By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: HP Byron Nelson | Sign up for fantasy
Like the decline of U.S. mail following the holidays, emails into FantasyInsider@charter.net were scant after last week's PLAYERS, at least for relevant submissions in this space. That's quite all right, however, as it offers great timing for gamers in full-season formats to plan ahead.
Unless you play a one-and-done that requires you to plug in an entire year's worth of what are basically guesses in early January, you're always on the hunt for value. The PGA TOUR season is long and it requires patience. Sometimes you just need to let your guys play golf.
Yet there are bubbles throughout the year when pouncing on certain guys makes more sense than during your draft. The first occurs at the end of the West Coast Swing when the Nationwide Tour and q-school graduates reshuffle for the first time. The second bubble falls in line with the second reshuffle following the Shell Houston Open. We are now entering the third bubble.
The top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking following this weekend's slate of tournaments worldwide will qualify for the field at the U.S. Open. The top 50 will earn exemptions into the British Open. And those are just the cracks in the dam for what will be a deluge of exemptions distributed by both majors in the coming weeks.
Numerous valuable fantasy investments will emerge at the qualifiers. U.S. Open sectional qualifying is contested on May 21 in Japan, May 28 in England and June 4 in the United States. Of the 72 that survived the cut at Congressional in last year's U.S. Open, 33 gained entry into the tournament through sectional qualifying. (Four started in local qualifying, including 2012 rookie Bud Cauley.)
The remaining International Final Qualifying sites for the British Open are held on May 21 in the U.S. and June 25 in Europe. Twelve berths at Local Final Qualifying on July 3 will also earn exemptions. Last year, 10 of the 71 in the field at Royal St. George's gained entry via an IFQ. Opening-round co-leader, Tom Lewis, was the lone representative of the dozen LFQers.
If you haven't already bookmarked my list of all golfers exempt into the four majors, the three World Golf Championships and THE PLAYERS, you can find it by clicking here. Scroll to the bottom to review all remaining qualifying criteria for the events that on tap in the coming months.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: THE PLAYERS Championship | Sign up for fantasy
Big week. Busy week.
Hey, Rob. The PLAYERS' picks are hard, my friend. Just need your best guess between two players: Phil Mickelson or Sergio Garcia? Best regards, Federico in Guatemala.
Garcia and Mickelson sit 1-2, respectively, on the all-time money list at TPC Sawgrass. While neither should be ruled out anywhere he competes, Garcia most definitely deserves the edge. He's thoroughly embraced TPC Sawgrass, which is a dynamic you must grab without reservation.
Tough one this week with Bubba Watson and Charl Schwartzel sitting it out. I need four to start out of the following: Justin Rose, Jason Dufner, Nick Watney, Robert Garrigus, John Huh, Bud Cauley. Rose and Duffs are no-brainers. Watney's top 10 is encouraging. Garrigus has been solid, and who knows how the rooks will do. What say you? Thanks. -- Erik
I say that you don't need my help. Rose, Dufner, Watney and Garrigus makes the most sense.
Group of players I'm considering and would like your thoughts since the other three are set (Lee Westwood, Jason Day, Bud Cauley): Graham DeLaet, Chris Couch, Josh Teater, Colt Knost, Rod Pampling. -- Joey
I like experience at TPC Sawgrass, so that eliminates DeLaet and Knost as first-timers, and Teater is 0-for-1. Pampling has made the cut in half of his eight starts in this tournament, but he hasn't posted a top 25. Couch is just 2-for-3 but he shared 17th place in 2010. Yet, because he has struggled this season, Pampling gets my vote thanks to three top 25s in 2012 and to a general return to old form over the last 14 months.
Hey Rob. Which two do you like in a one-and-done pool the best: Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Ben Crane, Bud Cauley? I'm not sure if it makes sense to take two big names for this event or not. On the flip, it is the biggest pot of the year so maybe the gamble is worth it? I've looked at rankings and websites and don't see Crane anywhere but he has a pretty good history here and played pretty well last week. What do you think? -- Justin
While Westwood and Donald are worthy of dispensations from my rule not to burn the elite this week, the combo of Westwood and Crane is tasty. The value of holstering Donald for later only inflates the argument for Crane, who is the only golfer in the field with three top 10s since the course renovations took effect in 2007. For more on him and much more, click here for my fantasy preview.
Have you heard anything new on Dustin Johnson? I'm thinking of dumping him for Matt Kuchar for the rest of the season. -- Michael
Johnson issued a statement on May 3 indicating that he wouldn't return until he was "100 percent ready." On Tuesday of this week, he wrote the following on Twitter: "So - guess who's out on the course getting some practice in...THIS GUY!! I feel gooooood!" Michael, if you can't afford to be patient, I'd endorse spelling DJ with Kuchar. However, if you're in a format that uses earnings as a measurement for your scoring system, pull the trigger immediately. THE PLAYERS is the richest event of the year.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: Wells Fargo Championship | Sign up for fantasy
With so many of the world's elite competing at this week's Wells Fargo Championship, one-and-dones are faced with a challenge. Do they burn a high-profile guy or remain confined to the next tier of talent? As it is with most things fantasy golf, it depends.
Here are a few related emails that poured in this week:
I am looking at Furyk, Z. Johnson, or Fowler for my one-and-done. Which of those three would you take? We have Phil, Rory [McIlroy], Mahan, Westwood, and [Keegan] Bradley available, too. I am just thinking that this week is not the week to use any of them. What do you think about that strategy? Thanks again. -- Craig
I have narrowed it down to four: Zach, BVP, Tringale and Huh. Your thoughts? Thanks. -- Don
I'm liking Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson, Bo Van Pelt and Cameron Tringale this week, thoughts? Thanks again for your help. -- Mike
First, we need to take a look at the purse. It's a fruitful $6.5 million. Therefore, no one should be eliminated on prize money alone.
Next, we'll take a peek at the all-time money list at Quail Hollow to help gauge value. Lucas Glover has the edge over Jim Furyk by nearly $12,500. Glover is a few bucks shy of $2.25 million. Vijay Singh sits in third at $2.087 million. Phil Mickelson ($1.978M) and Tiger Woods ($1.898M) round out the top five. (Rory McIlroy sits in 10th with $1.17M, all courtesy of his breakthrough victory in 2010.)
Glover, who defends his title this week, is still working his way back into form following his knee injury, so he's not a recommended option. Furyk has been rolling, so we'll start our short list with him. Singh is back in action after a trip to Germany for therapy, and he's without a top 10 in nine starts this year, so I wouldn't rank him ahead of Furyk.
That leaves Mickelson and Woods. I slotted the lefty No. 1 in my Power Rankings, but I always like reserving him until the FedExCup Playoffs. I stated my case on Woods in this space a few weeks ago, and then burned him at the Masters. Even if he's still available to you, there are better options than Quail Hollow, so hold off.
Back to the emails, you'll note that Zach Johnson is a popular choice, and I endorse him. Add him to the short list.
Rickie Fowler is still grinding out a season filled with challenges. While I'm not fading him, he'd sit behind Furyk and ZJ.
Hunter Mahan is a fine option but I like him later in several places.
In my fantasy preview, I laid out why I'm fading Lee Westwood, so please take a read if you already haven't.
It's hard not to lean on Keegan Bradley just about anywhere, and that's a ringing endorsement given he's a PGA TOUR sophomore, but I prefer more experience at Quail Hollow.
Bo Van Pelt will be more useful in a field that's not as deep as the compilation at Quail Hollow. Certainly, he's one of the TOUR's most consistently successful, and the safe choice this week if there is such a thing, but I'll holster him for another event.
A strong argument could be made for Cameron Tringale. He's after his fourth consecutive top 10 this week. However, like Bradley, I want more experience on this track in my one-and-done.
John Huh's strength is tee-to-green, which doesn't matter as much as putting this week. While he's shattering all kinds of stereotypes for rookies, I'm still sitting on Furyk and ZJ.
So, with a short list at two deep, let's take a look at how each breaks down.
Furyk has four top 10s including a win and a second at Quail Hollow. He's also recorded a T11 and a T24.
Meanwhile, after missing the cut in his first three trips, Johnson is 5-for-5 with three top 25s, including a T6 last year. He also revealed last week that his wife is pregnant with the couple's third child. He's likely known about the imminent birth for a while, which could help explain his strong start to 2012. Things might change when he evolves from man-to-man defense to the zone in "mid-fall" when he's cited the baby's due date, but we can ride him now without worry.
Furyk's history and current form tilt the balance his way.
Of course, I'm all in on Rory McIlroy, who's arguably the hottest golfer on the planet in the last eight months. Since he finished T40 at the Masters, I'm likely in the minority of one-and-doners that are investing this week. And that's exactly the kind of matchup you want in the format.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: Zurich Classic of New Orleans | Sign up for fantasy
Throughout my tenure as the Fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM, there's been a bit of a misconception that because of the connection, I'm privy to the reasons why golfers withdraw between the commitment deadline and their tee times in the first round. To wit, here's an email that arrived on Tuesday afternoon:
What happened to [Brandt] Snedeker? He was on [the] list on Monday; on Tuesday he is gone. -- Larry
Unless there is published or broadcast information offering an explanation, I'm left to speculate as much as you. Some readers aren't aware that the touring pros are independent contractors allowed to set their own schedules, so that education alone serves as an acceptable response.
This is the second time this season that Snedeker has withdrawn early in the week of a tournament to which he committed. He also pulled out of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. (He returned the following week at the Northern Trust Open.)
Unless there is documented information to support that a guy is banged up or ill (e.g. Anthony Kim, Boo Weekley), I'll chalk up early WDs to reasons that don't concern us. Fantasy golf is peppered with all kinds of learning curves. Unlike team sports when an athlete is scratched due to injury, you can't draw the same parallel in golf.
Whenever there is information available on a medical or personal issue and it has relevance, I will usually share it in one of my features. Worst case, you'll find it in "Medic!" in my fantasy preview.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: RBC Heritage | Sign up for fantasy
No surprise that the Mailbag was light after the season's first major. I get the feeling that gamers need to decompress as much as the golfers! But not everyone is easing off the pedal.
Here's an email inquiring about the playability of three seasoned touring pros that went uncovered in all of my features this week.
For a quick pick for the Heritage, to whom would you give the nod out of the following: Lucas Glover, Kevin Streelman or Trevor Immelman? Based on Immelman's play of late, I'm inclined to go with him over the other two. Streelman hasn't played the Heritage much. Glover's accuracy off the tee is still among the best out there, but I don't think he has gotten his legs under him yet this year. -- Dan
Even though Streelman has the only two top 10s of the trio this season, I can't help but agree with Dan, and that's aside from the fact that Immelman has survived the cut in each of the last three years at Harbour Town.
The South African withdrew early from the Transitions Championship four weeks ago due to a sore wrist that just doesn't want to stop nagging him, but he recovered quickly to share 11th place the next week at Bay Hill. He also rebounded from an opening 78 at Augusta National last week to make that cut on the number.
Streelman's lone cut made in three starts in Hilton Head resulted in a T36 last year. While he's logged the pair of top 10 this season, he didn't crack the top 55 in his other two cuts made. He's also missed five cuts, including the Shell Houston Open two weeks ago. Consider he missed only seven cuts in 26 starts in all of 2011. Immelman gets the edge.
Meanwhile, Glover has three top 20s in nine starts at Harbour Town but he's still grinding his way back into form after spraining a ligament in his right knee while paddle boarding on New Year's Eve in Hawaii. This week's host course should serve as a bit of a soft landing, but he's been all over the map in three starts this year. The approach here is simple: ignore his history here and leave him be until he finds a groove.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: The Masters | Sign up for fantasy
While the brightest lights of the year thus far are locked in on the likes of Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson, the Masters is very much just another golf tournament in the comebacks of the healing. Certainly, Woods has spent time on the disabled list already, but others in this week's field haven't fulfilled the kind of success he experienced in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard two weeks ago.
Tim Clark (right elbow), Scott Verplank (left wrist), Mike Weir (right elbow), Paul Casey (right shoulder), Lucas Glover (right knee) and Scott Stallings (ribs) are a combined 4-for-21 with one top-45 finish (Stallings' T22 at the 27-man Hyundai Tournament of Champions). All entered 2012 with some form of fantasy value but the outlook for each remains very much for the long-term. All are in the field at the Masters.
A regular emailer hit me earlier this week with the following quandary:
Hey Rob. So, we decided to be patient with Paul Casey. We have Y.E. Yang as well, who is not playing well. Jimmy Walker, Bud Cauley, Harris English, Ryo Ishikawa, John Huh, Trevor Immelman, Charlie Wi and Scott Piercy are some of the players available. Would you cut either Casey or Yang for any of these players? -- Craig
Note: It's important to know that Craig participates in an eight-team league of 10 golfers per. Top-15 finishes determine value and he's limited to five moves for the season. His current roster consists of Casey, Yang, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk, Justin Rose, Zach Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els, David Toms and Kyle Stanley.
Inquiries such as this are common in my email in-box. Formats like Craig's require a balanced attack. You don't want to load up on guys that are going to face the deepest fields of the year as it makes it more difficult to crack the top 15. However, Kuchar and Rose are cornerstones; Furyk and Els are coming on strong; Johnson is a great fit for certain courses; and Toms will get his as he usually does.
In addition to the objective, with only 10 golfers in play, one must be frugal. Stanley is a stud, so I don't mind him occupying a maximum one slot on the roster invested in potential.
Garcia is a tasty option but he doesn't play enough or at a high-enough level with consistency. That said, there are plenty of starts to go around on a good team so the Spaniard can hide a bit. He's a keeper.
That brings us back to Casey and Yang. The Englishman is rapidly burning his bridge with fantasy gamers. He's plummeting in the Official World Golf Ranking (currently 38th), which qualifies him as a bubble boy for the U.S. Open. (He's already eligible for the British Open and should have no problem getting into the PGA Championship.) That he's on conditional status doesn't concern me as much as his play since returning to competition from his mishap on the snowboard. If I owned him, the Masters would serve as his final audition.
Yang is in a different situation. He, too, was bothered by a sore shoulder in December, but he's played a full schedule and has made the weekend in each of his last three strokes-play starts that had a cut. The problem is, he's not posting top 25s in those starts, much less top 15s. He's already eligible for the limited-field World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational, but is that enough to warrant his inclusion moving forward?
At this point, we need to eliminate free agents. Ishikawa is a non-member and will play less than Garcia. Wi will find his spots but he doesn't pack the same kind of week-in, week-out punch as other options. Cauley and English are rookies with incredible cachet but I struggle in spending even one roster spot on a 10-man club on first-time PGA TOUR members. Huh is also a rookie but he's illustrated an uncanny knack for wedging his way onto leaderboards as evidenced by his win in Mexico and three other top 15s. Tough call there, but he's still a rookie.
Walker continues to serve as great value across the board but he's played his best golf on the West Coast the last couple of years when he's been healthy. That sets him up as a bit of a trap. Immelman still fights with his nagging wrist, which is not what you want on a short squad.
That leaves Piercy, who I love. He's aggressive. He plays a ton. He's fully exempt through 2013. I'd plug in Piercy for Casey after the Masters and let Yang marinate a little longer. Moreover, the dynamics shift so quickly week to week that Craig's strategy just might sort itself out.
If you play a similar format, consider these angles. Use tournaments are tests and lines in the sand to create conviction. It's within that quantifiable decision-making where confidence and clear thinking originates.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: Shell Houston Open | Sign up for fantasy
The Fantasy Mailbag was surprisingly light this week. So, we have an opportunity to take a moment to focus on a guy that's currently flying under the radar, not that it's unfamiliar territory for the Aussie.
Hi Rob. I am in first place in my league (salary cap; points based on money won). Do you have any information regarding Jason Day? His schedule on the PGA TOUR has been down from previous years. Is he battling an injury? -- Todd
Indeed, the 24-year-old started his U.S.-based play later this year than during any of his previous four since his rookie season of 2008. But it's not due to an injury.
Day started 2012 with two tournaments on the Desert Swing on the European Tour. After missing the cut in Abu Dhabi, he shared runner-up honors at the Qatar Masters. It's the first time he's ever played that circuit in the month of January.
Two weeks later, he placed T62 at the Northern Trust Open, his first of four starts in a five-week stretch on the PGA TOUR. He'll have had two weeks to recharge before returning at next week's Masters, where he shared second place in his debut last year.
Since his forgettable finish at Riviera in February, Day's 1-1 record at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship and pair of T20s in stroke-play starts have done little to ease the concern of gamers with higher expectations like Todd, but there is no reason to panic.
Looking back at his schedule over the years, yes, he had sinus surgery in the last quarter of 2010, but he took the last three months of 2009 off, too, choosing to get married, honeymoon and rest. He played out of the conditional status category on the PGA TOUR in 2009. That limited him to 18 starts, but he had no trouble in securing fully exempt status for 2010. And he hasn't looked back.
That was a valuable turning point for gamers. However, upstarts like Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Michael Sim were commanding our attention while Day was on his sabbatical. Moreover, he's reduced his playing time to 24 and 21 starts the last two years, respectively. We knew this entering 2012, and he isn't deviating.
Day's wife Ellie is due to give birth to the couple's first child in July. Jason has already confirmed that golf will not prevent him from being with Ellie for the birth, no matter when it is.
The moral of the story is that you can plan accordingly for his potential DNP at the British Open; otherwise, it's full steam ahead as usual for one of the most efficient touring pros in the world.
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist
FANTASY PREVIEW: Arnold Palmer Invitational | Sign up for fantasy
Once upon a time, not long ago, all forms of one-and-done leagues plugged Tiger Woods in at the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational. It was the only decision all year that didn't require analysis, debate and second-guessing.
Gamers that defied conventional wisdom were quickly reminded of their foolishness. In the 10 editions in which Woods competed from 1999-2009, he won seven. In the other three, a combined seven golfers scored lower, and none more than once.
As Woods gears up for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard, one-and-doners are tempted by his similarly impressive track record at Bay Hill. In 14 appearances as a professional, he's won six times and hasn't missed a cut.
I received the following email overnight Monday from a regular reader that has already enjoyed some success in his one-and-done this year thanks to Brandt Snedeker's playoff victory at the Farmers Insurance Open along with a pair of other top fives.
After reading your Power Rankings , I'm torn with what to do [in my one-and-done]. Is now the time for Tiger? Can he be trusted? I'm leaning towards no on both of those on a gut hunch. Thoughts? Thanks. -- Mike
Talk about a paradigm shift.
That Woods is even on any short lists at Bay Hill speaks to how gamers' strategies have evolved in the last two years. They're thirsty to invest anywhere it could make sense, not where it does make sense.
Indeed, Woods sits atop my Power Rankings. Like you, I was blown away by his bogey-free 62 to run through the tape and push Rory McIlroy at PGA National three weeks ago. And like you, I was concerned when he walked off TPC Blue Monster at Doral during his final round with an inflamed left Achilles' tendon just seven days later. But positioning in the Power Rankings must be held separate of fantasy philosophy and long-range planning.
This is where I turn to the Masters in two weeks.
It's the only tournament in which he hasn't failed to compete as a professional. He's won four times and posted 12 top 10s, including in each of the last seven years. (All but one of the last seven appearances has resulted in a top-four finish.)
Furthermore, Augusta National Golf Club was the site where he chose to emerge from his personal challenges outside the ropes in 2010. He finished in a tie for fourth place under unimaginable scrutiny.
After a substandard start to 2011, he shared the lead at the midpoint of his final round but would settle for another T4. Yet, it was his only top five in nine PGA TOUR starts.
The clinching factor takes us back to the WGC-Bridgestone, where he finished T78 and T37 the last two years, the same two years he went T4-T4 at the Masters.
Gone are the days free of speculation and doubt on when to burn him. However, while I love his chances at Bay Hill this week, Woods' confidence and skill set is of no greater value to one-and-doners than at the season's first major.