2011 Season in Review: Fantasy rankings revisited

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Stan Badz/PGA TOUR

K.J. Choi won THE PLAYERS Championship en route to his best season on the PGA TOUR.

Nov. 1, 2011
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist

One of my favorite tasks at the end of the PGA TOUR's official money season is to revisit my full-membership fantasy projections, which you can review here. For every Webb Simpson at No. 73 -- "Only a matter of time before this former phenom gets his." -- there is a Vaughn Taylor at No. 47 -- "He's a machine and he's in his prime." Of course, Simpson went on to have an insane season (although it was one with such a high level of success that probably only he and his inner circle could have expected), but Taylor lost his mojo after seven extremely reliable years.

Furthermore, the preseason ranking alone for a handful is reason for pause. Consider Tiger Woods (1), Gary Woodland (187), Chez Reavie (198) and Keegan Bradley (202) just to name a few. But those are the extremes.

I welcome you to sift through this lot of 250 that entered 2011 with some form of PGA TOUR status through Priority Ranking No. 28 (Non-exempt Medical Extensions). This can be a wonderful tool is assessing relative value in full-season formats, not just in salary games. Also, it's only a review but a couple of nods to the future are peppered in where it seems most worthy.

NOTE: The "Salary Projection" column is how I valued each golfer in the original feature. The "Actual Result" allows for a margin of 10 percent above and below his 2010 earnings. If a golfer's earnings sat inside 10 percent either way, he was a salary "PUSH."

BOLTON'S RANKINGS REVISITED: 1-50 | 51-100 | 101-150 | 151-200 | 201-250 | Preseason projections

Bolton's projections revisited

Nos. 1-50

Rank	Golfer	Salary projection	Actual result	Comment
1	Tiger Woods	PLUS	MINUS	Winless for the second straight year. His $660K is a career low.
2	Phil Mickelson	PLUS	PUSH	Potential plateau at $3.76 million? Won an event for the eighth straight year.
3	Steve Stricker	PUSH	PUSH	Virtually unownable in salary leagues but still a stud otherwise.
4	Jim Furyk	MINUS	MINUS	As expected, he took a tumble but that he banked less than one-third of his 2010 haul was still shocking.
5	Dustin Johnson	MINUS	PUSH	Finished fifth on the money list with $4.3 million (down slightly from 2010!) and did it without breaking a sweat.
6	Ernie Els	MINUS	MINUS	Only top 10 in 21 starts occurred in last start(Frys.com). Finished a career-worst 93rd on the money list.
7	Hunter Mahan	PUSH	PUSH	Last full season in his 20s. No victories but came close to matching two-win 2010 in earnings.
8	Retief Goosen	PUSH	MINUS	One top 10 in 16 starts. Finished a career-worst 108th on the money list.
9	Paul Casey	PUSH	MINUS	Nagging turf toe led to bad habits and a bad season. Finished 136th in earnings and lost fully exempt status.
10	Matt Kuchar	MINUS	MINUS	Came within $200K of being a salary PUSH but his days as a buy in salary leagues are over. Superb investment otherwise.
11	Lee Westwood	MINUS	MINUS	Three top 10s in 10 starts but barely cleared $1.3 million as non-member. Can't just dip your toe in here; you must dive in or abstain.
12	Zach Johnson	PLUS	MINUS	Matched a career low with 23 starts. His $1.88 million is third-worst output in eight years on TOUR.
13	Robert Allenby	PUSH	MINUS	Turned 40 in July. Earned $1.45 million, lowest of last six years.
14	Tim Clark	MINUS	MINUS	Managed only four starts due to injured right elbow, made only two cuts and still finished 138th on money list. Had season-ending surgery Aug. 10.
15	Nick Watney	PLUS	PLUS	Bullish projection paid off in the form of two wins, over twice as much in earnings and first in FedExCup points entering the Playoffs.
16	Rickie Fowler	PUSH	MINUS	Made four fewer starts than 2010, which was planned, but remained a non-winner. Turns 23 in December and a must-get for 2012.
17	Camilo Villegas	PUSH	MINUS	Trading spikes (2008, 2010) with baselines (2009, 2011). In last go as a 20something, salvaged seemingly lost season with three top 10s in final four starts.
18	Luke Donald	MINUS	PLUS	Earned a then-career-high $3.665 million in 2010, only to bump it by another $3M this year. The 33-year-old is defining what it means to be in his prime.
19	K.J. Choi	PLUS	PLUS	Hope you were on board here. PLAYERS victory was worth nearly 78 percent of his earnings, but he posted another seven top 10s on top of it. Career-best fourth on the money list.
20	Geoff Ogilvy	PLUS	MINUS	Went in the other direction in earnings despite taking a break in the fall of 2010 preceding a torrid stretch in Australia.
21	Graeme McDowell	PLUS	MINUS	Opened with three top 10s but managed just one top-30 finish in his last 13 starts.
22	Ryan Moore	PUSH	MINUS	Four top 10s among 18 cuts made is a fine season, but he had six top 10s in both 2009 and 2010. Still stuck on one career win in six full years on TOUR.
23	Justin Rose	MINUS	PUSH	Won BMW. Second straight $3 million season. Made a fantasy-friendly 23 starts, most in five years.
24	Martin Kaymer	PLUS	MINUS	The non-member banked over 63 percent of his $1.339 in earnings with a runner-up at the Accenture Match Play, his only top 10 of the year.
25	Rory McIlroy	PUSH	PUSH	The U.S. Open champ earned $2.344 million, most among non-members, but still couldn't match 2010 bankroll as a member. Could be the salary coup of 2012.
26	Sean O'Hair	PLUS	MINUS	Returned to the winner's circle but his paycheck at the RBC Canadian Open was worth 63 percent of his overall earnings. It was his only top 10.
27	Bo Van Pelt	MINUS	MINUS	Remained a must-own for all but salary gamers. Suffered the expected fall-off, but still banked over $2.34 million to finish 29th on the money list. Late win in Malaysia is a juicy bonus.
28	Adam Scott	PLUS	PLUS	Maxed out in his 18 starts. Confident victory at Firestone. Close call at Augusta National. Second in the all-around ranking.
29	Padraig Harrington	PLUS	MINUS	Three top 10s but zero top-seven finishes, so he barely cracked $800K in 14 cuts made. Turned 40 in August.
30	Stewart Cink	PLUS	MINUS	Career-low one top 10 (T9, Wells Fargo). Eight missed cuts most since rookie year (12) of 1997. Zero top 25s in last nine starts.
31	Anthony Kim	PUSH	MINUS	Matched career high with 26 starts but earned a career-worst $1.085M.
32	Jason Day	PUSH	PLUS	Winless, but 10 top 10s, finishing ninth on the money list. Shaved nearly two strokes off final-round scoring average from 2010.
33	Bill Haas	MINUS	PLUS	The FedExCup champ went 1-2 in playoffs, surviving the one that meant the most. Seven top 10s. His 26 starts co-led those inside top 10 in earnings.
34	Bubba Watson	MINUS	PUSH	Career-low three starts without a payday. First multiple-win season.
35	Ben Crane	MINUS	MINUS	Late victory at The McGladrey accounted for nearly 43 percent of his total earnings. Overall, a standard season for the viral video star.
36	Heath Slocum	PUSH	MINUS	Highest on money list (112th) of those without a top 10. Best finishes were on the most difficult par 71 (T11, Congressional) and second-toughest par 72 (T12, Bay Hill).
37	Kevin Na	PUSH	PLUS	Cleared a salary PUSH by a little over $112K. Earned first career victory (JT Shriners). Only negative: missed 18 cuts in 81 starts from 2008-2010, then missed 11 in last 24 this season.
38	J.B. Holmes	PUSH	MINUS	Posted four top 10s in 16 starts before having "relatively low-risk surgery" on his brain on Sept. 1. Scheduled to return to live action at Shark Shootout on Dec. 4.
39	Charley Hoffman	PUSH	MINUS	Only two top 20s. Co-runner-up at Valero Texas Open worth over 37 percent of overall earnings in 27 starts.
40	D.J. Trahan	PUSH	MINUS	Finished 125th on the money list by $1,431 over rookie Bobby Gates. Trahan's lone top 10 occurred at Viking Classic.
41	Ian Poulter	PLUS	MINUS	Only top 10 in 16 starts was at season-opening stop at Kapalua. Earned $739K, his lowest output since joining the PGA TOUR in 2005.
42	Arjun Atwal	PLUS	MINUS	After his breakthrough win at the 2010 Wyndham, expectations rose. He made 29 starts this year but posted just five top 25s. Lone top 10 was a T8 at the Byron Nelson.
43	John Rollins	PLUS	PLUS	It wasn't the projected $2 million season, but he posted four top 10s, including two in the Fall Series. Remains substantive roster value in deeper formats.
44	Martin Laird	PUSH	PLUS	Third straight season featuring an increase in earnings, but it was front-loaded a bit. Six top 10s in 23 starts but none in his last 10. Still competed enough late to deflect skeptics.
45	Ryan Palmer	MINUS	MINUS	Steady year with three top 10s including a playoff loss at the Byron Nelson. His $1.85 million was second-highest career total next to 2010.
46	Rory Sabbatini	PLUS	PLUS	Fulfilled projection with an increase of over 56 percent in earnings from 2010. Half of his 18 cuts made were top 25s, including Honda win. Missed just six cuts.
47	Vaughn Taylor	PUSH	MINUS	One of fantasy gamers' biggest disappointments. Entering with seven straight seasons in seven figures and in his prime, he failed to post a top 20 in 27 starts and earned just $423K, losing status.
48	Carl Pettersson	PUSH	MINUS	Tough to go 21-for-27 with five top 10s and fall short of a push this year even though he didn't hit $2 million in 2010. Worth noting that all top 10s occurred in different months.
49	Charles Howell III	PLUS	PLUS	Despite another winless season, he remained a fantasy hoss with 25 cuts made and 30 starts. Match career-high seven top 10s.
50	John Senden	PLUS	PLUS	Turned 40 in April and enjoyed his best year with a putter, finishing 64th in Strokes Gained-Putting. Career-high 14 top 25s. Missed setting personal high in earnings by less than $11K.

CLICK HERE FOR RANKINGS 51-100

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