Players to Watch: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
By Mike Vitti
PGA TOUR staff
 

Spread over three distinct courses, this event challenges all aspects of a player’s game, which is probably why nine of the last 10 winners of the event have been ranked at least 30th in the Official World Golf Ranking entering this event. Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Davis Love III and Mark O’Meara own seven of the last 10 titles and all were ranked at least 10th in the World Golf Rankings when they won.

In terms of scoring difficulty the three courses used in this event, Spyglass Hill Golf Club (25th), Poppy Hills (32nd) and Pebble Beach Golf Links (34th), all ranked in the middle relative to the other courses on the PGA TOUR in 2005. The average overall rankings for these courses are probably more indicative of course set-up for a pro-am format than the unique challenges that each course presents.

Of the individual holes, only the par-4 No. 9 hole on Pebble Beach Golf Links ranked as one of the top-75 most difficult holes on TOUR, and only two holes -- the No. 9 and the par-3 No. 5 on Pebble Beach -- were ranked in the top 100. Additionally, No. 14 on Pebble Beach was the fifth-hardest par 5 on TOUR and was one of only seven par 5s last year that did not have a player successfully land their ball on the green when attempting to reach the green in two.

Three of the shortest holes on TOUR are included in the group of holes being played this week. Two of which, the 106-yard No. 7 on Pebble Beach and the 125-yard No. 15 on Spyglass Hill, rank as the first- and third-shortest, respectively. Ultimately, the key to victory this week may actually be how players perform on these par 3s. Since 1998, only Davis Love III in 2001 has finished the event with a par 3 birdie or better percentage ranked outside of the top-10 and under 23 percent.

Par-3 Birdie or Better Percentage
Year Winner Event Rank Event Stat
1998Phil MickelsonT-10th23.10%
1999Payne StewartT-8th23.10%
2000Tiger WoodsT-2nd29.40%
2001Davis Love IIIT-3rd29.40%
2002Matt GogelT-8th23.50%
2003Davis Love IIIT-11th17.60%
2004Vijay SinghT-5th29.40%
2005Phil MickelsonT-8th23.30%

Without having ShotLink data available for all three courses, it is tricky to assess which other attributes in addition to the par 3s could be key factors in winning the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Of the statistics available, ball striking, though obvious, may actually be the best indicator of success when combined with the par 3 statistic. When Love won in 2003 he had a relatively low par 3 birdie percentage (17.4 percent), but he ranked first in ball striking. Matt Gogel in 2002, finished the event ranked outside the top-25 in the aggregate ball striking category, but he was still eighth in par 3 birdie percentage. When adding rankings for the two statistics, I found that only Gogel had a combined rank higher than 27. To put this in perspective, of the four winners of full field events on the PGA TOUR in 2006, the best total when adding the ranking for par-3 birdie or better percentage has been David Toms at the Sony Open in Hawaii who had a combined total of 34. The remaining three winners had a combined rank of at least 70.

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Rankings
Year Winner Par 3 Birdie or Better % Ball Striking Sum of Ranks
1998Phil Mickelson101727
1999Payne Stewart81321
2000Tiger Woods213
2001Davis Love III3912
2002Matt Gogel86068
2003Davis Love III11112
2004Vijay Singh52429
2005Phil Mickelson81119

Considering the par 3 birdie or better percentage, ball striking and adding in the Official World Golf Ranking through the first five events of 2006, the following players should fair well at this year’s event.

Key Statistics for the 2006 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
Player Official World Golf Ranking Par 3 Birdie or Better % Rank Par 3 Birdie or Better % Stat 2006 Ball Striking Rank Sum Of Rankings
Phil Mickelson422nd17.0%1st23
Jim Furyk746th24.2%47th93
Jeff Maggert10822nd17.0%2nd24
Kirk Triplett1302nd24.2%47th49
Jonathan Byrd15429th16.3%5th34