Guesses with insight on players who take the next step in 2011

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Anthony Kim starts the year No. 31 in the world, but could climb fast if his thumb is fully healed.

The assignment in the inbox? Give us a peek at players primed to take the next step in 2011.

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Simple right? Not so much.

Dare you to admit you knew Louis Oosthuizen was going to pull off what he did in 2010. Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer? You might have guessed they would have really good seasons, but it would have been a reach -- last January, at least -- to predict great years. If you'd singled anyone out for a serious leap, it might have been Rory McIlroy. And, yes, he had us at that 62 at the Quail Hollow Championship and he flew up the world rankings. But we were thinking major.

So before we go any further, remember that predictions are, well, guesses with insight.

No matter how many stats you scan, no matter how much history you can absorb, no matter how well you dissect swings, strengths and personalities, no matter how much credence you give to expectations, your thoughts on the future really come down to the intangibles. Things you can't put a finger on. Think gut. All too often -- although most won't admit it -- think blind luck.

In other words, the following should give you something to think about. Another player or two for your watch list. A bit of mental lint that might or might not stick. Discuss or grumble. Just whatever you do, don't bet the farm. Yet.

Anthony Kim. How is he on the list? How is he not? Three wins and a great 2008 Ryder Cup put him in that Kaymer/McDowell range circa last January. He seemed primed to for big things last spring -- four top-10s, a playoff win at the Shell Houston Open and a third at his second Masters -- but he never fully bounced back from surgery on his left thumb. He was maturing exponentially before the surgery. Has been ranked as high as sixth in the world, but starts the year as No. 31. If he's healthy, thumbs up.

Rickie Fowler. No-brainer, right? We're thinking so. Rookie of the Year is one thing -- and seven top-10s and from college-to-26th in the world made him this column's choice. Breaking through with not just one win, but a couple? And contending at a major? Quite another. If you paid attention to nothing else, flash back to the way he finished his singles match at the Ryder Cup -- four consecutive birdies to halve the match. That alone sets the tone for 2011.

Rory McIlroy. Pads his resume with wins. Next step, majors. Lots of players never get there, so, yes, that qualifies for a breakout season -- to the next level.

Paul Casey and Ian Poulter. Top 10 players with something to prove. Like Rors, next step, majors. Casey has the top-10 edge there. Will we look at them differently with one? Absolutely.

Nick Watney. Two career wins. Two major top-10s in 2010 (seventh at the Masters, a share of seventh at the British Open). Not Bubba Watson or Dustin Johnson off the tee, but not far behind. Solid all-around game. In that Watson-Kim area in the world rankings at 36th. He expects more. So should we.

Matteo Manassero. The Italian teenager is a massive talent and personality. The youngest European Tour winner in history (2010 Castello Masters) plans to make us take note of what he does on the European Tour and at the majors and World Golf Championships. Big things coming.

Jeff Overton. Boom, baby. Talented player who finally steps out of his own way. Ryder Cup gave him more than he realizes. Three runner-up finishes and two thirds in 2010. Deep breath. Hold that temper. Gets it done.

Jamie Lovemark and Jhonattan Vegas. Lovemark led the Nationwide Tour money list in 2010; Vegas finished seventh. Both won, both have stepped up to the TOUR. Lovemark played a USC; Vegas at Texas. Vegas is golf's version of a linebacker (6-foot-2, 230) who bombs it off the tee. Lovemark was a top-10 machine. Lots of hype for Lovemark, who works with Sean Foley; not so much for Vegas. Don't expect too much, but assume they're in for very good seasons. And, for Vegas, a lot of people misspelling his first name.

Melanie Hauser is a columnist for PGATOUR.COM and can be reached at melaniehauser@gmail.com. Her views do not necessarily represent the views of the PGA TOUR.