Players to Watch: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
By Mike Vitti PGA TOUR staff
Spread over three distinct courses, this event challenges all
aspects of
a player’s game, which is probably why nine of the last 10
winners of
the event have been ranked at least 30th in the Official World
Golf
Ranking entering this event. Tiger
Woods, Phil Mickelson,
Vijay Singh, Davis Love
III and
Mark O’Meara own seven of the last 10 titles and all
were
ranked at least 10th in the World Golf Rankings when they won.
In terms of scoring difficulty the three courses used in this
event,
Spyglass Hill Golf Club (25th), Poppy Hills (32nd) and Pebble
Beach Golf
Links (34th), all ranked in the middle relative to the other
courses on
the PGA TOUR in 2005. The average overall rankings for these
courses are
probably more indicative of course set-up for a pro-am format
than the
unique challenges that each course presents.
Of the individual holes, only the par-4 No. 9 hole on Pebble
Beach Golf
Links ranked as one of the top-75 most difficult holes on TOUR,
and only
two holes -- the No. 9 and the par-3 No. 5 on Pebble Beach --
were
ranked in the top 100. Additionally, No. 14 on Pebble Beach was
the
fifth-hardest par 5 on TOUR and was one of only seven par 5s
last year
that did not have a player successfully land their ball on the
green
when attempting to reach the green in two.
Three of the shortest holes on TOUR are included in the group of
holes
being played this week. Two of which, the 106-yard No. 7 on
Pebble Beach
and the 125-yard No. 15 on Spyglass Hill, rank as the first- and
third-shortest, respectively. Ultimately, the key to victory
this week
may actually be how players perform on these par 3s. Since 1998,
only
Davis Love III in 2001 has finished the event with a par 3
birdie or
better percentage ranked outside of the top-10 and under 23
percent.
Par-3 Birdie or Better Percentage
Year
Winner
Event Rank
Event Stat
1998
Phil
Mickelson
T-10th
23.10%
1999
Payne
Stewart
T-8th
23.10%
2000
Tiger
Woods
T-2nd
29.40%
2001
Davis Love
III
T-3rd
29.40%
2002
Matt
Gogel
T-8th
23.50%
2003
Davis Love
III
T-11th
17.60%
2004
Vijay
Singh
T-5th
29.40%
2005
Phil
Mickelson
T-8th
23.30%
Without having ShotLink data available for all three courses, it
is
tricky to assess which other attributes in addition to the par
3s could
be key factors in winning the AT&T Pebble
Beach National Pro-Am. Of the statistics available,
ball striking, though obvious, may actually be the best
indicator of
success when combined with the par 3 statistic. When Love won in
2003 he
had a relatively low par 3 birdie percentage (17.4 percent), but
he
ranked first in ball striking. Matt
Gogel
in 2002, finished the event ranked outside the top-25 in the
aggregate
ball striking category, but he was still eighth in par 3 birdie
percentage. When adding rankings for the two statistics, I found
that
only Gogel had a combined rank higher than 27. To put this in
perspective, of the four winners of full field events on the PGA
TOUR in
2006, the best total when adding the ranking for par-3 birdie or
better
percentage has been David Toms
at the Sony Open in
Hawaii who had a combined total of 34. The remaining
three winners had a combined rank of at least 70.
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Rankings
Year
Winner
Par 3 Birdie or Better %
Ball Striking
Sum of Ranks
1998
Phil
Mickelson
10
17
27
1999
Payne
Stewart
8
13
21
2000
Tiger
Woods
2
1
3
2001
Davis Love
III
3
9
12
2002
Matt
Gogel
8
60
68
2003
Davis Love
III
11
1
12
2004
Vijay
Singh
5
24
29
2005
Phil
Mickelson
8
11
19
Considering the par 3 birdie or better percentage, ball striking and
adding in the Official World Golf Ranking through the first five
events
of 2006, the following players should fair well at this
year’s event.
Key Statistics for the
2006 AT&T Pebble Beach
National Pro-Am