By Brett Avery There’s no such thing as a sure thing these days. Which is precisely why The Fantasy Insider is going with sure things this week. Well, perhaps not every guy’s a sure thing. But most of them. Oh, who is TFI trying to kid? He’s grabbing 10 good-looking names and then going out to stock up on Halloween candy. TFI was rarin’ to pick 10 guys for the Chrysler Championship who were teetering on one bubble or another: a top-30 berth in THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola, the top 50 for majors or the marks for limited-field exemptions or the top 125 for a card next year. And then he decided to chuck that out the window. TFI's gut tells him the players who don't have their lives on the line are the ones who will do the best this week. TFI went back and did a little research on how the top 30 breaks in the final week before THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola. And it was an eye-opener. Going back to 1996, there have been four years when there were no changes in the top 30 players thanks to the final event before THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola. In five years one player cracked the top 30 in the last week: Tiger Woods (had been 34th on the money list) in 1996, Bill Glasson (54) in 1997, Kenny Perry (31st) in 2002, Briny Baird (35th) in 2003 and Kenny Perry again (31st) in 2004. Last year two guys made it into the top 30: Tim Herron (40th) and Chad Campbell (43rd). In fact, in the last four years the guys who made it did so with a top-10 finish prior the week. Now, to TFI's thinking that's not an overwhelming change over the span of a decade. And combined with some stories he's read the last few weeks about how little the top 125 changes in the last week or two, it doesn't seem prudent to try and pick the will-become-hot player out of the haystack. So TFI's going with guys who probably will treat the Chrysler Championship as if it is being played toward the end of the summer and there's plenty of time to make more cash. He's also taking three guys in the top lineup who go for the rock-bottom salary of $75,000. He's also got another guy on the "Hey, buddy" lineup going for a shade over $80k. Why? They're looking stronger and stronger as the weeks dwindle on this season. Besides, he's certainly not going to find comparable prices out shopping for treats for the goblins. Pick One: Vijay Singh ($296,750). TFI's banking on that final-round 64 last week at Disney showing he still has a pulse. A nice run in June (winning Barclays Classic ) into early July but since then few highlights. Will past champ ('04) mojo work? Balance: $703,250. Pick Two: Justin Rose ($186,250). Perhaps the only guy more disappointed in his third-round 72 last week is TFI, who has visions of climbing up the Salary Cap Cup standings dancing in his head. If nothing else this week he should be top 10 material (famous last words). Balance: $517,000. Pick Three: Harrison Frazar ($75,000). This guy's been in a rut since The INTERNATIONAL in mid-August, finishing between 10th and 36th as repeatedly as a record skips its groove. Piping those winnings into the bank makes him a good value at this salary. Balance: $442,000. Pick Four: Charley Hoffman ($75,000). One of the few bright spots in Segment Four for TFI, who tapped this guy as a lock in the segment's early stages. Coming off an idle week and looking for his fourth top 20 in six starts. Make it a doozy! Balance: $367,000. Pick Five: Nick Watney ($75,000). Another bust-out week (tie for fifth) at Disney pushes him past $1.2 million for the season, not a bad year for a guy out of last year's Q-school. Believe it or not, he's 70th or worse in nine of the TOUR's 12 most important statistical categories. As long as the check cashes, baby, TFI doesn't give a whit! Balance: $292,000. Hey, buddy, can you spare $931,250? Loved them but ran out of slots or into the salary cap: • Adam Scott ($300,000). Difficult to call it a bad year when a guy climbs to No. 4 in the world but his performance in PGA TOUR events this year (no wins, three seconds, three thirds) hardly reflects that stature. • Trevor Immelman ($287,000). Since the Shell Houston Open in late April this guy has only three finishes worse than last week's tie for 14th, with the Cialis Western Open win and two seconds shining examples of why he's a solid pick (famous last words). • Troy Matteson ($157,000). TFI is feeling a ton of love for this guy, even if he did drop him from the "Hey, buddy" lineup during last week's juggling. Of his last seven rounds, four are 65 or better and the worst is that closing 70 Sunday. Go hard! • Frank Lickliter II ($105,000). Little over a week ago TFI received an email from someone wondering why he hadn't shown this guy any love, in light of his four top 10s in seven starts. TFI wants that kind of love this week! • Mark Calcavecchia ($82,250). He's got enough experience to know that where he is on the money list (No. 128) isn't that much different from being inside the top 125. That said, last week's tie for ninth was his first top 10 since a tie for eighth at the same event last year. Plus he loves those Florida conditions. Salary Cap Cup lineup for FUNAI Classic at WALT DISNEY WORLD Resort: The main lineup of Davis Love III ($161,575, tied fifth), Justin Rose ($370,800, fourth; includes $150,000 bonus as round leader), Bo Van Pelt ($0, missed cut), Harrison Frazar ($66,700, tied 17th) and Daniel Chopra ($0, missed cut) earned $599,075 and placed 2,195th. Through Week 42 it totals $4,728,171 and ranks 2,230rd. Lot of crossed fingers last Saturday at TFI's place but no chance he could will Rose to a higher finish. Makes a guy want to watch hockey. The "Hey, buddy" backup lineup of Vijay Singh ($161,575, tied fifth), Carl Pettersson ($0, missed cut), Charles Howell III ($115,000, tied ninth), Mark Calcavecchia ($115,000, tied ninth) and Hunter Mahan ($20,732, tied 36th) earned $412,307 and placed 4,783rd. Through Week 42 it totals $3,049,373 and ranks 9,482nd. So that's a total of five players who finish tied for ninth or better, yet TFI can't get a sniff of the top 1,000 with either lineup because he doesn't have winner Joe Durant. Makes a guy want to watch curling. Week 42 winner: EIR $1,979,182. Segment Four leader: Can buy game $7,987,843. Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. |
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