By Brett Avery Ah, Segment Four. This week it feels as if an old friend dropped in for a cup of joe and some over-the-fence conversation. The Fantasy Insider has experienced a fair amount of success polishing off each of the last two Salary Cap Cup seasons, nearly cracking the top 100 each time in the days when the year was split into three segments. So it’s understandable that he’s rarin’ for the newly configured Segment Four to finish in a blaze of glory. This segment is a nine-week sprint through the Fall Finish, from this week’s Canadian Open to THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola in early November. On the plus side such brevity means the off-season is within sight -- and TFI is counting the days until he can spend a Monday night on the sofa, eating bonbons and watching reruns of “The Closer.” On the minus side having only nine weeks means you can’t have a bad tournament and expect to place ahead of the majority of Salary Cap Cup’s 35,000-plus participants. Now, TFI would love nothing more than to say he has a well-reasoned, complicated formula for ferreting out success in Segment Four. You know, lots of charts manipulating arcane statistics such as third-round scoring average or scrambling from the rough. No dice. TFI’s mantra for the end-of-season rush is so easy even a 4-year-old can grasp it in about six seconds: Pick the hot players. Stupidly simple and yet cunningly effective. In 2004, TFI latched onto Vijay Singh two-thirds of the way through the season and rode his broad shoulders through about 32 tournament victories (including three tournaments that, remarkably, Singh hadn’t entered). The Salary Cap Cup winnings piled so high TFI had to go out and put one of those cubicle storage units in his driveway for the overflow. Last year TFI climbed aboard as Tiger Woods polished off another world-beater season (including eight digits in official money). By September the storage unit was back in TFI’s driveway as he again nearly cracked the last segment’s overall top 100. True, anyone can pick Woods or Singh to win a tournament. The way they’re playing these days you’d have to be soft upstairs to miss that one-two punch. What really separates the girls and boys from the pretenders, though, is being able to delve deeper into the roster for big earners at the most opportune moment. TFI’s 2005 success? He adopted Ryan Moore just as the four-time All-America left behind his success at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. Within 12 starts Moore amassed nearly $700,000, enough to secure a 2006 card off the non-member money list. Now, several hundred thousand doesn’t compare to Singh and Woods earnings. But to have any success, a Salary Cap Cup competitor needs five guys who cash big every week. Who has broad shoulders this season? TFI has five guys he’s tracking while keeping his eyes peeled for breakout performers: • Jim Furyk. Remember all that Big Five talk earlier in the season? This guy’s put himself in a solid No. 3 spot in the Official World Ranking on the strength of a handful of top-four finishes in his last six starts. He’s a solid late-season performer (the exception is 2004, when he was recovering from a hand injury) and eying No. 2 Phil Mickelson, who probably will make fewer starts from now to season’s end. Furyk’s seventh in fairways and greens, ninth in birdies (crucial at this time of year) and second in scoring average. • Luke Donald or J.J. Henry. Selections 1 and 1A (depending on Ryder Cup outcome). They’re of similar age (late 20s) but dissimilar games (Donald’s a shorter and more accurate driver and solid putter, Henry’s a borderline bomber struggling on the greens). They’ve each won this year and capitalizing on those successes as they elbow their way into a seat at the adult table. Both have a good shot at THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola but only one will walk away from the Ryder Cup Match as a winner -- and that should be the guy to take in October and early November. • Robert Allenby. This season is shaping up like 2003: only one missed cut (the Nissan Open in Feburary) and a handful of top 10s entering September. Three years ago he racked up a quartet of top 20s in his last half-dozen starts, jumping into THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola field; at this moment he’s 48th in earnings $1,374,936. Three years ago he finished No. 4 in the all-around stat; so far this year he’s No. 1. Oh, and as an Australian he’ll keep his mind on the weekly tournaments, not the Ryder Cup circus. • Charley Hoffman. It’s a big leap from the Nationwide Tour to the PGA TOUR but this guy’s chugged along with seven top 10s in 23 starts and more than $750,000 in earnings. Last year he posted four Nationwide top 10s in his last six starts and in 2004 he won the Permian Basin Charity Classic two weeks before the Nationwide Tour Championship. He’s 20th in the all-around stat this season despite missing seven cuts (including three of his last five). One warning: His weekend-round scoring averages are only for those with a cast-iron stomach (136th in third round, 75th in fourth round). Pick One: Jim Furyk ($300,000). His first start in the Canadian Open since 1999 and he’s never been better than a tie for 22nd. Shouldn’t matter, considering his recent run and the fact that he’s clearly the cream in this field. Balance: $700,000. Pick Two: Mike Weir ($274,000). TFI knows a fair number of the writers covering golf for Canadian newspapers and magazines and feels their pain when it comes to the paucity of homegrown winners. This guy’s still stinging from missing the cut last year and should provide plenty of excitement. Balance: $426,000 Pick Three: Steve Stricker ($241,500). He’s done more with a marginal schedule than anyone: five top 10s in 14 starts with back-to-back ties for seventh. Hamilton G&CC should suit him considering he tied for 60th in the event’s last visit three years ago. Not impressed? That was one of his best finishes in a dismal season. Balance: $184,500. Pick Four: Tommy Armour III ($75,000). Not that this is a solid pick but TFI’s got the gut feeling about this one and not much more. He tied for 11th three years ago but struggled before taking off four of the last five weeks. Balance: $109,500. Pick Five: Chris Riley ($75,000). He’s made only two Canadian Open starts, including a tie for 23rd three years ago when he lost ground with a closing 72. Usually picks apart courses under 7,000 yards, where being 144th in driving distance isn’t a detraction. Balance: $34,500. Hey, buddy, can you spare $963,000? Loved them but ran out of slots or into the salary cap: • Vijay Singh ($296,750). The 2004 champ has four straight showings of seventh or better in this event, an admirable record. That showdown last week with Woods at the Deutsche Bank Championship ended a bit quickly but still showed his game is returning to meet expectations. • Charles Howell III ($205,750). This might be tempting fate after last week’s tie for 18th -- more fodder for the message board! -- but he tied for 14th three years ago at Hamilton Golf and Country Club and might be finding the right location for all of the pieces. • Corey Pavin ($202,500). Another guy who should find a sub-7,000-yard course to his liking, especially in light of that victory six weeks ago in the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee. • Billy Andrade ($183,000). This certainly isn’t 1998 or Glen Abbey GC outside Toronto, the date and place of his Canadian Open victory. But he’s chugging along nicely: Last week’s tie for 22nd guaranteed his fifth million-dollar year. • Bob May ($75,000). In his last four times making the cut in a stroke-play start his lowest rounds of the week are 64, 66, 65 and 67. He’s still having some trouble breaking 72 each time out but the glimmer of hope is there … this week? Salary Cap Cup results for Deutsche Bank Championship: The main lineup of Tiger Woods ($1,040,000, won!; includes $50,000 round leader bonus), Adam Scott ($13,074, tied 50th), Charles Howell III ($74,250, tied 18th), Daniel Chopra ($0, missed cut) and Marco Dawson ($0, missed cut) earned $1,127,324 and placed 9,942nd. At the end of Segment Three the team totaled $13,236,585 and ranked 370th. OK, not bad despite being 71st at one point. TFI’s happy … why not? The “Hey, buddy” backup lineup of Vijay Singh ($794,000, second; includes $200,000 in round leader bonus), Carl Pettersson ($0, missed cut), John Rollins ($22,000, tied 40th), Jeff Brehaut ($12,265, tied 57th) and Tim Petrovic ($0, missed cut) earned $828,265 and placed 19,077th. At the end of Segment Three the team totaled $6,183,543 and ranked 17,867th. The curse of having a strong main lineup is the difficulty in finding another crop of five guys each week who are even close in earning power. Such is life! Week 35 winner: jaybirds $2,365,750. Segment Three winner: 4ford $16,551,461. Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please remember to include your team and league names and whether you’re playing a rotisserie or H2H league. |
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