Fantasy Insider: Analysis for the WM Phoenix Open

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Feb. 1, 2011
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist

As we enter the second month of the season, remember to keep a close eye on the Official World Golf Ranking. Once next week's events are in the books, the updated formula will be used to determine the field of 64 for the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship (Feb. 23-27).

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Meanwhile, beginning with next week's update, the Major Qualifiers feature will include golfers that have also earned exemptions into the remaining two WGC events on the PGA TOUR schedule. Remaining qualifying criteria will also be added to that page.

Finally, this week's Power Rankings caused quite a stir among emailers. Love the emotion, and I respond to all inquiries, but consider saving yourself time until the Fantasy Insider is posted on Tuesdays. It's likely, or at least possible, that the content you see below will answer your question(s). I usually don't respond to emails debating the Power Rankings until the Fantasy Insider is up anyway.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Bubba Watson ... Led the field at the Farmers in distance off the tee and greens hit. (Missed just four GIR on the weekend.) Has posted consecutive top 10s just twice in his PGA TOUR career, but the first occurrence ended with a T8 at TPC Scottsdale following a share of fourth at Torrey Pines the week before. The moral of the story, however, is that he's still a loose cannon -- albeit a valuable one -- until illustrating consistency week in and week out.

12. Hunter Mahan ... Led the field in greens hit en route to his 2010 title here, missing just 12 all week. That was aided by a sharp game off the tee, where he ranked T6 in fairways (42 of 56). His short game remains very average, so he'll need to stay aggressive to go back-to-back.

13. Rickie Fowler ... Last year's runner-up opened with a 7-under 65 at Torrey Pines North last week, but played the South in 2-over the rest of the way. He faded to finish T20, and I'll chalk it up to rust.

14. Ryan Palmer ... Took the week off after a solo fourth at the Bob Hope, where he co-led the field in birdies. Ranked second in birdies at last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open en route to a T14 payday. Also placed T2 in 2006 here. Bottom line, he's earned a long-term promotion in our consciousness.

15. Marc Leishman ... Missed the cut by 11 swings in his first appearance year last year, but ignore that. He's coming off a tidy T9 at the Farmers, where he absorbed just six bogeys all week. The Aussie continues to prove that he's a gamer in difficult conditions and on tougher tracks. Look for something special on Thursday before the weather improves.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

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  • Group A ... Dustin Johnson (1); Phil Mickelson (2); Nick Watney (3); Marc Leishman (15)

    Group B ... Ben Crane (4); Bill Haas (6); Kevin Na (10); Bubba Watson (11); Hunter Mahan (12); Rickie Fowler (13)

    Group C ... Jhonattan Vegas (5); Brandt Snedeker (7); Ryan Moore (8); Charles Howell III (9); Ryan Palmer (14)

    Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

    Jerry Kelly (C) ... You'd think that he'd eat up the vibe and flourish here, but his lone payday in six starts was in his first appearance in 1996, and that was a forgettable T48. However, he's started his season with a pair of top 15s (first time he's done that since 2003, the first year he eclipsed $2M in earnings). All nine of his rounds this year are sub-70, and he's suffered just 13 bogeys in his 162 holes.

    Andres Romero (B) ... If I told you that we don't know what the Argentine will give us at anytime, you'd ask for information that you don't already know. However, he's the kind of hybrid that could surprise at this tournament. He circled 20 birdies in posting a T14 here last year, and was one of six with all four rounds in the 60s.

    Brendon de Jonge (B) ... It's a gimme (read: cheating) to toss a top-25 machine into this category, but course-history buffs will note his missed cut here a year ago. He missed it on the number with a bogey at his 36th hole.

    Vaughn Taylor (B) ... Like de Jonge, you expect Taylor to pile up the top 25s. And like Romero, Taylor was one of the six to stay sub-70 here last here, finishing solo seventh, his best of six showings. Taylor had just six bogeys all week, but none in the final round (68). Coming off a T25 at the Hope.

    Troy Matteson (C) ... Riding the dialed-in dynamic here. Coming off a quiet tie for ninth at the Farmers, where he posted a seven-birdie 67 in the final round. It was a wild week, with three eagles and three double bogeys, but he ranked T9 in greens and T11 in putting.

    Mark Wilson (C) ... A classic fit for the veteran ball-striker mold. Of course, he's one of the four winners this year, but he also has a pair of top 15s in three starts at this event.

    Danger (Yahoo! Group)

    Yahoo! lineup
    Starters:
    Group A: Dustin Johnson
    Group B: Ben Crane; Rickie Fowler
    Group C: Jhonattan Vegas
    Bench:
    Group A: Phil Mickelson
    Group B: Kevin Na; Bubba Watson
    Group C: Brandt Snedeker
    Yahoo! stats:
    622 points; 19,790th place
    One and done:
    Brandt Snedeker
    2011 earnings: $265,300.00
    Duffer:
    Geoff Ogilvy
    2011 earnings: $66,300.00

    Robert Allenby (B) ... Off to a shocking 0-for-2 start. First time he's missed two consecutive cuts since the summer of 2009.

    Sean O'Hair (B) ... First start of the year. Give him a week to regain some form.

    Alex Cejka (C) ... Second straight week in this portion of the feature. He delivered with a missed cut at the Farmers, and sets up for another weekend off for what would be his fifth consecutive missed cut at this event.

    Charley Hoffman (A) ... Hope you dodged him as suggested a week ago. He hit just 23 greens at Torrey Pines and still required 66 puts. He's 1-for-4 with a runner-up (2009) at this event. Remain hands-off.

    Nathan Green (C) ... Has cashed in all five of his trips to TPC Scottsdale, but hasn't posted a top 30. He's started his season with three missed cuts in as many starts.

    Tommy Gainey (C) ... Hasn't broken 70 in eight rounds, starting the year 0-for-3. Unless he logs a payday, he project to fall at least 35 spots in the reshuffle. For the entire list, here.

    Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

    Geoff Ogilvy (A) ... First start since taking stitches for the injury on the index finger of his right hand. No top 15s in nine starts here.

    Ricky Barnes (A) ... Giving it his latest go after getting sidelined by a bulging disc, first prior to the Sony Open, and then after 45 holes of the Bob Hope Classic.

    Chris Kirk (B) ... Took a cortisone shot for a neuroma in his right foot in advance of last week's Farmers. Opened with a 66, but plummeted to finish T44.

    Bryce Molder (B) ... Managed just four holes at Torrey Pines before withdrawing due to the flu (and on his 32nd birthday no less). Makes for a sleeper this week though. Finished T8 here last year, and won't be overwhelmed off the tee.

    Brett Wetterich (C) ... No known current malady, but this is his last start on his Major Medical Extension. Needs no worse than a three-way share of fifth place to meet the monetary goal. If he falls short, he'll fall into the last position of priority ranking No. 27. For all medicals, please click here.

    Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

    Harrison Frazar (C) ... Down to nine starts on his Major Medical Extension.

    Derek Lamely (B) ... One of two golfers that teed it up in the first four tournaments. Matt Bettencourt is the other, and he's in the field this week.

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