By Brett Avery This is where we start saying goodbye. And hello. Fifty percent of the team owners in head-to-head League Championship Fantasy have this week's Buick Open as their last tournament of the season. They won't make the playoffs so the conclusion of the regular season is their fond farewell. Let's be honest: That pretty much encompasses anyone who decided to bench themselves by not keeping track of their teams on a day-to-day basis. It also means the easy weeks are going bye-bye, too. TFI enjoys one last pushover week at the Buick, going up against a 4-23-1 destin team that cost him the only tie of the season in the Pacific Tour League. Thanks to clinching a playoff spot last week, TFI doesn't have to sweat out this one. Neither does anyone else who is in the playoffs. This is a week to assess and begin positioning the lineup. But TFI does have to figure out a way to make it through the first round of the playoffs, against a hookn and a slicin team he's 0-4 against this year. And that's the hello part, because the only teams remaining have the owners who have obsessively planned and studied and traded and waived their way to a successful record. The same holds true for rotisserie LCF leagues. The weak owners packed it in a while ago, leaving only the teams with a reasonable chance of winning the thing. Or owners who are deluding themselves into believing they have a chance to win the thing. As the remaining weeks have counted down in LCF, the philosophy TFI uses to make his selections has shifted, too. He's gone from shopping for long-term talent and a boatload of tournament starts to focus on players who will produce right this moment. TFI never wants to make a swim in the PGA TOUR's statistical river more complicated than necessary, so he spent time during his Monday night research session trying to decide the handful of stats that point to in-form players. He came up with three statistics available in every player's bio at PGATOUR.com, not mainline stuff like scoring average or all-around but a bit more esoteric: --Par breakers, which calculates the percentage of holes at which a player makes birdie, eagle or double eagle. Phil Mickelson leads at 25.9 percent. --Top 10s, which unlike money doesn't fluctuate depending on where one played. Vijay Singh leads with 10 (yet ranks fifth in earnings). As a stand-in for international players TFI will count up global top 10s by looking up the player's past performance chart in the Official World Ranking.
--Average distance of putts made, which totals all putts made in feet
and divides by the number or rounds played to give an average of putts
holed each day. TFI likes this combo for a few reasons. While it's likely that someone who is a world-beater putter is a shoo-in to rank high in par breakers, it's not always the case. Only one guy in the scrambling top 10 is in the top 20 in par breakers (Steve Stricker). To make it high on both lists requires consistent performance with the combo of approach shots, short game and putting. The top 10s (or the global top 10s) requires consistency of a different, wider stripe. It speaks to adaptability to a variety of course designs and conditions, strength throughout all aspects of the game and frequent appearances on the tee. TFI toyed with a few other stats -- three-putt avoidance, final-round scoring average and bounce backs -- but decided on the above trio. And those numbers will play a huge role in whom he plays -- and who he says goodbye and hello to -- these last few weeks. One last thing: Thanks to everyone who sent in suggestions last week on how to improve LCF and Salary Cap Cup. TFI's inbox was overflowing with ideas, all shipped off to HQ for consideration during the off-season. Good work! Three players TFI might pick up/trade for to get onto his roster this week:
--Robert
Allenby (32nd in par breakers, 2 top 10s, 28th in average
distance of putts made). Back after an idle week and ranked No. 1 as the
PGA TOUR¹s all-around stat leader. That No. 3 ranking in the total
driving stat is a big plus this time of season but that 72.20
final-round scoring average is troubling. TFI picked him up for his H2H
Pacific Tour League but was blocked Monday night in the rotisserie
Expert League by
--Stewart Cink (54th in par breakers, 5 top 10s, 55th in average distance of putts made). Not to sound like the proverbial broken record, but this guy's final-round scoring average of 69.57 puts him sixth on TOUR and marks him as a late closer. Those Ryder Cup points need to come hot and heavy now, too: He's 19th in the pecking order and in danger of missing the team after making the last two. He's sitting out the Buick Open but grab him now for the last few weeks of the season. One player TFI might waive/drop/trade away to get off his roster this week: --Bo Van Pelt. TFI's tried so hard the last two weeks to like this guy but his poor showing in the British Open Championship was topped by that spectacular flameout in Milwaukee. This time of year even a marginal performer needs to go. There's “no might” about unloading him from the roster of the rotisserie Expert League, where he picked up Allenby. Rotisserie results for Expert League at U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee: 58.5 points (third). One-putts 117 (third), birdies 71 (third), bouncebacks 9 (second), 300+ drives 20 (third), fairways 155 (third), greens 222 (third), money $437,657 (first), scoring 68.1 (fourth), scrambles 50 (third), eagles 0 (tied fifth). Overall: 62.5 points (third). So TFI is a point out of second place and less than 6 points behind the leader. Makes all those miserable weeks almost worthwhile. Almost. Rotisserie lineup for Buick Open:
Ben Crane, Geoff Ogilvy, Heath
Slocum, Jeff Sluman, Vaughn
Taylor, H2H results for Pacific Tour League at U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee:
TFI 217, Geo’sgolf 106. Driving: Tom
Pernice Jr. 53, Richard S. Johnson 54. Short game: Nick O’Hern
43, H2H lineup for Buick Open:
destin (4-23-1) vs. TFI (15-12-1). Driving:
Robert Allenby, Tom Pernice Jr.
Short game: Salary Cap Cup results for U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee: The main lineup of Scott Verplank ($11,211, tied 45th), Bo Van Pelt ($0, missed cut), Ryuji Imada ($0, missed cut), Daisuke Maruyama ($0, missed cut) and John Cook ($16,400, tied 38th) earned $27,611 and placed 19,012nd. Through Week 30 it totals $6,917,691 and ranks 203rd. Nothing like a cold slap in the face with a mackerel to make climbing into the top 20 that much tougher. The “Hey, buddy” lineup of Nick O’Hern ($31,657, tied 24th), Mark Calcavecchia ($7,880, tied 69th), Billy Andrade ($134,000, tied sixth), Kevin Sutherland ($16,400, tied 38th) and Todd Fischer ($9,280, tied 52nd) earned $199,217 and placed 6,171st. Through Week 30 it totals $2,297,543 and placed 22,158th. If only TFI has swapped this lineup for the top one. But, hey, on the bright side, five guys who make the cut. Week 30 winner: Poohs $1,824,400. Segment Three leader: Four Moo $9,306,784. Salary Cap Cup lineup for Buick Open: Main lineup, Tiger Woods $300,000, Geoff Ogilvy $290,250, Justin Leonard $231,750, Omar Uresti $98,500, Daisuke Maruyama $79,000. Total: $999,500. “Hey, buddy” backup lineup, Jim Furyk $293,500, Chris DiMarco $283,750, Fred Funk $244,750, Bob May $75,000, Dicky Pride $75,000. Total: $972,000. Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please remember to include your team and league names and whether you're playing a rotisserie or H2H league. |
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