

The next time champions of the Shell Houston Open have something in common, it will be the first time. OK, that's not entirely accurate, it only seems that way.

Redstone's Tournament Course has served up a formidable mixed bag of winners in its first seven years as host. Even strokes gained-putting, which has rapidly risen as a highly respected measuring stick for success, doesn't quite live up to its billing. Five of the seven winners finished inside the top 10 in the stat but none cracked the top three and two placed well back -- Adam Scott (17th, 2007) and Phil Mickelson (20th, 2011).

This isn't to say that putting isn't important, of course, but despite a Hall of Famer, Ryder Cuppers and Presidents Cuppers hoisting the hardware, it's one of the many angles that pushes a theory that the Shell Houston Open is, well, wide open.

When comparing the seven champions in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, strokes gained-putting and scrambling, several seemingly random facts are revealed involving those that finished inside the top 10 in those categories. To wit:

None ranked higher than Stuart Appleby in fairways hit in 2006, and he was just T25. The poster boy for getting away with wayward tee shots is Anthony Kim in 2010. He ranked last of 72 en route to the title.

Kim also ranked T50 in greens in regulation during his victory but still placed T5 in par breakers and T5 in bogey avoidance. Talk about a yeoman's job of maximizing on one's opportunities.

Of the four that cracked the top 10 in distance, none shared another top 10 across the board. Mickelson, who ranked sixth in distance in 2011, finished outside the top 10 in all of the other main stats, yet rode a red-hot second half of the tournament, rolling in 18 birdies on his last 36 holes to win by three and record a tournament-record, 20-under 268.

None of the seven winners ranked inside the top 10 in proximity to the hole, a fact in and of itself that isn't earth-shattering in any given week, but four placed outside the top 40 during their victories on a course that annually ranks among the most difficult in one-putt percentage. The spin here is that guys are rewarded for getting aggressive but they are penalized accordingly when they miss. Sound familiar? Redstone makes no secret that it wants to set up like Augusta National and this helps prove it.

When you boil it down, Redstone favors going low, and that introduces a number of styles of play. Contrary to the introduction above, all seven winners have done just this. Until Mickelson checked in at T10 in par breakers last year, all of the winners had finished inside the top five in par breakers.

But despite Redstone's par of 72 that includes the usual set of four par 5s, the par 4s play easier than the par 3s and par 5s every year. All but Mickelson (T23) finished inside the top 10 in par-4 scoring average while only four champions placed inside the top 10 in par-5 scoring average.


11:32 AM

One-and-done: Shell Houston Open

Keegan Bradley's confidence is high heading to Redstone. (Little/Getty Images)

By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Insider

MORE FANTASY HELP: Fantasy Insider | Power Rankings | Sleeper Picks | Sign up and play

Sometimes the best decisions are the easiest decisions. That's the case at this week's Shell Houston Open. From the standpoint of the one-and-doners, there is a but a small handful of viable options this week, most of which can be dismissed immediately.

Brandt Snedeker is still in the process of shedding rust. Rory McIlroy is, too, in a way, but you'll plug him in later for a larger purse anyway. Steve Stricker is your go-to at the John Deere Classic, although he's a smart pick in two-and-dones if you're feeling frisky.

Hunter Mahan is the defending champion, so some formats will exclude him. Even if yours doesn't, he's a wise hold for the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola if you're burning Phil Mickelson elsewhere. Speaking of the lefthander, you know you'll have a plethora of options down the road beginning with the Masters in two weeks. Holster for now.

Other notables like Lee Westwood, Bill Haas and Dustin Johnson set up like square pegs in a round hole at Redstone's Tournament Course, so don't force the issue.

That leaves my pick, Keegan Bradley. Even though he posted a season-best T3 at Bay Hill last week, he said that he feels like he's playing better than his scorecard illustrates. That speaks to a high level of confidence. He also offers splits throughout his bag to support an investment. The kicker is that he tied for fourth at Redstone last year.

Two-man one-and-dones that like to inject a second-tier type of talent relative to the chalk are wise to consider the likes of Chris Kirk, Jimmy Walker, John Senden, Bob Estes and Ben Curtis.

SUMMARY
Last week:
Tiger Woods; WIN; $1,116,000,00
Overall record: 11-for-13
Earnings: $3,570,977.85
Wins: 1
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 8
Top 25s: 10
Missed cuts: 2
Withdrawals: 0
Disqualifications: 0