Fantasy Insider: The Greenbrier Classic

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Gotta love the impact that Sean O'Hair's out-of-nowhere victory at the Canadian Open has in our world. He went from an underachieving afterthought to an exciting short-lister in the matter of four days. During a season, fantasy golf value rises slower than it falls, but when a multiple winner like O'Hair reignites, it can be like flipping a switch. Similarly, albeit in the opposite direction, when a veteran that hasn't won in a while or a rookie trends towards a first-place finish, and then snatches it, data shows that the results thereafter can give the appearance of a crash on the stock market.

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THE GREENBRIER CLASSIC

Tee Times
TOUR Report
Notable Groups
Power Rankings
Choosing Sides
Make Your Picks

While O'Hair withdrew early this week from The Greenbrier Classic, his fantasy owners can belly up to the buffet. For starters, he's now eligible for next week's no-cut, limited-field affair at Firestone. He also skyrocketed 104 spots to 43rd in FedExCup Points. Since the Playoffs reduced its starting field to 125 at The Barclays in 2009, all of the top 43 in the standings entering the postseason qualified for the BMW Championship (the third leg of the Playoffs).

Meanwhile, like many of you in the Matchups game on Facebook, a good week quickly evolved into a lost one at the Canadian Open after Mike Weir withdrew and Anthony Kim was disqualified. I had Matt McQuillan and Rickie Fowler over Weir and Kim, respectively; both would have posted victories without the results that rendered both matchups null. Therefore, I went 1-1-1. Overall through five events, I'm 12-6-3 with 31 points. After three forgettable weeks, I'm now 10 back of co-leaders TravisGolf13 and kschwab14, both of whom had a perfect week in Vancouver. So, I'll settle for my two-point lead over GarrySmits of The Florida Times-Union in the notables.

My picks for The Greenbrier Classic:
• Gary Woodland over J.B. Holmes
• Sergio Garcia over Phil Mickelson
• D.A. Points over Jimmy Walker
• Webb Simpson over Ryan Palmer
• Jeff Overton over Stuart Appleby

The PGATOUR.com staff also publishes its picks, which you can review here. Mike McAllister now leads that group (and me), but the Woodland-Holmes duel could rearrange the landscape this week.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Davis Love III ... Nothing worse than a T12 (John Deere) in his last three starts, the most recent of which resulted in a share of ninth place at the British Open. Sits a lofty 12th in greens hit and 35th in adjusted scoring average. Of the 77 that completed 72 holes here last year, he ranked last in fairways hit, but suffered only six holes over par.

12. Tommy Gainey ... Gutty performance last week. Opened with a 7-over 77 at Shaughnessy, and then backed it up with a 65, eventually converting his didn't-say-die attitude into a top 20 and a rise of three spots in FedExCup Points to 36th. Ranked T4 at the Canadian Open in greens hit and 14th in putting. Overall, he's 26th in ball-striking and 50th in adjusted scoring.

13. Andres Romero ... Good for two or three top 10s every year, he picked up his third of 2011 last week. En route to his solo third in Canada -- his second top 10 in his last four starts -- he ranked third in putting and led the field in birdies. (Also had one eagle). The premium of hitting fairways and greens at Shaughnessy is greater than it is this week, so that bodes well for momentum, given that he sits outside the top 125 on TOUR in both. Also 56th on TOUR in adjusted scoring.

14. Cameron Tringale ... Coming off a T13 at the Canadian Open. It's his fourth top 25 in his last five starts. Sub-70 in the second round in each of his last six starts with an actual scoring average of 67.33 during that span.

15. John Senden ... As much of a threat on ball-striker's tracks as he is to go low in any round. Currently second on TOUR in ball-striking and 37th in adjusted scoring. The Aussie also checks in at 0.087 in stroke gained-putting, which ranks 89th but more importantly, it's the best clip of his career.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Phil Mickelson (3)

Group B ... Webb Simpson (2); Jeff Overton (4); Spencer Levin (6); Brendon de Jonge (7); D.J. Trahan (8); Chris Kirk (10); Davis Love III (11); Andres Romero (13); John Senden (15)

Group C ... Sergio Garcia (1); Charles Howell III (5); Brandt Snedeker (9); Tommy Gainey (12); Cameron Tringale (14)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Jonathan Byrd (A) ... He's missed three straight cuts, but two occurred at the U.S. and British Opens. Arguably, the shocker came at the John Deere, where he was 7-for-7 with a win in 2007. Currently 39th on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation and has shown repeatedly that he owns a short-term memory when it comes bouncing back from mini-slumps.

Gary Woodland (C) ... Continues to manufacture, having missed just two of 10 cuts since his breakthrough at the Transitions in March. Currently 13th on TOUR in ball-striking and 23rd in adjusted scoring.

Bill Haas (B) ... While he's 15-for-18 with five top 10s this year, this is a profile pick. He's fourth on TOUR in ball-striking and 32nd in adjusted scoring.

Troy Matteson (C) ... In a bit of a groove, with top 20s in three of his last five starts, including a T18 at the Viking Classic, where he ranked T7 in greens and seventh in putting. Also reached the midpoint at Annandale in a bogey-free 12-under. Ranks 67th on TOUR in ball-striking.

Hunter Haas (C) ... Likely locked up his 2012 PGA TOUR card with a share of fourth place at the Viking Classic two weeks ago, so goal No. 1 is achieved. He led the field in greens hit at Annandale.

Scott Stallings (C) ... He's missed 12 of 20 cuts, but he's also posted six top 25s, including in both of his most recent starts. Bona fide value in long-term formats if you're not already on board.

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Tom Watson (C) ... The 56-degree wedge that he wielded to chip in at the 71st hole en route to victory at the 1982 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach is displayed outside the pro shop at The Greenbrier. He's the pro emeritus here and is eschewing the U.S. Senior Open for what is his first start in a non-major on the PGA TOUR since the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in 2007. At the media day in June, Watson explained his decision: "Last year I knew I disappointed [Greenbrier owner] Jim [Justice] not playing in the first event in the tournament here. Before he even asked me I told Jim I am playing in the Classic this year." Watson would be the ultimate flier in the Yahoo! format, but he's better served for weekly salary games.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Stuart Appleby (B) ... The defending champ has survived just one cut in his last 12 starts. In his last five, he's missed three cuts, withdrew once and was disqualified once. He ranks 171st in ball-striking and 139th in adjusted scoring average. At Greenbrier last year, he went 14-for-15 in scrambling, carding just one bogey all week, but he had illustrated much more consistent form upon arrival. Naturally, no one would have predicted his 59 to win by one on Sunday, but it was merely the icing on a tremendous week tee-to-cup and a cap on upwardly trending form.

J.B. Holmes (C) ... The fact that he's coming off a missed cut at the British Open -- his first of the year -- is irrelevant. And he projects for a top 25 this week for many reasons: he's posted top 25s in half of his 14 starts; he's also 52nd on TOUR in ball-striking and 27th in adjusted scoring. However, en route to a T16 here last year, which included a 60 in his third round on the strength of 11 birdies, he totaled just 11 birdies on his other three rounds combined. The moral of the story is that he's not as much "Danger" as he is "Temper Your Expectation."

D.A. Points (B) ... Shared fourth place here last year, but it was buoyed by a third-round 61. Since his maiden PGA TOUR victory in February, he has just one top-35 finish in 14 starts. Ball-striking (56th) and adjusted scoring (73rd) splits are encouraging, but he's a fantasy trap this week.

Brian Gay (A) ... His now-former caddie, Kip Henley, tweeted early this week that he was no longer looping for Gay. One of Gay's three missed cuts occurred at the St. Jude, where Henley was a participant and, therefore, not on Gay's bag. The jury will remain out on how the end of the relationship will influence Gay's game, so you should consider observing only this week. Gay also missed the cut at last year's Greenbrier.

Camilo Villegas (B) ... Since a T3 at the St. Jude, he's missed four cuts, two in non-majors. Currently 166th in ball-striking and 165th in adjusted scoring.

Matt Jones (B) ... Since finishing a string of three consecutive top 25s at THE PLAYERS in May, he's missed six consecutive cuts. Sits 177th on TOUR in ball-striking and 159th in adjusted scoring.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Retief Goosen (B) ... Bumped from the British Open after one round with a back injury, and then withdrew early from last week's stop in Vancouver. Assuming he's a go, this will be the first of three straight starts leading into the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and PGA Championship.

Scott Verplank (C) ... Called it quits after one round of the John Deere three weeks ago, and then passed on a spot as an alternate at the British Open. In his last five starts, he's 2-for-5 with zero top 50s, but he's a sleeper at The Greenbrier due to his ball-striking.

Nick O'Hern (C) ... Surprising withdrawal prior to his second round in Vancouver last week. No explanation was released. It's his first WD during a PGA TOUR event in three and a half years. Now riding an 0-for-4 slide.

Shaun Micheel (B) ... One of many to withdraw when the second round of the Viking Classic was suspended due to inclement weather -- he wasn't going to make the cut -- but he then withdrew early from the Canadian Open. Played through an inner ear disorder in the spring and has just one top-55 finish in his last 17 starts.

Rocco Mediate (C) ... Sidelined since withdrawing from the Travelers Championship after nine holes with a recurring elbow injury.

Peter Tomasulo (C) ... Out since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship due to an unknown injury, he's competing in this week's Utah Championship on the Nationwide Tour.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Sean O'Hair (B) ... While he withdrew from The Greenbrier, he became eligible for next week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational for winning the Canadian Open.

Kris Blanks (C) ... With his P2 at the Canadian Open, zoomed 62 spots up in FedExCup Points to 54th overall.

Angel Cabrera (B) ... Not eligible for next week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Currently 143rd in FedExCup Points.

Chris Tidland (C) ... Gained entry as the first alternate on Monday, but opted for a tee time at the Nationwide Tour's Utah Championship instead.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.