TFI: Go with the desperate ones

 

By Brett Avery
The Fantasy Insider
PGATOUR.COM Contributor

Sleeping through the night? Passing the antacid aisle in the pharmacy without hesitation?

You must not be fighting for a top 125 spot on the PGA TOUR money list.

There's a whole lot of grinding going on these days -- and for the next four tournaments, in fact, beginning with this week's Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. That fact's hardly an October surprise because most of the players hanging on either side of 125th on the money list have been flirting with that number throughout the season.

Unlike other years, though, there's not as much of a nail-biting atmosphere around the top 125. At least not this far into the game. There's a simple reason: The gap between 125th and 135th, the fertile ground of checking-account-to-checking-account combat, is $107,974.

That's enormous in the context of this discussion. Lee Westwood isn't likely to add to his 14th TOUR starts this year so, for this week at least, his $630,566 is the target. And the dozen starts by Jose Coceres, which brought $522,592, won't keep him at 135th.

But that space of about $108,000 between them represents a yawning chasm, equal to about an 11th-place finish this time of year.

The Fantasy Insider periodically notes the incentives that drive players up the food chain: exemptions, spots in short-field TOUR events, perhaps even a bonus or two from an equipment manufacturer or corporate sponsor.

But at the lower rungs there's only one motivator: Keep the card for next year.

TFI's studied the guys from 125th to 175th and chose four players likely to get a move-on during October. They'll probably cost the $75,000 minimum in Salary Cap Cup the rest of the year but could bring a nice reward as the season comes to a close.

Not surprisingly, all of these guys are veterans. They know how good they've had it during their careers and aren't ready to surrender their cards.

Duffy Waldorf ($555,571, 130th): Out of the top 100 only three times since 1990, including squeaking through to 120th in 2001. Of course, last year he placed 153rd and didn't have any top-10 finishes (he took care of that early this year with a tie for third in the Chrysler Classic of Tucson). An assistant to Tom Lehman in the U.S.'s losing Ryder Cup bid, he doesn't want to look back on a completely soured 2006.

Chris Riley ($485,608, 141st): Don't look now, but that exemption for being on the 2004 Ryder Cup team expires at the end of the month. Short hitters need to hit lots of greens, although during the past few years Riley's been the exception to the rule: The No. 145 guy in driving distance is No. 174 in greens in regulation. What's killed him this year is a final-round scoring average of 72.43. Even though he wounded himself with a 71 at the Valero Texas Open (tied fifth) and a 74 at the Southern Farm Bureau Classic (tied 25th) he secured two of his four top-25s this season.

David McKenzie ($417,308, 152nd): Whether he can make up so much ground on No. 125 in four tournaments will be one of the big questions this month. The Australian gained his seasoning in this country through the Nationwide Tour, where he cracked the top 10 12 times in 55 starts during 2003-05. True, players in the top 150 earn conditional status for the next season but he won't be content sitting too much.

Marco Dawson ($371,959, 162nd): One of the former kings of the mini-tours has slammed together three straight top-30s the last three weeks for about $128,000 toward the bottom line. That's no comparison to his death spiral in 2003, when he locked up his card by June and then failed to make the weekend in 12 of his last 14 starts. He's started hitting fairways and greens -- he hasn't been automatic this year in that regard -- and has matched his longest streak without a cut this season (four).

Pick One: Carl Pettersson ($293,500). Tied for 11th at Forest Oaks Country Club last year, yet another display of his power working on a course that also requires a deft touch.

Balance: $706,500.

Pick Two: Lucas Glover ($280,500). Don't look now, but that's three finishes in the top 13 in as many starts. Last year's tie for 21st here isn't a clinching factor the way it might be with other players but tough to discount that current form.

Balance: $426,000.

Pick Three: Shigeki Maruyama ($238,250). Haven't heard much out of him this season but he's pieced together three spots in the top 16 since the B.C. Open in late July. A winner's check would push him toward THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola.

Balance: $187,750.

Pick Four: Marco Dawson ($75,000). He's had only one closing round above par since a 79 at the Wachovia Championship in May. An infrequent competitor here but his game should meld with Forest Oaks.

Balance: $112,750.

Pick Five: Charley Hoffman ($75,000). TFI's anticipating one more big pop to get over the $1 million mark for the season. He's done well on some of the tougher tracks this season.

Balance: $37,750.

Hey, buddy, can you spare $799,750? Loved them but ran out of slots or into the salary cap:

  Jerry Kelly ($241,500). TFI struggled with this pick but at the last minute decided to take him on the basis of four of his last five visits to Forest Oaks (three top 10s and a tie for 19th). That recent record, though, isn't the greatest...

  Ted Purdy ($235,000). An infrequent visitor, making his first start here since a tie for eighth two years ago (and before that it was a missed cut in 1999). Coming off three solid finishes (by a guy who couldn't make a cut much of the summer).

  Brad Faxon ($173,250). The runner-up here in 1997 and 2003 also needs another big push to get into the top 125 ($543,681, 132nd). His putting average (1.761, 44th) hasn't been this low since 2003, when he made a career-best $2.7 million.

  Duffy Waldorf ($75,000). His final-round scoring average in his last five Sundays is 69.0. That's a heckuva lot better than that pre-cut average of 71.20 (102nd). So the assignment this week is to root him into the weekend.

  Chris Riley ($75,000). Tied for 14th here four years ago in his most recent appearance. If the irons work this can be his playground.

Salary Cap Cup lineup for WGC-American Express Championship and Southern Farm Bureau Classic: The main lineup of Tiger Woods ($1,650,000, won!; includes $350,000 bonus as round leader), Sergio Garcia ($61,000, tied 32nd), Stewart Cink ($98,375, tied 13th), Ted Purdy ($109,500, tied fifth) and Charley Hoffman ($6,390, tied 61st) earned $1,925,265 and placed 6,899th. Through Week 39 it totals $3,706,687 and ranks 2,055th. Woods was fish-in-a-barrel easy but three of the supporting cast showed little life (the exception being Purdy). Thanks Ted!

The "Hey, buddy" backup lineup of Adam Scott ($610,000, tied second), Ernie Els ($290,000, fifth), K.J. Choi ($61,000, tied 32nd), Brett Quigley ($150,000, tied ninth) and Cameron Beckman ($21,466, tied 25th) earned $1,132,466 and placed 14,783rd. Through Week 39 it totals $1,583,239 and ranks 17,759th. Not as big a number but certainly the better performance. So if TFI had taken Woods, Scott, Quigley, Purdy and Beckman he would have had cracked $2.5 million for the week. Better luck next time!

Week 39 winner: I hate Tiger $3,465,041.

Segment Four leader: Can buy game $6,587,374.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com.