By Brett Avery Ah, already The Fantasy Insider has a wistful feeling for those weeks when he had only six players on his roster and didn’t need to sniff out a starting lineup. As with last week’s Buick Invitational, this week’s FBR Open should see a critical mass of players on your roster. If you don’t have six players to activate this week, take a serious look at blowing up your lineup: 49 of the 100 top-ranked players in League Championship Fantasy are in the 132-man field. The pot, as the saying goes, is beginning to boil on the PGA TOUR season. If all you are making this season is stone soup, it’s time to change kitchens. If you have seven or more players, the eternal question is who plays and who goes onto the reserve list (and then stabs you in the back with a top-10 finish and a gajillion stat points). It’s rarely a slam-dunk decision, so if you’re struggling a bit consider TFI’s Five Rules for Setting a Lineup: 1. Think of it as who to bench, not who to play. This is a subtle, yet important, distinction. Most of us pick players by starting from the top of the lineup and working our way down the list. If you’re stumped, invert the process. Seems foolishly simple, but sometimes it’s the simple solutions that solve the conundrum (Fermat’s last theorem being among the exceptions to that rule, of course). 2. Ask the $0 question: Who is most likely to miss the cut? In Salary Cap Cup four players with stellar weeks can assuage the pain of one missed cut, thereby boosting a team to a high finish. But one player missing the cut in LCF -- thereby losing out on another 36 holes of stat production -- can spell the difference between winning and losing in head-to-head format or falling further behind in rotisserie. Even the small stat gains from guys who place last among 72-hole finishers can be crucial at season’s end. 3. Ask the playground question: Can my guy beat your guy? A corollary of Rule One. In H2H the comparison is to this week’s opponent; in rotisserie it’s to the league leader. Take your bottom-ranked player and put him against the other team’s bottom-ranked player. Can your guy take the other guy? If he cannot, consider him a solid prospect for the pine. If he can, can he take the No. 7 guy? If he goes up at least two spots, play him. If everyone on your roster is better than the opposite seed on the other team’s lineup, don’t fret over who plays. Just make sure you have six guys in the active column. 4. Hotness trumps favoriteness. On the XY axis of how a player’s done the past few weeks versus how he’s done at a particular site, give added weight to the last few weeks. Yes, everyone has favorite courses and places they’ve played particularly well. But if there is one rule TFI learned in the past few seasons (and painfully so) it’s that oodles of favoriteness won’t necessarily yank a guy out of a slump. More often than not the slump continues while the hot player rolls along. 5. Compare the capabilities of your own players. We often use the “compare” function (under the Players tab) only when we’re searching for someone to acquire. If the guy who should ride the pine doesn’t stand out under the first four rules, TFI resorts to this cold-hearted look to determine who steps aside.
As always, TFI appreciates all the email from readers, both loyal and disloyal. He can’t answer every question but he reads all and loves the suggestions, tips, rants and pleas for assistance. Oh, and to the writer who called TFI a “tool” for making a mistake in an earlier column? Thanks. It’d been decades since TFI felt like he was in fourth grade. But more than that, it’s nice to know you’re moved enough by the column to write. Three players TFI might waive/trade to get onto his roster this week: • John Rollins. Three starts in the FBR Open and two of those are ties for 11th, combined with eighth in the all-around stat early in the season. Warning: TFI suggests this as a one-week move, then casting him for someone else. Consider: Missed 12 cuts last season, five by the end of March; missed 11 cuts in 2004, five by the end of March. If you really, really need a guy this week give him a look because of his Tournament Players Club of Scottsdale record. • Mike Weir. If you’re in that 1 percent of leagues where he’s available, grab him. If you’ve got trade bait, dangle it in front of his owner. 1] This guy’s recent past performance chart for the rest of the West Coast Swing is among the strongest out there. 2] Even with his uneven final nine holes at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic (three bogeys, three birdies, tied for fifth), TFI believes he’s shucked off that horrible second half of the 2005 season. • Troy Matteson. Can someone please explain to TFI why he’s only on a roster in barely more than 20 percent of leagues? He had a dizzying time on the Nationwide Tour last year and has proven with three good showings this season (tied for 31st, 24th and 28th) that he’s got the chops. Not spectacular in the stats -- and TFI doesn’t expect spectacular this season -- but he’ll play a lot and should ranks as a solid utility player in the lineup. Three players TFI might waive/trade to get off his roster this week: • Ben Crane. As TOUR Insider notes this week, a back injury sidelined him after one round of the Buick Invitational. He then withdrew from this week’s FBR Open. TFI believes the only player with a back condition that you should even remotely consider placing on your roster is Fred Couples. Get Crane off the roster until he shows he’s capable of performing. • Bubba Watson. TFI read that flurry of stories by goggle-eyed writers (slightly different from Google-eyed writers) picking their jaws off the ground after watching him pound drives at the Buick Invitational. Consequently he’s ticked up several points in the Own%. Thing is, TFI feels that final-round 79, during which Watson needed 38 putts and almost blew every sand save chance (and he had plenty), indicates he needs seasoning. If you seek 300+ drives, play him. Otherwise consider him a wet-behind-the-ears rookie. • Jay Haas. Can someone explain for TFI why two-thirds of leagues still have this guy on a roster? Yes, yes, he’ll play some PGA TOUR events this season, especially those where Bill Haas is scratching out a living. He played in the Sony Open in Hawaii (and tied for 59th) because it was a prequel to two Champions Tour events on the islands (ties for third and seventh). Lovely man but seriously, people, time to set him to the side for someone who will play far more frequently. Which brings us to This Week’s Brilliant Question: What is the power rating under the standings tab in the head-to-head league and what stats are used to come up with this rating? How does this rating relate to or affect standings? --Howell, birdie hunters The power rating plays no part in your league’s standings. It is, however, a way to judge all eight teams in a single pool instead of split into East and West divisions. The power rating borrows the eight-point scoring system used in the rotisserie format. That’s where the highest score in a statistical category earns eight points and the lowest score in a category earns one point. In this chart, a perfect score is 24, meaning a team ranks first and earns eight points each for overall record, points scored and a breakdown of how each team’s performance would have fared each week. What’s a breakdown? Last week, for example, TFI scored 188 points in his H2H league and would have defeated everyone in the league except the team he faced. So TFI’s record for the week is 6-1. So far this season he’s 17-4, which ties for first place in his league. (P.S.: That’s just the kind of comment that will lead to TFI getting slapped in the face by fate.) What is your team’s power rating? If it’s above 12 then you’re truly in the upper half of the league. If it’s below 12 it’s not yet time to panic, but you better get a move on, and quick! Rotisserie results for Buick Invitational: 56.5 points (first!). One-putts 133 (first), birdies 86 (first), bounce back 14 (second), 300+ drives 12 (tied third), eagles one (tied fifth), fairways 139 (fourth), greens 245 (fourth), money $314,808 (third), scoring 71.2 (fourth), sand saves 57 (tied fourth). See how much easier it is to compete in this format when you field six players? Good job, guys! Rotisserie lineup for FBR Open: Sergio Garcia, Brandt Jobe, Shigeki Maruyama, Geoff Ogilvy, Kenny Perry, Camilo Villegas. Also playing but reserves: Daniel Chopra, Joe Ogilvie, Ryan Palmer, Bo Van Pelt. TFI struggled with the choice between Palmer (two good starts after an opening missed cut), Daniel Chopra (three middlin’ starts) and Bo Van Pelt (nothing much). So he went with Villegas. Go figure. H2H results for Buick Invitational: Greenside Shockers 224, TFI 188. Drivers: Chad Campbell 39, Carlos Franco 20. Short game: Mark Hensby 0, Pat Perez 32. Putting: Jesper Parnevik 49, Arjun Atwal 48. Record: 2-1. The only team in the entire league that outscored TFI on the week was Greenside Shockers. One of those things? Five teams in the Pacific Tour League are 2-1, including three teams in TFI’s West Division. H2H lineup for FBR Open: rawson brothers (1-2) at TFI (2-1). Drivers: Chad Campbell and Jesper Parnevik. Short game: Justin Leonard and Kenny Perry. Putting: Arjun Atwal and Chris DiMarco. Salary Cap Cup results for Buick Invitational: The main lineup of Tiger Woods $918,000 (won!), Luke Donald $43,477 (T24), Charles Howell III $21,420 (T39), Arjun Atwal $200,812 (T4), Bill Haas $0 (missed cut) totaled $1,183,709 and placed 3,866th. Through Week 4 the team totals $2,853,842 and ranks 8,100th. Thanks, Mr. Woods, for a playoff win when you were the proverbial only dog in the hunt for TFI. The “Hey, buddy” lineup of Phil Mickelson $153,000 (T8), Brandt Jobe $267,300 (including $150,000 leader bonuses; T10), Jesper Parnevik $117,300 (T10), John Senden $0 (missed cut), Brent Geiberger $11,322 (T56) totaled $548,922 and placed 13,605th. Through Week 4 the team totals $3,011,986 and ranks 7,165th. So if TFI could have put Woods and Atwal from one lineup with Jobe, Mickelson and Parnevik from the other … Week 4 winner: Monfa Maniacs $2,016,412. Segment One leader: superblues $6,879,543. Salary Cap Cup lineup for FBR Open: Main lineup, Sergio Garcia $293,500, Chris DiMarco $290,250, Jesper Parnevik $202,500, Arjun Atwal $105,000 and Camilo Villegas $75,000. “Hey, buddy” lineup, Vijay Singh ($300,000), Phil Mickelson $296,750, Geoff Ogilvy $231,750, Ryan Moore $79,000 and Paul Azinger $75,000. Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please remember to include your team and league names and whether you’re playing a rotisserie or H2H league. |
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